Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/3 Analysis
Best Bet: PHYSICALLYINCLINED (3rd)
Spot Play: AINT THREE OK (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,7,8/1,2,4/3/3,5,9/3,6 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 3,5,9/3,6/6,9/2,5,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 2,5,7/3,5,8/1,8/2,4,9 = $54
FINAL CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 423 - 1293 / $2,354.30
BEST BETS: 70 - 116 / $246.60
SPOT PLAYS: 37 - 115 / $227.40
Race 1
This looks like the kind of race where (3) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE wakes up with no notice and chases down some faltering speed late; upset special. (4) LEAVING A LEGACY was a winner in this class two starts back and seems an obvious contender dropping back down; using. (9) MANHATTAN PLAY was just short a class higher, but she's 0 for 22 this year and gets the worst post; your call. (7) I C ANASTRO steps up off a sharp win and she shouldn't be discounted in this field.
Race 2
(2) QUINTS DREAM was loaded last time and when she found needed room late there was no doubt she was going by; call to repeat. (1) TAKEYOURBREATHAWAY continues to race tough every week and she should work out another good trip here. (4) MACHNHOPE can race much better here from a better post and Drury should be sending; beware. (5) BIG THONG should take a slice here racing from close range.
Race 3
(3) PHYSICALLYINCLINED is the hottest horse on the grounds and one that I'm not willing to take a stand against the way he has raced the past month; Pick 5 single. (6) EASY LOVER HANOVER left, yielded then came again late to be second to the choice. He should contend again leaving from a good post. (8) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP is sharp and game, but from out there I see him closing for a small share. (2) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT steps back up off a sharp win; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(5) CROFT BAY N faces easier here and the Hensley barn continues to run hot; top call. (3) STATEMENT MADE A had a long trip vs. better last time and he fits here. A better trip sees him right there. (9) HIDDEN DELIGHT raced tough in this class two starts back; don't discount. (6) LUCKLST BLUEGRASS was dominant vs. much weaker but this is a taller task and a smaller share is predicted for him.
Race 5
(3) AINT THREE OK was hopelessly buried for the entire stretch drive last week with plenty of pace to offer. Moving inside, she should get a more aggressive steer this time; top call. (6) DAZZLING ROCKETTE is sharp and dangerous going for a hot barn; using. (7) AMERICAN SARA raced better in this class but she seems like a fringe player here. (5) ROLL WITH SPARKY can sneak onto the ticket with the class drop.
Race 6
(6) AMOREUSE HANOVER's only good results in her past five starts have come with McNair driving and he returns here; slight nod. (9) MUSICAL RHYTHM hasn't looked great in his comeback, but he makes his fifth start back and drops again, so a wakeup here wouldn't be a shock. (3) ZEUS LIGHTNING steps up off a win and he's having a great season at 11 years old. He's not out of this. (7) PARKHILL NONSTOP is a great check earner who is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 7
(7) ISITFRIDAYYET makes his third start back and his 1:52 mile with a 28-flat kicker should play well here in this much lower class. Last winter, he was the hottest horse on the grounds for a few weeks. (2) IMSPORTY has been racing well in Flamboro's top class and he could get a great trip here; using. (5) ROSE RUN QUEST beat a rival that returned three days later to jog. I'll use him in the Pick 4s. (6) HES A SENSATION should be closing for a slice here.
Race 8
(3) BEYOND DELIGHT has been finishing just behind the leaders a class higher and this class drop may be just what he needs; slight nod. (8) IDEAL JET couldn't hold off the classy Shamballa, but he should take these a long way and he is hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets. (5) MOONWRITER was right there last time he raced here in this class. He's another in with a decent shot that I'll add to my Pick 4 bet. (1) ROCK THIS WAY will likely be closing for a smaller share again here.
Race 9
(8) BRAVE WORLD jumps up in class, but he faced some tough ones at Yonkers and wasn't disgraced; call to repeat, hopefully at a price. (1) MONGOLIAN HERO N is on a roll and his strong tactical speed makes him dangerous every week. (3) MAJOR HILL needs a trip, but if he lands in the pocket early, he can win this. (2) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN steps up slightly, but he is another who could win this competitive dash with the right trip.
Race 10
This looks like the toughest race of the night. With at least a couple of horses expected to leave hard from the outside, I'll concentrate on closers to get the spoils. (4) INTRIGUED AGAIN looks ready coming off the shelf and he's the best closer in here. (9) PROLOGUE had a good kick last time and he interests me at a price. (2) SCOUTS REPORT drops two levels and he should also be coming late. (10) ROCKY SQUIRREL goes back to Moreau, but he may get cooked early trying to make front. (1) MACHLICIOUS cans sit a trip and come on late for a slice.