Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 12/14 Analysis

Meet Stats – 78 – 246 / $440.20 (-$51.80)
Best Bets – 11 – 24 / $36.50 (- $11.50)
Spot Plays – 3 – 24 / $29.20 (-$18.80)
Best Bet - ROYAL RENEGADE (10TH)
Spot Play - PLAYA DUHARAS (3RD)
Pick 5 - 1,3,6/1,3,4/1,3,6/1,4,6/1,8 = $32.40
Early Pick 4 - 1,4,6/1,8/5,6,8/2,3 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 2,3/1,2,3,5/1,4,6/2 = $24
Race 1 - F&M NW $16,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $110,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $35,000 - **GTD $50K Pick 5**
(6) INVERSE HANOVER got a great trip last week, but she did dig deep late to get up now she gets a notable driver change to Roy. This mare was bought for a big sum privately in the fall and more is likely expected; top call. (1) LYONS HEDGEABET has a much better chance here starting from the inside; using. (3) PARISIAN BLUE CHIP is a bit sneaky in here in that she didn't have great trips in either of her last two starts. I'll toss her in the Pick 5. (5) ROLL WITH SPARKY has good form but she is an infrequent winner. I'll use her underneath.
Race 2 - NW $5,800 L5 or $10,000 L10
(4) SOSSYS KING KONG was driven with a purpose leaving last week but too many others had the same idea and the early pace was too fast for him to be able to clear to the front from his outer post. He could pop here at a price. (3) BIT OF LUCK was live, but the late pace was just too fast as he was making a wide move. He's a contender here. (1) BRODYS SCRAPPER dominated weaker but he draws well here and he's not out of this despite the class rise. (2) DRAGON STRIKER can get a piece of this off an expected following trip.
Race 3 - F&M 4YO and Younger NW2 or $33,000 LT
(6) PLAYA DUHARAS was first up racing into swift fractions last week and she understandably tired. She can rebound here. (3) LYONS TILT HANOVER raced aggressively to beat easier but that was a decent effort and she should be in the mix again. (1) SHEBESAILIN is always a threat with her good speed and Roy has some options here starting from the rail; using. (4) SMILE SALLY finished ahead of the choice after making a nice late move; consider for the exotics.
Race 4 - NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $80,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000 - **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(1) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER won at this level two starts back and he draws well here so he should be tough. (4) MONGOLIAN HERO N also drops, and he is usually in the hunt racing in this class. (6) P L JACKSON is yet another who has shown this class level is good for him and he draws one of the best posts. He is the third one that I'll use in multi-race tickets here. (9) TRACEUR HANOVER fits here, but from this post he is likely to be coming late for a small share.
Race 5 - 5YO and Younger NW3 or $63,000 LT
(1) PRESTIGE SEELSTER beat similar last week and he should get another aggressive steer here; top call. (8) BETTOR BE GOING has learned how to ration his speed and that makes him dangerous here despite his post; using. (2) THE FIRST STEP was beaten by the choice at odds-on and he raced erratically in spots. I'll use him underneath only. (6) THRILLING TIMES should leave for good position and ride that to a high placing.
Race 6 - NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L9 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(6) ST JAMES GATE was flying late vs. better now he drops. Expect a more aggressive try. (8) PARKHILL NONSTOP was mired in traffic for most of his last start and he did have some energy late. He could upset at a big price here moving up one level. (5) WIKI HANOVER raced well vs. a big chalk last time and she should be in the mix here for a share. (2) WHAT A RUSH will be closing late as usual; use underneath.
Race 7 - NW $16,000 L5 or $27,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000 - Pick 4
(2) NICKLE BAG was dead game, but the winner was unyielding last week in a fast race for the class. He could boss this group. (3) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP is sharp, and he is most likely the main danger. (1) BETTOR OPS N was used up early last time. He can get a better trip here; consider for the exotics. (4) LISBURN is in solid form and he should race near the front and land in the Super.
Race 8 - NW $30,500 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000
(1) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was lights-out last week and he gets the call to repeat drawing the inside. (5) ELLIS PARK was motoring late last week. He could get put into action earlier this time; using. (3) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is always dangerous with his potent early speed and he should get put into play leaving the gate here. (2) EAST END should sit a good trip near the front, and he is another in with a chance in this contentious dash.
Race 9 - HORSES THAT HAVE RACED FOR A PURSE LESS THAN $9,000 L3
(4) THE REGULATOR is very sharp right now and he has won here before; top call. (6) PAPARAZZI HANOVER comes off a nice win at Flamboro and another big speed try could be coming here. (1) IMSPORTY could get a better trip here following one of the top two choices. I'll throw him in this Pick 4. (7) MR MACH JIMMY will likely be closing for a smaller share in this spot.
Race 10 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,800 L10
(2) ROYAL RENEGADE drops, moves inside, and likely pops in this spot. (1) WALTER MITTY was good last week, but the leader was long gone. He should be the main threat. (8) ISITFRIDAYYET fits well here but from this post he may not be close enough early; small share predicted. (4) CINNABAR DRAGON should be blasting early, and he can follow to make it onto the ticket. (6) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ returned ready, but this is a much tougher spot. He is likely a fringe player in this spot.