Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 1/5 Analysis
Best Bet: WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE (6th)
Spot Play: SIR GALAHAD (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,7,9/1,7/1,5/4,7,8/2 = $7.20
EARLY PICK: 4,7,8/2/3/ALL = $30
LATE PICK 4: 1,6,9/3,6,8/3,5/2,3,4 = $54
MEET STATS: 102 - 310 / $570.80 (-$49.20)
BEST BETS: 11 - 28 / $40.80 (-$15.20)
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 29 / $81.90 (+$23.90)
Race 1
(5) THRILLONTHEBEACH gets a better post to work from here and she can turn the tables on (9) ODDS ON STEPHANIE here as both exit the Niagara series final. (7) MS CHEESMAN can improve with two Canadian starts under her belt; using. (2) QUITE A SIGHT is fast and classy, and she adds Lasix coming off a break, but I prefer to use her underneath in this spot.
Race 2
(1) HEY LIVVY has been on fire, and she adds Lasix here shooting for her fifth straight win. She's the one to catch and beat. (7) QUADRANGLE changed trainers and exploded for a big maiden win in the slop. Off that impressive effort, I'll use him in this Pick 5. (8) SPARK A DREAM came up with his best effort yet last time and he can close for a slice here. (4) PENNANT SEELSTER is another who should be closing for a smaller share.
Race 3
(5) KENDALL SEELSTER can seemingly win racing from anywhere right now and Filion is a great fit for her. A threepeat looms. (1) DOUBLE A MINT provided cover for the choice last time and had a tough trip the race prior. She could turn the tables with the right trip. (6) EXHILARATED wins 25% of her starts yet somehow always pays a price when she wins. She will look to grab the pocket early which is from where she does the most damage. (9) MACHNHOPE is a genuine hard trier who could enhance the Tri or Super payoffs with a late charge here.
Race 4
(7) SHADES OF BAY had a tough trip behind stalled cover last time after starting 12th and he still produced a good late charge. I expect Henry to get aggressive early with him here. (8) CHAMPAGNE PHIL set big fractions and only tired late. He should be right there vs. these. (4) VELOCITY DRIVEN needs a setup, but he could get it here if the top two mix it up early; using. (3) FACE OF WAR is the type of horse Hudon sneaks onto the board at a big price; using underneath.
Race 5
(2) SIR GALAHAD goes for a different barn that has been deadly with new acquisitions and he adds Lasix. Toss in a 27-flat kicker from his December 20th qualifier and he should be all systems go. (9) ALEXAS JACKPOT tried hard vs. the great Foiled Again here last month and a similar effort puts him in the picture here. (1) SOME PLAYA can improve sharply dropping and moving inside; consider for exotics. (7) ASAP HANOVER is another class dropper to consider but he was hammered at the windows last time when dropping and he was done by the 3/4. I'll play to beat him this time.
Race 6
This looks like a great spot for (3) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE, who should be prominent throughout; top call. (1) THIS DRAGON ROCKS was thwarted by an extremely slow early pace last time, but she kept trying. She's an exacta factor again. (8) DONTBRUISECARRIE can produce a decent late kick at this level to land on the board. (7) ARTISTIC MADISON is known for performing at a high level in winter and she could better this placing despite stepping up sharply.
Race 7
(1) SHEZAREALDEAL can trip out from this post making her second start back from a break; slight nod. (9) BAROCKEY should wake up on the class drop here and she may blast and try to go right down the road in a race with few apparent leavers. (6) SLY ELEANOR N might get sent this time which makes her an upset possibility. (5) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is an honest closer who can come on late here to take a share.
Race 8
(8) AMERICAN VIRGIN had a start back now he should get sent for better position early in this contest. I'll give him the nod over the classy (6) SINTRA who comes off a break but will have to prove he is right again. (3) MACHAL JORDAN is in solid form and he could upset here with the right trip. (7) MONGOLIAN HERO N also drops from the top level and he's worth a look for at least a share in this spot.
Race 9
(3) ISITFRIDAYYET looked like he might win when he was tipped off cover on the final turn last time, but the leader enjoyed too easy of a trip and had enough left to hold his rivals at bay. I'll lean to him to knock (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER off his perch tonight but use both in this late Pick 4. (6) PHANTOM SEELSTER has been ultra-impressive here the past two months, but this is no easy spot for his four-year-old debut; small share predicted. (8) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP brings it every week, but from out there a slice is likely for him in this spot.
Race 10
(2) CLASSY DRAGON was kept in last time when coming off a six-month break which left him with no chance. With that tightener out of the way, he should get put into the race this time; top call. (3) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN is in peak form and he is the one to fend off late here. (4) LISVINNIE is always dangerous racing out of this barn and he could add some value to the late Pick 4. (5) DARKEST SECRET should be passing many of these in the final 1/4; use underneath. (9) LEAFS AND WINGS should also be passing horses late and he could sneak onto the Super or High-5 at a price.