Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 12/1 Analysis
Best Bet: LEGAL POWER (2nd)
Spot Play: ROCKIN WIZARD (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 7/3/3,5,7,8/2,3,4/5,6 = $$4.80
EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,4/5,6/1,6/3,5,10 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,5,10/1,2,8/1,9/2,6,9 = $54
MEET STATS: 55 - 160 / $307.90 (-$12.10)
BEST BETS: 7 - 14 / $27.70 (-$0.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 16 / $39.10 (+$7.10)
Race 1
(7) HEY LIVVY is on a roll now and perhaps only an issue with gait may stop her now. (4) GALLANT MAN flew home to win in New Jersey and he ships in and goes for a hot barn here; he hasn't raced in 28 days though and he may not be sharp enough to take down the streaking choice. (8) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE continues to race well, and she gets McClure back here. She can share. (10) PENNANT SEELSTER has the speed to leave for position from out there and he could crash the exotics at a price.
Race 2
(3) LEGAL POWER paced out of his skin in the snow last time. If he repeats anything close to that mile here, the rest will be battling for 2nd. (1) JM JACK OF HEARTS is consistently right there, and he may even leave a bit better from this post; exacta factor. (6) STATEMENT MADE A improved when he dropped to this class and he's not out of this, but he may have his hands full with the choice if he couldn't repel Gerardo. (2) REAL SURREAL is expected to improve here, but this isn't an easy spot; using underneath.
Race 3
(5) BERNADETTE had no shot against the class-plunging Sandbetweenurtoes last week, but she was going well before that and she fits well here; top call. (8) BUTTERMILK HANOVER is always right there at this level and she could win this with a bit of racing luck. (3) AMERICAN SARA is another who seems like a good fit in this field that I'll use in the Pick 5. (7) ACTION MAJESTY is worth a look getting McNair back here.
Race 4
(3) ROCKIN WIZARD showed some grit racing in the snow and stepping up to face some class droppers should ensure a good price on him here; slight nod. (2) TRACEUR HANOVER tales a multi-level class drop here, and he is obvious on paper but will likely get overbet. (4) IDEAL JET may set sail on a speed mission on the class drop and if it's a night where the front end is good, that would make him extra dangerous. (1) MACHAL JORDAN is classy and consistent and he should take at least a share here.
Race 5
(7) TWENTY THREE RED may benefit from moving outside here in that she might be able to find live cover this time and if she does, she should be tough. (6) ART ANGEL BABY steps up but her last effort was very good, and she could pop at a price here. (9) GOTTALOVEMYSHADOW has a good closing kick and she could crash the exotics again vs. this group. (4) NAUGHTY LADY B is worth a look on the barn change alone.
Race 6
(6) MYSTERY BET is in a spot where he should get a nice setup for his potent late kick; top call. (1) ZEUS LIGHTNING has been good all year and starting from the inside puts him square in the picture vs. these. (7) MUSICAL SPELL took a new season's mark last week and he merits a look despite stepping up a notch. (2) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY should be rallying past a few of these late; using underneath.
Race 7
(5) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE goes for trainer Auciello here who excels with new acquisitions. There's a good chance he gets sent right down the road by Drury. (10) JINS SHARK gets McNair here which could mean he is blasting off the gate for position; using in the Pick 4's. (3) HIS BOY ELROY took plenty of action last week, but the winner was taking a big class drop and was too sharp. He can share again. (4) ROCK THIS WAY is a great one to use in the 2, 3 and 4 slots in exotic bets.
Race 8
(2) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT fell just short when the winner slipped up the inside in deep stretch. That rival is gone, and this gelding gets the nod here. (1) PHYSICALLY INCLINED will likely try to control it starting from the inside, and he's dangerous. (8) ISITFRIDAYYET took a passive approach last week first time racing this high while in a snowstorm. He could add fuel to the early pace here. (3) NIRVANA SEELSTER may get early opposition for the front here which would likely make him a bit player.
Race 9
(1) CROFT BAY N is usually in the mix racing at this level and he's due for some luck; slight nod. (9) HEZA THRILL N had a good local debut race and he can improve here. Post adds to the price; using. (4) SENIOR MARKET is a veteran that's in great form shipping in from Flamboro. He can take a share racing close up here. (10) OSBORNE SEELSTER may clear early, but it's hard to see him hanging on for more than a minor share.
Race 10
(6) POINTTOMYGRANSON has been impressive in both recent wins and stepping up to meet some class droppers should ensure another square price. I'll ride with him while he's hot. (2) SHAMBALLA is only 2 for his last 20 in the win column and while he looks good here, he's no lock. (9) HUMBOLDT drops to a logical spot which means he should get sent hard off the gate; using. (1) BRAVE WORLD also figures dropping from the top class, but he could be overbet in this spot. (8) BIG BANG BOOM is another dropper that adds to the puzzle in an interesting end to the late Pick 4.