Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/9 Analysis

Meet Stats – 21 - 54 / $96.00 (-$8.00)
Best Bets – 2 – 5 / $6.00 (-$4.00)
Spot Plays – 2- 5 / $6.30 (-3.70)
Best Bet – ANGERS BAYAMA – (2ND)
Spot Play – ROYAL RENEGADE – (8TH)
Pick 5 – 2,3,5/2/1,4,5/2,5,8/3,7,10 = $16.20
Early Pick 4 – 2,5,8/3,7,10/3,7,9/5,7 = $54
Late Pick 4 – 5,7/1,6/1,2,3/1,5,10 = $36
Race 1 – NW $16,100 L5 or $33,000 L10 or $120,000 AE:OPT CLM $45,000 - **$50,000 GTD Pick 5**
(3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN produced a super first-over effort to win last time after missing three weeks and he gets the call to repeat here. (5) HERVEY HANOVER is a sharp sophomore who should contend vs. his elders here; using. (2) TORRIN HANOVER pushed the tough Physicallyinclined to the limit last week. He is another who can take this contentious opener. (4) B STONEY should pass a couple of these late to take a share.
Race 2 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG – ONTARIO SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(2) ANGERS BAYAMA continues to roll and he shouldn’t get beat here, but he won’t go off higher than 1 to 5 in this spot. (5) EXCALIBER SEELSTER seems most likely to be racing in the choice’s pocket which gives him a good chance to complete this Exacta. (3) CHEDDAR BAY should also be racing close to the front in a race where closers aren’t likely to be making up much ground late. (6) STRATEGIC THINKING should pass a couple of these late; using on the bottom.
Race 3 – HARVEST SERIES – 2ND LEG – ONTARIO SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(4) PRESTIGE SEELSTER was 2nd to the colt who must be favored to win this series and he can prove best here with that rival in race 2 here. (5) THE FIRST STEP rode a good trip to a win last week, but he is sharp, and he should contend for the win here again. (1) MACHDAVID improved as expected last week but he got picked off late. He can win this with the right trip. (2) THRILLING TIMES was overbet last week off a troubled trip the week before. I’ll use him underneath in this spot.
Race 4 –5YO and Younger NW3 or $65,000 LT **$50,000 GTD Pick 4**
(5) NO TIME AT ALL goes for Auciello off the claim moving up from a conditioned claimer which should help his price; slight nod. (2) WINDSUN RICKY was impressive in victory last week and he should be a formidable rival right back. (8) LEGION SEELSTER has faced some very tough ones in his past two starts. He merits a long look for multi-race tickets here. (1) TIME TO DANCE should sit a good trip just behind the leaders and he can sneak into the exotics at a price.
Race 5 – NW $5,400 L5 OR $10,000 L10
(7) IDEAL JET got used up in an early pace battle on the Friday of Breeders Crown night. Many of the drivers that engaged in that dueling are gone and he could have his way with these on the front end with the drop in class. (3) P L JACKSON drops, and he finished ahead of the choice in the October 25th race; using. (10) BILLS FELLA is the most likely upsetter if the leaders are coming back to the field late. I’ll use him as a price option on multi-race tickets. (8) BIG BANG BOOM brings improving form in from Flamboro Downs and he could add some value to the Tri or Super here.
Race 6 – NW $10,700 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE; OPT CLM $30,000 – 1 3/8 Miles
(9) BIZET is not only the only horse in this race to have won at the extended distance, he’s the only one that has raced in one of these 1 3/8 miles races. On that angle, he gets my nod. (3) KNIGHT ANGEL continues to race well and the way he finishes his miles makes me think he will like this added distance race; using. (7) BUZZ will likely clear to the front leaving the gate and he could go a long way here; using. (5) UNDERCOVER STRIKE can pass some of these late and take a slice.
Race 7 – PREFERRED – Pick 4
(7) EASY LOVER HANOVER is back in a logical spot coming out of the Breeders Crown. He gets top call here. (5) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL wasn’t far back of the best aged pacing mares on the continent in her Breeders Crown race and with no Mares Preferred carded this week she takes on the boys in a spot where she doesn’t look out of place; using. (2) NIRVANA SEELSTER should be there early and hang around for a share late. (6) ELLIS PARK is in top form right now, but this is a tougher spot; using on the bottom.
Race 8 – NW $16,100 L5 or NW $33,000 L10 or NW 7 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(1) ROYAL RENEGADE is as sharp as a tack and he gets to take a class dip here. He should get put into this race earlier and he should be tough. (6) POINTOMYGRANSON is also very sharp and he should be a decent price here. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (7) MONGOLIAN HERO N can pass some of these in the final 1/4 and take a decent share. (5) SANDBETWEENURTOES is another Preferred mare out of the Moreau barn racing vs. males here and she should be in the mix for a slice.
Race 9 – NW $12,700 L5 or $22,000 L10 or NW $70,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(3) AMERICAN VIRGIN gets a driver switch to Roy here which could mean a speed blast is coming in this short field; top call. (2) PEDRO HANOVER drops, and he fits well here, but he has been a bit win-shy lately; using. (1) HP NAPOLEON looked good two starts back circling the field late. He has upset possibilities here. (4) BETTOR OPS N drifted last week which cost him a win. He figures to be in the exotics mix here.
Race 10 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10
This is a tough race with a few possibilities. I’ll side with (10) REGAL SON who raced well coming off a break last week and could get a nice trip here starting as a trailer. (1) PRO BEACH faced tougher recently and he is in with a good shit here. (5) NICKLE BAG takes a multi-level class drop and he rates highly but he isn’t one I can take short price on considering his grinding style. (4) WALTER MITTY comes off a nice win and he should be heard from here, but I’ll use him underneath facing class droppers. (3) MAJOR HILL can get a good trip racing near the front here and slip into the Super or High-5 late.