Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 1/18 Analysis

Meet Stats – 112 – 365 / $626.80 (-$103.20)
Best Bets – 15 – 36 / $49.70 (- $22.30)
Spot Plays – 6 – 36 / $42.90 (-$29.10)
Best Bet – DOUBLE A MINT – (2ND)
Spot Play – JAY EYE EM – (4TH)
Early Pick 5 – 1,3,6/1/3,4,9/5,6/2,3,5,6,9 = $18
Late Pick 5 - 6,8,9/6/1,7,8/7/1,5,6 = $5.40
Early Pick 4 – 5,6/2,3,5,6,9/6,8,9/6 = $30
Late Pick 4 – 1,7,8/7/1,5,6/1,2,6,7 = $36
Can Am Pick 4 - 1,5,6/2,4/1,2,6,7/3,6 = $48
Race 1 – NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE:OPT CLM $20,000 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 5**
Tough race to kick off the early Pick 5. I’ll give the nod to (6) BAUTISTA, who should be prominent early leaving from one of the best posts and may control things on the front all the way. (3) UNDERCOVER STRIKE brings solid form with him from Rideau and he should be in with a decent shot here. (1) ZEUS LIGHTNING fits well at this $20K optional claiming level and he is the third one that I will use in leg 1 of the Pick 5. (7) WHAT A RUSH has been taking lots of action at the windows but coming up short with his rallies. I’ll use him on the bottom here.
Race 2 - F&M NW $25,000 L5 or NW $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(1) DOUBLE A MINT was bottled up until late last time and she was absolutely flying at the wire. She seems to lay over this group and she should convert as a big chalk. (5) COUSIN MARY is likely to show speed in this spot and she can round out the Exacta. (2) BETTER BE DONNA N was in the outer flow last week and she retreated late. She can sit a trip and take a share here. (3) SYLPH HANOVER is capable of better. She may have disliked the slop last time.
Race 3 – NW 5 (F&M7) or $75,000 (F&M $87,500) LT
(9) PIKACHU HANOVER had a rough trip last week then he was set back for causing interference nearing the wire. He can make amends here if he gets a better start, (3) JUMPSHOT is the one that suffered that interference when he was coming on late and he deserves a look with his improving form. (4) LEFKADA is in great form and she isn’t out of this; using at a price. (6) JOHNNYS REVENGE has a nice in-the-money streak going and he is almost sure to be part of the Tri or Super here.
Race 4 – HORSES WHO HAVE RACED FOR A PURSE OF $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE START OF LAST 3 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**
(6) JAY EYE EM looked a certain winner last week when he ran into one of the two horses he was about to pass on his way to victory. I’ll stick with him here. (5) MCKINNEY draws some interest going for the Fellows barn here and he fits this class well; using. (7) AMERICAN WIGGLE should go better in this spot and he can add some value to the exotics. (4) CASIMIR OOPS is another worth a look for the bottom of the Tri and Super in a race where he figures to improve.
Race 5 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: NW $60.000 LT
Nothing went right for (3) FANCOURT last week when he dropped to this level and closed as the chalk. From a better post, he can convert here. (2) FREDDY BEAR is going to explode in the stretch one of these weeks; maybe tonight? (6) CHEDDAR BAY hasn’t raced since winning the Valedictory final, but he is capable at this level if ready. (9) REAL WILLEY didn’t get the best trip last week, but he steps up here and moves outside. If you decide to stick with him, price will be there.
Race 6 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(8) MANDY KRIDEN A faces what looks like her easiest field since shipping over from Down Under and if she has her gait issues solved, she can beat these. (9) TURBO DIVA raced well to be 2nd to a class-dropping chalk last week and if she is sent forward again at the start, she can be dangerous. (6) OUR VACATION is obvious on paper – taking a big class drop – but she has missed five weeks. What price will you take? (1) PICKLES ON TOP is likely to improve in this spot and she may sneak into the Tri or Super at a price.
Race 7 – NW $22,000 L5 or $38,500 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000
(6) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN gets away from razor-sharp Sintra here and he should take beating in this spot. (1) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR shows a sub-1:50 mile on the only fast track he has raced on here. Upgrade his chances if the track comes up fast. (3) ELLIS PARK and (4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED can’t be counted out at this level but in this spot, I prefer to use them underneath.
Race 8 – NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(7) MACHIN A TRICK drops back down and gets Roy to drive. I’ll give him a slight nod in a head-scratcher. (8) WEATHERLY made a big move that he couldn’t sustain but he can be right there vs. these if he works out a better trip. (1) DREAMFAIR CHARRO raced okay in the slop vs. similar and if he trips out, he can win this. (5) OLLIESTRIKESFAME is a good one to use on the bottom of the Tri and Super.
Race 9 – PREFERRED HANDICAP
(7) SINTRA didn’t get the best trip last week and he still prevailed. He is too good for these right now. (5) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL was out of touch with the field until very late but once she started her move, she was flying. She should be an Exacta factor here. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER is always a front end threat and that shouldn’t change here. (2) EASY LOVER HANOVER took a week off which may help, but I’ll play to beat him out of the Tri here.
Race 10 – NW $16,000 L5 or $27,500 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE:OPT CLM $$45,000
(1) FIXED IDEA couldn’t fight off a sharp rival last week but that was another good effort and he is likely to revert to his closing style here. Watch for him late. (5) CHEAPSKATE HANOVER couldn’t be any sharper and he may handle this class rise; using. (6) DREAMFAIR B J was going great before he broke stride last week; another possibility in a contentious race. (4) P L JACKSON should show speed again and hang around for a slice.
Race 11 – NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(2) JULERICA continues to roll and while these are tougher, he may be up to it; slight nod. (6) ROYAL RENEGADE was a bit one-paced racing in the slop last time chasing a long-gone winner. He fits well here, and he should be charging late. (1) CLASSIC PRO should get another nice following trip here and he could escape late and reach up for a score. (7) LISBURN will be racing near the lead and he isn't without a chance here in a contentious field. (10) DEETZY has a good one to follow off the gate starting in front of him and he should be in this High-5.