Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 3/2 Analysis
Best Bet: MANOFMANYIMAGES (6th)
Spot Play: XELENE BAYAMA (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,3/2,4,5/3,6,7/1,4,5/4,5 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,5/4,5/1/2,3,8 = $18
LATE PICK 4: 2,3,8/5/2,3/3,4,9 = $18
MEET STATS: 181 - 592 / $1,006.70 (-$177.30)
BEST BETS: 25 - 53 / $89.10 (-$16.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 14 - 53 / $110.30 (+$4.30)
Race 1
(2) MAJOR MUSCLE moves inside, and she gets to drop to a lower level than she won at on December 17th. She should be tough here. (3) ETRUSCAN HANOVER was very good last week when finishing second to a big chalk, but he could get hammered at the windows and he is always a risky proposition; your call. (8) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY should be closing to take a share with the drop in class. (7) TOUCHDOWN AS also drops, and he won at this class five starts back, but this field is tougher.
Race 2
(2) WESTLUCKY TERROR left, got shuffled then was flying late in a very good seasonal debut and he gets my nod off that solid effort. (5) R BAZINGGA has license to be much better here returning to a 7-day cycle and I'll use him in the Pick 5. (4) BIT OF LUCK fits well vs. these and he's another in with a decent chance if he can work out a better trip. (6) DISMISSAL SLIP returns from a break and he'll likely be closing for a small slice here.
Race 3
(3) XELENE BAYAMA figures to get another good setup here and she has a decent chance to take her third straight. (6) MANHATTAN PLAY gets a much better post here and she should get into play earlier; using. (7) BIG LIS disappointed at adds-on in her first start out of the Moreau barn, but she can improve here and if she clears right away at the start that will make her more dangerous. (9) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE fits well here, but from this post a smaller share may be her ceiling.
Race 4
(4) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP passed his rivals like they were standing still in the deep stretch last week and I'll stick with him despite the class rise. (1) LONE WOLF TERROR was very sharp late in his mile, too, and he should be right there if he behaves. (5) OH K MAN is another closer who figures to benefit from a setup here; using. (7) DOVUTO HANOVER is likely to face an early challenge from the gelding lined up to his right which makes the stalkers look best here.
Race 5
(5) MCKINNEY was a big winner last time he raced this low on January 26th. He should handle these if he gets a reasonable trip. (4) LISVINNIE races best out of the Johnson barn and his 26 2/5 kicker last time indicates he may be ready to fire his best shot; using. (1) DRUNKONAPLANE raced big against a sharp shipper last time he raced in this class and he should be the other main contender here. (7) MACHAL JORDAN was airborne late last time, but he may not be close enough turning for home to threaten for the win here.
Race 6
(1) MANOFMANYIMAGES drops to a likely spot considering he won a couple of levels higher as recently as six starts back. (6) ADVERSITY races better one class lower but he comes off a sharp win and he can close for at least a share here. (2) CAULFIELD is getting closer and no one was beating the horse that won his last start. He's worth a look here. (8) SETANTA can pass many of these in the back half and hit the Super.
Race 7
Tough race with several possibilities. (3) FREDDY BEAR moves up off a sharp win which should help his price here. He may trip out in this spot. (2) AMERICAN VIRGIN should be close here dropping and drawing inside. (8) TORRIN HANOVER is as sharp as they come, and he will be right there if he can work out a trip. (9) OFFICER JONES will be passing horses late but at this level a fringe finish is likely for him.
Race 8
(5) BETTOR OPS N has been ultra-impressive since he shipped overseas, and he should continue his climb to the top class here. (7) BRODYS SCRAPPER is razor-sharp right now and he should be an exacta factor here. (2) MONGOLIAN HERO N fits better at this level and he should work out a trip and hit the ticket. (1) BRAVE WORLD steps back up off a sharp win, but these are tougher, and a small share is likely for him here.
Race 9
Not many horses on this circuit have been sharper than (3) LEGAL BETTOR the past two months and he will be the one to hold off again here. (2) DEETZY couldn't reach a very sharp winner last week, but he should pose a strong challenge here. (1) POINTOMYGRANSON exits the same race as Deetzy and he should work out a trip and take a share here. (8) BIG BANG BOOM drops, and he should be up on the pace early. He has some upset possibilities.
Race 10
(3) PAULY WALLY hasn't been far back vs. much better recently. He's likely the chalk here, but he should prove tough to beat at this level. (9) CARTOON DADDY races well at this level and the outer post helps his price. He could add some value to the late Pick 4. (4) CROFT BAY N also drops, and he should be a player racing from close range here. (7) DREAMY FELLA likely rallies for a smaller share. (5) JAYDENS PLACE finishes on the edges frequently; using on the bottom.