Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 12/15 Analysis
Best Bet: LUCKSLST BLUEGRASS (1st)
Spot Play: EAST END (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 7/1,3,6/1,6,8/3,4/2,4,7 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,4/2,4,7/1,3,4,6/5,8 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 5,8/5,8/2,6,7/1,5 = $24
MEET STATS: 78 - 230 / $436.20 (-$23.80)
BEST BETS: 9 - 20 / $34.10 (-$5.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 22 / $43.60 (-$0.40)
Race 1
(7) LUCKLST BLUEGRASS faces considerably easier here and Drury should be sending him right down the road vs. this group. (2) SUPERFICIAL should go better here moving inside for his second start over the track; exacta factor. (5) VALIDUS DEO won in a similar class at Flamboro five starts back, but if the choice brings his 'A' game, he is likely fighting for a smaller share. (4) UNDRAFTED usually lands on the edges in this class and he can round out the Tri or Super.
Race 2
(3) THIS DRAGON ROCKS took a lot of heat on the front end last week and understandably tired late. She projects to get an easier trip here and she can bounce back. (1) XELENE BAYAMA's tactic to drop back early paid off handsomely, but she is sharp and dangerous right back. (6) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP has the class and speed to contend with these if she is ready to produce a top effort off the shelf, so I'll use her in this Pick 5. (8) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY is in solid form and she can close from the back and get herself onto the Super ticket here.
Race 3
(6) WINNING LYRIC steps up here, but he comes off a dominating win and he's beaten better than these in the past. I'll stick with him. (8) ZEUS LIGHTNING continues to race tough every week and he's due for some racing luck; using. (1) PARKHILL NONSTOP is quirky, but at this level he can win if he sits a trip close to the front. (5) TOUCHDOWN AS is the busiest horse on the grounds, but he tries hard every week and he can share vs. these.
Race 4
(5) BILLS FELLA was game in defeat and he should improve in his second start over the track; top call. (4) SHADES OF BAY has a mind of his own at times, but at this level he must be considered, especially from an inner post. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT takes a big drop and should wake up with a better effort, but I'll use him underneath at this point. (7) YACHT SEELSTER can repeat his strong effort from last week and take a slice here.
Race 5
(2) EAST END was dead game beating similar last week and I'll stick with him here. (4) MACHAL JORDAN is in solid form and he can be closer at the finish here if he gets a better start; using. (7) OUTLAW TURN N BURN was motoring late for a barn that has everything sharp. He could add some value to the Pick 4 and Pick 5. (6) ROCK THIS WAY broke through last time, but he isn't known for stringing wins together; using underneath.
Race 6
(4) ON THE MINUTE MARK was a strong winner at this level two starts back with McNair driving and he returns here. There's a good chance that recent history will repeat. (3) HOT SPOT HANOVER drops, moves inside and gets Roy which all add up to me using her in this Pick 4. (1) BIG CHUTE is due for some better luck and she may trip out here starting from the pole. (6) JAN seems sharp enough and she's beaten better this year. Tab the tote for clues here.
Race 7
(8) ISITFRIDAYYET has hit a new level with his sub-27 kickers and he may be at this top class for a while; call to repeat. (5) EASY LOVER HANOVER loves winter here, and he is hard to leave out shooting for four straight. (7) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP pummeled easier, but he certainly isn't outclassed here, and he can take a share. (4) POINTOMYGRANSON has been racing great for weeks and even in this class he wouldn't surprise me if he shared.
Race 8
There's so many quick leavers signed on here that this looks like a race that's right in (8) COOL ROCK's wheelhouse. I see him passing them all down the lane. (5) BIG BANG BOOM drops and could trip out in the pocket, so I'll use him too in this Pick 4. (7) FINE DIAMOND wins about one in every 17 starts, but he's a great horse to use underneath most of the time. (10) DREAMY FELLA will likely be last early, but he should be passing some winded rivals late.
Race 9
(6) DEETZY raced tough chasing fast splits in his first start back at Mohawk and he gets a slight nod here over a streaking (2) TORRIN HANOVER, who is clearly at the top of his game right now. (7) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT drops and will get bet, but I'll play to beat him in this spot. (1) HUMBOLDT should improve sharply moving inside and he's not out of this.
Race 10
(1) MAJOR HILL drops again, gets the inside and has no excuses vs. this field. (5) THE REV is obviously good enough if he's ready to roll. His 27 1/5 kicker in the November 29th qualifier intrigues; using. (4) TYMAL PEACEMAKER should be able to sit a trip and grab a share vs. these. (2) SILVERADO is in solid form and he should be close to the front throughout; using on the bottom. (7) AVALANCHE HANOVER could do better here if he finds a helmet to follow this time.