Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/24 Analysis

Best Bet: SANDSBETWEENURTOES (1st)

Spot Play: DREAMY FELLA (10th)

Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 5/2,5,6/3,4,6,8/3,6,9/1,3,4 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,6,9/1,3,4/2/2,3,5,6 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,5,6/3,4,6/4/1,3,5,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 39 - 120 / $222.10 (-$17.90)

BEST BETS: 4 - 10 / $19.20 (-$0.80)

SPOT PLAYS: 3 - 12 / $21.80 (-$2.20)

Race 1

This race looks like a layup for (5) SANDSBETWEENURTOES racing this low. She looks like a Pick 5 single to me. (2) MACHNHOPE raced super last week as she continues to improve; exacta factor. (6) LAY LADY LAY raced tough in defeat and she should get a good piece here, too. (7) BERNADETTE is starting to look like her old self, but a small share is probably her ceiling.

Race 2

Tough race with a small field. (2) MAKE MINE MOCHA moves inside, drops slightly and returns quicker; slight nod. (5) BUTTERMILK HANOVER also drops and she’s typically right there when racing at this level; using. (6) ARTISTIC MADISON usually excels in winter weather. Don’t be surprised if she wakes up here. (3) ACTION MAJESTY steps up off a nice win but these should prove to be much tougher.

Race 3

(8) WEST RIVER CINDY could do no better than finish 2nd despite trotting a 27-flat kicker last week. That was a solid effort and now she returns quicker; top call. (3) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE made a big move that she couldn’t sustain, but that was a strong try and a slightly easier trip puts her right there. (4) ALLOVERAGAIN seems to be coming around and she should be a threat here racing from close range. (6) SHES GOT PIZAZZ is another who could take this contentious race with the right trip; using.

Race 4

(3) AMERICAN WIGGLE drops from the top class and gets a slight nod here based on that drop. (9) HUMBOLDT could be last early, but there seems to be ample early pace to chase; using at a price. (6) NIRVANA SEELSTER was good last winter and he’s hard to leave out at this level. (4) TRACEUR HANOVER should opt for closing tactics here which would likely serve him well.

Race 5

(4) TE KAWAU N disappointed as chalk last week, but he was under assault from the outset and hounded for the entire mile. He gets to drop to a logical spot here. (3) ITS JUST TOO MUCH comes off a very strong effort vs. a class-dropper and he should be a threat. (1) ROCKIN WIZARD took his life’s mark here last year and he is in good form. He could surprise here shipping in. (6) JINS SHARK was predictably claimed for $30K last week, but considering he had earned more than $113K prior to that race, him just being in for a tag is a red flag for me.

Race 6

(2) KENDALL SEELSTER came up a couple of strides short last week in a race she looked like she had wrapped up at the 1/8th pole. I’ll stick with her here. (3) REQUEST FOR PAROLE should get a better trip here drawing inside and she’s a factor for the exotics. (5) EXHILARATED needed a perfect trip and every inch of racetrack to reach up for her 11th win of the year. She may not land in the pocket, so I’ll play to beat her. (1) WITCH DALI missed some time, so she may need this one before producing her best effort.

Race 7

(2) TORRIN HANOVER had a comeback race and now moves inside. His 26 2/5 kicker last week indicates he is ready to roll now. (3) REAL SURREAL paced a big mile in the snow in his November 15th qualifier. He should be right in the mix here. (5) J M JACK OF HEARTS comes to play every week. He’s hard to leave off Pick 4 tickets. (6) LEVIS DAY responded well for driver Henry last week. He is another who is sharp and dangerous in a contentious race.

Race 8

(4) MAJOR HILL should handle this group with the big class plunge. (3) MAKE SOME LUCK was decent in his comeback race and improvement should be coming here. (6) POINTOMYGRANSON looked like the winner the entire way last week and he exploded off cover in the lane to get the job done. He should share despite stepping up. (5) NICKLE BAG is in good form and he will be passing some of these late to take a slice.

Race 9

(4) EASY LOVER HANOVER tends to dominate this class in the winter and now that he’s rolling, he may reel off a few more wins. (1) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP is capable of much better and he could trip-out here, but he might find the choice too tough right now. (7) ISITFRIDAYYET plateaued when he tried this this level in the spring after winning several straight. History is likely to repeat here. (6) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN wasn’t far behind the choice last time and Harris has driven him well. He is an exotics factor.

Race 10

This race looks tailor-made for a closer, so I’ll settle on (1) DREAMY FELLA who finally draws inside. (3) CAPTAIN DRAGON comes off a really nice win in the snow and he gets protected by trainer Auciello here. I’ll use him in this late Pick 4. (5) MACHS BEACH BOY flew home last time to win and he is another who can benefit from some expected solid fractions. (9) VELOCITY DRIVEN has three noted leavers to his inside which gives him a chance with his good late kick. (4) IM NOT BAD never misses a check it seems, and he should trip well enough to share here.