Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 12/8 Analysis
Best Bet: KENDRAS COCO (6th)
Spot Play: OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 2,5,7,10/3,8/6/1,3,5,8/5,9 = $12.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,8/5,9/6/1,5,6 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 1,5,6/5,6/2,6/3,4,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 71 - 200 / $393.30 (-$6.70)
BEST BETS: 9 - 18 / $34.10 (-$1.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 19 / $39.10 (+$1.10)
Race 1
(7) MYSTERY BET was a popular winner in a similar class last time and this spot looks no tougher; call to repeat. (10) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is always capable racing at these levels and if he stays trotting, he could pop here at a square price. (5) SETANTA returns quickly following a solid win on Monday night and he is worth a look in this spot. (2) MISTER MUSCLE is capable of better and with the move inside, he should get an easier trip.
Race 2
This is a tough race with several class droppers in to go. I'll land on (8) AVALANCHE HANOVER, who shows a win a class higher a few starts back. He should get put into play early vs. these. (3) PISTON BROKE is another who should enjoy the class drop, but he's missed some time, too; mixed signals. (1) ROCK THIS WAY is frustrating for win bettors but a great earner for his owners. Another smaller share is likely here. (9) MAJOR HILL has the speed to be a factor at this level and he wouldn't be the worst flyer if he is let go at a big price.
Race 3
(6) OBVIOUS BLUE CHIP paced a strong race behind a long-gone winner in her first start back and she should be tough here. (7) AINT THREE OK was right behind the choice in a race where the final 1/4 paced by the winner left them no chance to close. She should be a threat. (5) MAKE MINE MOCHA can take a share here stepping up off a sharp win. (4) BETTIM JACKIE exits the same race as the choice and can close late for a smaller share.
Race 4
Tough race. I'll give a slight nod to (5) ROCKIN WIZARD who is better than he showed in the slop last week. (8) SHADES OF BAY has been better recently and if he gets sent early here, he could be tough. (1) THORN IN YOUR SIDE had no chance from the far outside at London, but he gets a big driver change here and he's in play. (3) VELOCITY DRIVEN steps back up off a sharp win and he is another that could do in a very contentious dash.
Race 5
(9) SHEZAREALDEAL had no shot last time in a race where the final 1/4 was paced in 27 1/5. With more action likely to occur earlier in this race, her big late kick could propel her to an upset win. (5) TWENTY THREE RED steps up off the claim but she's in great form and can challenge here. (10) LAY LADY LAY drops and she is another who could be there at a price. (3) SUDDEN PASSING's race two back would make her a contender here if she can repeat it.
Race 6
(6) KENDRAS COCO just wired non-winners of four company, so getting to face non-winners of three now because she is a mare is like a gift; Pick 4 single. (8) STORMONT CHARLOTTE also beat non-winners of four two starts back and she should be right there if she works out a reasonable trip. (7) DONATO LANE is hinting at a return to his best form; using underneath. (2) DRAFT YEAR can battle for a smaller share if he stays flat.
Race 7
(5) BILLS FELLA ships in with some good form and lands in a good spot; top call. (6) EAST END had a good comeback race and produced a nice kicker which should make him a contender here in his second start back. (1) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ gets a bit of an acid test here, but it's hard to fault his recent form and the way he has been winning racing from everywhere; using. (4) MACHAL JORDAN is reliable to get at least a slice in these classes; using underneath.
Race 8
(5) PRO BEACH was out of position but fired home quickly in his first race after shipping in. I expect a more aggressive try here. (6) TORRIN HANOVER was far more aggressive with the driver change to Filion and it paid off. He is dangerous right back. (4) JM JACK OF HEARTS is right there every week, with exacta finishes in 2/3 of this year's starts. He will be in the mix again here. (2) LEVIS DAY should be closer early this time which gives him a chance to share.
Race 9
(6) POINTOMYGRANSON keeps winning and keeps paying prices. Facing his toughest test yet vs. some Preferred types he should be a good price again, but he's been so impressive that I'll stick with him. (2) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT should get a better trip near the front here and he's dangerous. (4) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP should provide his typical rally for at least a share. (8) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is another who should be prominent at least early on the class drop, but he may also help set the table for the choice.
Race 10
(4) DEETZY exits some fast miles at smaller ovals and he looks good to strike right away in his return to this circuit. (3) CHAMPAGNE PHIL has been on a roll out of town and his sharpness shouldn't be ignored here. (5) AMERICAN WIGGLE is always dangerous at this level and he will likely go off chalk here. (1) COOL ROCK should be in a good spot to rally for a slice. (2) BIG BANG BOOM rarely misses the top five and from this post he should at least make it onto the High-5 ticket.