Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 2/16 Analysis
Best Bet: MESSI N (7th)
Spot Play: DARKEST SECRET (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5/1,2,6/2,4,5/1,2,4,5/4,5,9 = $43.20
EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,4,5/4,5,9/1,7/2,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 2,8/5,10/5,6/4,5,6 = $24
MEET STATS: 155 - 506 / $874.70 (-$137.30)
BEST BETS: 20 - 45 / $71.30 (-$18.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 45 / $95.20 (+$5.20)
Race 1
(5) POINTTOMYGRANSON sat too long then had no chance vs. a sharp winner who paced his mile only one tick slower than the winner of the Preferred pace that night. He drops again and he has the ability to control this race if he gets activated early. (1) SENIOR K won last time he raced in this class and his price should be good here. I'll use him in the Pick 5. (6) FREDDY BEAR will get there one of these nights racing for Auciello, but I prefer to use him underneath in this spot. (9) VELOCITY DRIVEN will be winding up from far back again but starting from out there I doubt that he'll pass them all.
Race 2
(6) SANDBETWEENURTOES woke up with a big win on the class drop last week and perhaps with that win under her belt, she'll double up here vs. mares she really should handle. (1) DON'T STOP BELIVEIN figures to sit a great trip here and she's in with an upset chance. (2) LINWOOD BEACHGIRL should wake up here moving inside and having had a couple of tighteners; using. (4) LIBBYS IDEA is interesting shipping in, but she may need a race over the track.
Race 3
(5) LMC MASS OAK drops back to the class where he was flying late two starts back and he should bring a good price facing two fresh claims. (4) REVENUE AGENT goes to the top barn off the claim when winning and he should be tough here. (2) BEE IN CHARGE is also an obvious contender going to the Shepherd barn off the claim and he'll take plenty of action. (1) PEPE DI JESOLO should tag along close to the front and stay for a share.
Race 4
(1) CARTOON DADDY couldn't quite reach a class-dropping logical winner last time, but he looks best here. (5) JAYDENS PLACE hasn't won in a long time, but his recent fast kickers make him interesting here as an upset prospect. (4) SINGLE WHITE SOCK drops to a spot where he should be prominent, and he is another win-shy type that could pop here. (2) LUKE AND DUKE could get a great trip near the front and that makes him another to consider for the multis.
Race 5
(5) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN got stalled on bad cover last week but still blasted home for a slice. The shape of this race seems to favor his typical style; top call. (4) GO WEST GO FAST's 26 3/5 kicker vs. a tough group sticks out and he should improve here. (9) BETTOR OPS N was impressive in his North American debut and even starting from out there he is a contender here. (6) MAJOR HILL steps up but he should be up near the front throughout and stay for a slice.
Race 6
(1) DARKEST SECRET was game in defeat to a tough winner at Flamboro after winning in this class here two starts back. He gets the nod here. (7) BEACHIN LINDY similarly was dead-game when beaten by a sharp and improving foe last time and he rates a long look here. (2) LEGAL POWER should leave better here which puts him in the mix. (3) LEGAL BETTOR faces tougher here and a smaller share is likely.
Race 7
(8) MESSI N raced okay uncovered on the rim considering he had missed three weeks between starts. He drops into a logical spot here and a Roy speed blast seems likely. (2) BIG BANG BOOM could pocket up early here which would give him an outside shot to nail the choice late. (4) CROFT BAY N should contend from close range on the class drop, but I'll use underneath. (5) JOES BID wasn't far off vs. a strong winner and he may sneak onto the Super again here.
Race 8
(5) CATCH THE DREAM and (10) O NARUTAC PERFETTO lay over this group on class, but the former will likely get a more aggressive steer, so he gets the nod, but I'll use both in the late Pick 4. (7) LUCYS MAN has found his best stride and he's worth a look for the exotics here at a price. (8) MYSTICAL MISSION can unleash a good closing kick most nights and he's another to use underneath in Tris and Supers.
Race 9
(6) TRACEUR HANOVER dropped and popped two starts back now he makes the same move here and he should be tough. (5) ISITFRIDAYYET gets away from razor-sharp Sintra and he should be right there vs. these. (8) MAROMA BEACH gets no favors from the draw, but his mile last week was only a tick slower than the top class and he can contend here at a price. (7) PHYSICALLY INCLINED was second to the choice two back and dropping here he is another that should threaten in a contentious dash.
Race 10
(4) EAST END is sharp and was just short in this class two starts back; slight nod. (5) DRUNKONAPLANE was a good 2nd to a shipper that came ready last week, and he rates highly vs. these. (6) HUMBOLDT couldn't repel that same shipper, but he can beat these if he gets an easier trip. (9) TE KAWAU N is always right there in this class and he could add some value to the late Pick 4. (3) A BOY NAMED SUUUZ goes back to Moreau here but I'm not sure he isn't a bit over his head here; small share predicted.