Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 12/22 Analysis
Best Bet: CLASSY DRAGON (9th)
Spot Play: THE REV (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,9/4,6,7/1,2,3,6/3,4/2,6,8 = $43.20
EARLY PICK: 3,4/2,6,8/4,8/7,8,10 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 7,8,10/2,8/1,7/1,4,5 = $36
MEET STATS: 90 - 270 / $499.90 (-$40.10)
BEST BETS: 10 - 24 / $37.40 (-$10.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 26 / $64.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
(3) SAND ARTIST lands in a good post again and she should get a good stalking position early then pounce late; call to repeat. (1) MS CHEESMAN is capable vs. these and getting McNair won't hurt; using. (9) WINDSONG OLYMPIA has been on a roll since getting claimed by trainer Fine and her excellent early speed helps from this post. I'll toss her on my Pick 5 ticket. (6) SHADOW SPARKS is right there every week and she should be able to land another share here.
Race 2
(4) RACEMUP has been dead game in both of his wins since shipping in from London and I'm sticking with him here despite the jump in class. (7) FASHIONONTHEBEACH has also been solid and he's due for a better trip; using. (6) MY TEEN IDOL steps out of claimers, but his last effort was good and he's not out of this. (5) INTRIGUED AGAIN is capable of better and he's bound to wake up one of these weeks.
Race 3
This race looks wide-open, so I'm going price shopping with (1) ART ANGEL BABY who is viable and should be a good price stepping up off a loss. (3) BLACK JACK PAT also steps up, but she was very sharp last week and is capable vs. these. (6) SHEZAREALDEAL should be flying late vs. these so I'm using her in the Pick 5. (2) JUST HER LUCK can go much better with the move inside and she is another who should bring a square price.
Race 4
(4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED and (3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN both drop out of the top class and stick out here; take your pick. I'll side with the former who will likely get sent hard this time. (1) AMERICAN WIGGLE also drops but he seems slightly below the two choices presently; using underneath. (6) MACHAL JORDAN is as game as they come, and he can grab another slice here.
Race 5
(8) DEETZY has been roiling well late, but off poor cover. He can upset these with a bit better trip. (6) ASAP HANOVER is logical taking a multi-level class drop and he will probably get sent here. (2) DREAMY FELLA is dangerous here starting from the inside and his driver/trainer - who won with a 38/1shot a couple of weeks ago - should provide an overlay. (1) SHADOW MOON tripped out and almost won at huge odds. He can sit a good trip here and make the ticket.
Race 6
The great (4) FOILED AGAIN gets leading driver Roy for his final race in Canada and he should get sent right down the road vs. these; top call. (8) ALEXAS JACKPOT drops again and he could be the main danger. (5) VALIDUS DEO has improving form and he should close for another slice here. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER returns from a forced break and he may have designs on the front early which could hurt the choice.
Race 7
(8) THE REV was game last week, and it looked like he couldn't get a wheel through nearing the wire which prevented him from stealing the win. I'll give him the nod here. (7) OFFICER JONES raced better in his second start over the track and he has upset possibilities here; using. (10) TE KAWAU N is dangerous at this level and he may be a rare #10 horse that overcomes this post to win. (1) LISVINNIE goes back to the stable where he did the most damage this year, but I'll wait for him to drop back into claimers.
Race 8
(8) EASY LOVER HANOVER is the king of Mohawk Park in the winter and there's no reason to think his win streak will be stopped here unless (2) AMERICAN VIRGIN - another noted exceptional performer in the winter - is ready off the shelf. I'll use both in the late Pick 4. (3) POINTTOMYGRANSON shot up the ladder quickly and he's still racing great; using underneath. (9) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP likely gets only a small share here starting from out there.
Race 9
(1) CLASSY DRAGON is too classy for these if he's ready to rock and his December 13th qualifier suggests that he's ready; top call. (7) VELOCITY DRIVEN should be the main threat dropping down; using. (9) RAMBLINGAMBLINMAN looked great rolling by lesser in the lane last week, but this is a much tougher shore; small share predicted. (4) ABOUT A BOY is a great one to use underneath to round out Tris and Supers.
Race 10
This is a very evenly-matched group for this mandatory payout High-5 bet and it really could pay anything. That said, I like (4) BILLS FELLA best and the sharp gelding will be the key to my tickets. (1) CHAMPAGNE PHIL drops and gets an inside post and he should be prominent. (5) HEZA THRILL N is usually tough in this class and he gets a good post here, so he should be right there. (3) IDEAL JET should sit a good trip near the front and stick around for a slice. (8) EAST END retuned from a summer break in sharp form. He's not out of this.