Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 2/1 Analysis

Meet Stats – 139 – 450 / $794.90 (-$107.80)
Best Bets – 17 – 44 / $55.50 (- $32.50)
Spot Plays – 9 – 44 / $69.80 (-$18.20)
Best Bet – EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN – (6TH)
Spot Play – BETTER MOONON OVER – (1ST)
Early Pick 5 – 1,6,8/1,2,6/2,3/2,5/1,2,4,9 = $28.80
Late Pick 5 – 9/2,7,8,10/1,6,7/3,6,10/1,4 = $14.40
Early Pick 4 – 2,5/1,2,4,9/9/2,7,8,10 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 1,6,7/3,6,10/1,4/4,6 = $36
Can Am Pick 4 – 1.4/1,3/1,2,4,8/3,5 = $32
Race 1 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 - **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**
(6) BETTER MOONON OVER qualified sharply for this, he lands in a good spot to make his seasonal debut and he picks up the hottest driver on the grounds; top call. (1) FREDDY BEAR drops again, and he may get a great following trip here. He would be no surprise in this spot. (8) MAJOR HILL showed some pep last week and he too drops again. He's in the mix here. (5) LYONS COPPERTOP should be able to make it into the Super ticket here exiting the Snowshoe series.
Race 2- NW 4 (F&M5) or $47,000 (F&M $60,000) LT
(1) ROYAL RHYTHM dropped more than 5 seconds in his most recent qualifier and he should be able to produce enough speed to be a top contender vs. this group; top call. (2) P C JUSTA DREAM is a gem of consistency now and he should be right there again. (6) WESTFIFTYSECOND fits well here and his sharp early speed could get him a great trip in this short field. (4) TALBOT EH PLUS was no match for a very strong winner last week but that was a good effort and he should be in the hunt for another share here.
Race 3 – 5YO and Younger NW5 or $75,000 LT
(3) MILITARY SECRET has been on fire since shipping north and his win streak should continue against this group. (2) LYONS PEGASUS was nailed right on the line by the tripped-out pocket-sitter last week. He should be the one to catch again. (7) LEGION SEELSTER is developing a strong closing kick and he should pass a few of these on route to a spot in the Tri or Super. (6) CHEDDAR BAY was cleverly driven by Harris last week to win, but this is a tougher chore and I see him finishing on the edges here.
Race 4 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,100 L10 - Pick 4
(5) RED RIVER JANE was given an easy trip in her first start back, but she finished with pace and she moves to a better post here. She gets the nod. (2) BLACK JACK PAT figures to wake up here dropping and starting from the inside; using. (1) DONTBRUISECARRIE is usually close when racing at this level; consider using underneath. (9) CHOOSE MY JET can pass a few of these late and she is worth considering for the Super at a price.
Race 5 – Horses who have raced for a purse less than $9,000 in one of last 3 starts
(9) NATIONAL DEBT is a win machine who showed no rust last time when winning at London despite having six weeks between starts. Post 9 should help his price here; top call. (1) SHADES OF BAY raced a bit better last week. When he puts it all together, he will pop for a win; maybe tonight? (2) CRUISE CAPTAIN is in a better spot here and he should wake up with a better try here. (4) LUCKSLST BLUEGRASS is worth a look on the barn change alone.
Race 6 – NW $16,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 - Late Pick 5
(9) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN never looked in danger last week when leading all the way and he is so sharp that the 9-hole likely won't stop him here. (3) DREAMFAIR B J gets away from the hot Fixed Idea here. He should be a threat. (5) AMERICAN VIRGIN gets a better post here which means he will likely be closer early. He can take a share vs. these. (8) P L JACKSON should blast for position again and he can stick around to take a slice.
Race 7 – NW $6,900 L5 or $14,500 L9 AE NW 1 in 2019-20 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(2) SORTIE looked like a winner at the 3/4 pole last week, but he was overtaken late by the pocket-sitter who made several moves that night. Perhaps the sloppy track wasn't to his liking; slight nod. (7) WHITE TIGER should be a threat on the class drop here; using. (8) FLY BEYOND also faces easier here buy he has gone a long time between wins; demand a price. (10) EIGHTOCLOCKSTORM was impressive winning last week and he should be in the mix here despite stepping back up in class.
Race 8 – NW $5,000 L5 or $10,000 L10
(7) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ gets a better post here after making a big move that he couldn't sustain last week. I'll give him the nod in a wide-open race. (1) PLAY JET RAY could trip out off an inside following trip and pounce late at a price; using. (6) PRINT MEDIA had a clear run up the inside last week, but a class-dropping rival rolling down the middle of the track rolled by. He is another possibility in a contentious race. (10) BEACH PRO is sharp, but I don't love the second tier post for him; using on the bottom.
Race 9 - NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10
(10) NICKLE BAG takes a big drop here and he should be tough vs. this group. (3) FANCOURT draws well in a race where he is a good fit. Macdonald should put him into play early. (6) REAL WILLEY should go better starting with his nose on the gate here; consider for multi-race tickets. (2) ISITFRIDAYYET is capable of better. Perhaps he needs a faster track.
Race 10 - NW $30,000 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000
With Sintra on the sidelines not qualifying for this class, (1) EASY LOVER HANOVER meets a field he should handle here; top call. (4) MATTICULOUS GB has eight wins and two 2nds in his past 10 starts and he has produced big speed in some of those wins. Aggressive driver Rocker Laidler should have him winging early. (7) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR will probably get put into this race early and that gives him a shot at landing a good share. (5) FIXED IDEA should be closing again here, and he can land in the Tri or Super.
Race 11 - NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(6) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER paced a big mile in defeat last week now he gets a better post to work from here where he should be able to work out a better trip. He gets the nod over (4) AMERICAN WIGGLE, who also gets post relief and could offer a price due to being unplaced in this class last week. (2) JULERICA is right there every week and if he gets into the flow this time, he could come out on top. (1) ALLSTAR SEELSTER passed them all last week and he should be in the mix again here, especially moving inside. (3) WHITE HAIR ROCKS can take a share off a following trip.