Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 2/29 Analysis

Meet Stats – 190 – 612 / $1055.00 (-$169.00)
Best Bets – 25 – 59 / $83.30 (- $34.70)
Spot Plays – 13 – 60 / $87.30 (-$28.50)
Best Bet – THIS DRAGON ROCKS – (1ST)
Spot Play – HEZA THRILL N – (3RD)
Early Pick 5 – 3/5,6/3,4,8/4,5,6,8/5,6,8 = $14.40
Late Pick 5 – 2,3/3,7/4,6,7/2,3,4/3,5,6 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 4,5,6,8/5,6,8/2,3/3,7 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 3,7/4,6,7/2,3,4/3,5,6 = $54

Race 1 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**

(3) THIS DRAGON ROCKS gets to drop to the bottom conditioned level here and if she stays flat, she has no excuse vs. this group. (1) TURBO DIVA is the biggest threat on paper, but she missed time due to a vet scratch. Demand a price if you like her on top. (4) DONTBRUISECARRIE is always a good one to use on the bottom of the Tri it seems. (2) TWIN B TIPSTER should sit a decent following trip here and emerge in the lane to grab a share.

Race 2- NW 5 (F&M 7) RACES OR $97,000 2 (F&M $87,500) LT

(6) BLAZING TRAIL finished a bang-up third in the Pepsi series final and he should take beating in here. (5) OKEANOS is no doubt fast enough for these and he looks ready, the question is how aggressively will he be driven in his first start of 2020? (2) ZIG ZAG should go better here if he trots the entire mile; using underneath. (3) CLUB BELVEDERE has been racing great against her own gender. She should work her way into the Tri or Super here.

Race 3 – NW $11,700 L5 or $24,000 L10 or NW $75,000 LT

(8) HEZA THRILL N may not get bet much here, but he should get an honest pace to stalk and he is capable of mowing these down if he advances in a live flow. (4) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ is in terrific form and he is another stalking type who could get a great setup here; using. (3) NIRVANA SELSTER is probably unlucky to be 0 for 7 this year and his sharp gate speed always puts him in the mix. (5) JULERICA is always passing horses it seems and he should be coming on late here to grab a small share.

Race 4 – NW 4 (F&M 5) RACES OR $45,000 (F&M $60,000) LT – Pick 4

This race has the feel of one where a closer mows them all down late and I’ll take a stab with (8) KNOPFLER, who raced decently in the recently concluded Pepsi series. (6) VILLEFRANCHE AS raced okay for Henry last time, but she seems better when she makes her move later, which he may have learned in that start; using. (5) LIFETIME ROYALTY is capable of better if he stays trotting this time and he could get a good trip near the front. He’s another to consider for early multi-race tickets. (4) P C JUSTA DREAM won three straight with Young driving earlier this year. Give her a look for the exotics.

Race 5 – NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10

(8) BRODYS SCRAPPER drops farthest here and you’ll notice he won a class higher than this six starts back. Cullen should put hi into play early. (5) DREAMFAIR B J gets post and class relief and he may blast early looking for the pocket; using. (6) JAYDENS PLACE picks up McNair here with Drury committed to an Auciello trainee. He is sharp and dangerous. (7) POINTOMYGRANSON is another class dropper to consider here but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot.

Race 6 – NW $16,000 L5 or $29,500 L9 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 – Pick 5

(2) PEACE OUT POSSE gets a better post here which should mean an easier trip and he gets my nod in this spot. (3) EAST END keeps coming close at this level. He should be the one to catch here. (5) MAKE SOME LUCK is quite capable of knocking these off if he is ready to roll. Tab the tote for clues. (6) IDEAL JET is always dangerous with his blazing early speed and if he is let go at a long price, he wouldn’t be the worst stab.

Race 7 – NW $11,700 L5 or $25,000 L10 or NW $75,000 LT - Pick 4

(7) MILITARY SECRET was just short last week despite having missed three weeks between starts and he should be sharper and tougher here. (3) P L JACKSON was motoring late two starts back at this level and he figures to contend here on the class drop; using. (6) CLIFFHANGER was used up early last time when facing tougher. He fits better here, and he can hit the ticket. (1) THE REV should ride a following trip to a top four finish in this spot.

Race 8 – PREFERRED

(7) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN is razor-sharp and although this is a big class jump, he may be up to it; sight nod. (6) SO MUCH MORE has been perhaps the most impressive racehorse on the ground the past month and she is hard to leave off multi-race tickets. (4) EASY LOVER HANOVER is always in the hunt, but I prefer to use him underneath against the two sharp choices. (5) ISITFRIDAYYET is hot and on the rise and he can take a share here despite facing tougher.

Race 9 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $62,000 LT

Class droppers (4) BLU CREW and (3) MCPAT will likely fight it out here for the win. Slight nod to the former who may get the jump on the latter, but I'll use both in late multi-race tickets. (2) CONBOYVILLE was in all out-sprint mode from the start last time and he stopped in the lane. He gets driver Young back here which should mean he will take a more patient approach; using underneath. (5) BIG BULLY will pass a few of these late; consider for the bottom of Tris and Supers.

Race 10 – NW $8,000 L5 or $18,000 L10

(3) NICKLE BAG is sharp – look at the 26 1/5 third 1/4 he paced last week – and stepping up one level here should help his price. He is capable of beating these. (5) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT is the class of this field and if he is ready to roll, he should be right there. (6) EXIT SMILING bounced back last week with a big effort now he jumps two levels, but he can contend at a price. (1) MAJOR HILL has raced better recently, and he can sit a nice following trip here and take a small share. Similarly, (2) WEATHERLY should work his way into the Super or High 5.