Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 3/23 Analysis
Best Bet: ALWAYS A HOTSHOT (5th)
Spot Play: DEVILS PEAK (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/1,2,6/1,2,3 /4,6/6 = $3.60
EARLY PICK 4: 4,6/6/2,5/1,2 = $8
LATE PICK 4: 1,2/6,7/1,5,6/1,4,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 214 - 702 / $1,169.90 (-$234.10)
BEST BETS: 31 - 64 / $107.70 (-$20.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 64 / $119.30 (-$8.70)
Race 1
(4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP is just too sharp for these right now and his roll should continue. (1) LORIS ROCK STAR was no match for the choice late, but he should get another good trip up front here and contend. (6) RACEMUP will likely help set this up for the choice but he can hang around for a share. (5) OH K MAN will be closing as always, but I'm not sure his kick can match the choice's at this point.
Race 2
(1) BETWEEN THE SHEETS should sit the same golden trip here as he did when winning on March 18th; call to repeat. (6) WESTSLUCKYTERROR is in excellent form but he may need to hold off the choice deep in the lane here. I'll use both in the Pick 5. (2) SPEED TO MARKET can be closer here if he gets a better spot early which is quite possible from this post. (7) R U TALKIN found these tougher last time, but he's always dangerous if he gets his striking range at the head of the lane.
Race 3
(2) DEVILS PEAK was heavily bet off the claim last week and he didn't disappoint. His price will be much better here and I'll call him to big class-dropper (3) ROCK THIS WAY, who simply isn't dependable enough for me to take 4 to 5 here. (1) SENIOR K threw in a clunker last time, but he was going well before then and Roy sticks; using underneath. (5) OFFICER JONES - dropping slightly - can contend for a slice here.
Race 4
(4) BIG BANG BOOM takes a big class plunge here, and he usually converts in these spots; top call. (6) LISVINNIE found his best form last week and if he repeats that effort, he should contend here, too. (5) CROFT BAY N comes off a failed first-over effort against should be in the mix here, likely at a price. (3) NICKLE BAG is racing better recently. Keep him in mind when making Tri and Super bets.
Race 5
(6) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT looks like a multi-race single here taking a big drop and drawing the best post. (2) HEZA THRILL N also drops, but he may have a tough time trying to chase down the choice. (5) LINCOLNJAMES can be much closer if he gets a better start this time. (7) JAYDENS PLACE is always a good one to use on the bottom of Superfectas.
Race 6
Tough race, but it appears that class-dropping (5) MAJOR HILL won't have much competition for the lead early so he should get a good trip either on the engine or in the pocket; top call. (2) LEGAL BETTOR got bumpy in the lane last time, but he was given a week off so perhaps he rebounds here. (7) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN will be closing as usual, but he will likely need to pass them all which is unlikely to happen in this spot. (4) MESSI N may trip out near the front which should result in a board finish.
Race 7
(1) ODD BALL looked like a new horse racing out of Vanderkemp's barn. If he can replicate that last effort he can repeat here. (2) VEYRON fits this class well and Roy will have him winging. He's the one to catch. (8) MIGHTY NICKY raced well last week but with his style he's hard to love on top. (7) WESMONT has improving form and there are worse stabs you can take on this card.
Race 8
Two class-droppers likely decide this and I'll favor (6) BRODYS SCRAPPER who will likely get position on his main rival (7) BETTOR OPS N here. I'll use both in the late Pick 4, however. (3) AMERICAN VIRGIN dominated weaker. I'll use him underneath in this spot. (2) TORRIN HANOVER races well every week and he should be right there again.
Race 9
(6) TRACEUR HANOVER is razor-sharp right now and gets the call to threepeat. (1) MAROMA BEACH was much better last week and he's in with an upset chance here if he can avoid a first-up trip. (5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED was getting to the winner late last week and he's too consistent to dismiss. (3) ISITFRIDAYYET can share with a better trip here.
Race 10
(5) LEAFS AND WINGS has shipped in and won at Mohawk Park a few times in the past years. I'll try him as a price play here hoping that history repeats. (4) MUSELLSFRMBRUSSELS is worth a long look on the barn change alone. (1) KAZIMOTO has fired off the layoff before so I'll use him in this late Pick 4. (6) SHADOW OF LINDY is racing better at this level and he should take another slice here. (9) MT STERLING MAFIA would be ranked higher if he drew better.