Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/2 Analysis

Meet Stats – 5 - 12 / $23.60 (-$0.40)
Best Bets – 0 – 1 / $0.00 (-$2.00)
Spot Plays – 1- 1 / $3.60 (+$1.60)
Best Bet – P L JILL (5TH)
Spot Play – BETTOR OPS N (1ST)
Pick 5 – 1,7/3,5,7/3,6/1,3,7,9/4 = $9.60
Early Pick 4 – 1,3,7,9/4/2,3,4/1,3,8 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 3,9,10/3,6/2,5/7,9 = $24
Race 1 – NW $8,200 L5 or $16,000 L10 - **$50,000 GTD Pick 5**
(1) BETTOR OPS N set some big fractions on a night where speed wasn’t holding, and he gets another try in the same class here where he should be tough. (7) REAL SURREAL is sharp now and he should get moving earlier here which has him in with a good chance. (4) THORN IN YOUR SIDE was coming on nicely late last week without threatening the winner and he should work his way into the Tri again. (2) ROCK THIS WAY tried to brush-and-crush but he couldn’t seal the deal. He should close for a piece of this.
Race 2 – NW $16,000 L5 OR $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED was out a long way early before clearing then he raced on the engine against a closer bias last week. He gets to drop here ad he can control this race from the outset. (5) BRODYS SCRAPPER was nailed right on the line in a good effort and he can contend here despite stepping up in class. (3) TORRIN HANOVER was very close last time he raced at this level; using underneath. (2) NICKLE BAG is another who should be closer racing at this level.
Race 3 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – ONT SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(3) ANGERS BAYAMA has been untouchable since he shipped here from Quebec and while this is tougher, he should be up to it. (6) PRESTIGE SEELSTER paced a big mile in beating easier and he is the choice’s main rival here. (4) BETTOR B GOING is capable of a big speed try but I don’t see him taking down both of the two above. (7) D GS SHALLWEDANCE is a good one to use on the bottom of the Super here.
Race 4 – F&M NW $11,500 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000 - **$50,000 GTD Pick 4**
(1) SUDDEN PASSING raced off by herself for most of the mile when she was last seen here two starts back and she could do similar here if she is asked to move early. (7) OUR VACATION keeps outracing her odds and she will pass them all one night soon; maybe tonight? (3) MANHATTAN AGAIN should be prominent throughout here and she is another who is in with a decent shot in a contentious race. (9) THIS DRAGON ROCKS is sharp, and she will be coming fast late. She can repeat with the right setup.
Race 5 – NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(4) P L JILL outclasses this group, and this is a race she should win. (1) ODDS ON AMETHYST has been moving earlier and putting himself in better position and he has been successful in the Open ranks previously. He should be an Exacta factor here. (2) ST JAMES GATE simply outclassed his rivals last time. This is much tougher. Use him on the bottom here. (5) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE is in great from and he’s hard to leave out of the Tri or Super.
Race 6 – 3YO OPEN
(4) LEGION SEELSTER had an impossible trip last week. He has a chance to clear these which would make him tough. (3) HERVEY HANOVER is sharp, versatile and dangerous and he’s on my Pick 4 ticket. (2) B STONEY raced great from the worst post last time and he is another who can win this with the right trip. (6) HP NAPOLEON rode a closer bias to a huge upset win last week. I’ll use him on the bottom this time.
Race 7 – NW $16,000 L5 or $26,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(3) POINTOMYGRANSON finished best of those that raced on or near the lead in his race last week and he should be tough here if the track is playing fair. (1) YACHT SEELSTER should be heard from on the class drop here. He’s in my Pick 4. (8) MONGOLIAN HERO re-rallied after losing the lead on the far turn and he is sharp now; consider at a price. (6) REAL WILLEY should go better here on the class drop but his break last week is concerning.
Race 8 – NW $5,000 L5 or $10,500 L10 - 1 3/8 Miles - #10 and #11 are Trailers
This is the first 1 3/8-mile pace and I’ll look outside to the two class-droppers (9) DRAGON STRIKER and (10) MAJOR HILL. Slight nod to the former who has a better win percentage this year and should be blasting off from the outside post while the latter leaves behind the rail horse. (4) VANILLA MALTED also drops and he should be up close early; using. (1) OSBORNE SEELSTER is sharp, and he could get a great following trip here; consider for the exotics.
Race 9 – HARVEST SERIES – 1ST LEG – ONT SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(3) THRILLING TIMES had a brutal trip to narrowly lose Monday night. He will get played heavily here, but he should be hard to beat with a decent trip. (6) MACHDAVID has been facing tougher and he can wake up vs. these; using. (8) EXCALIBER SEELSTER exits the same race where he led until late. He should be an exotics factor here. (1) THE FIRST STEP should be passing some of these down the lane. I’ll use him in the 3-4 slots of the Tri and Super.
Race 10 – NW $33,000 L5 or $175,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $80,000
(2) EAST END was 4th behind three that raced in the Breeders Crown in a race that was much tougher than this assignment. He gets the nod vs. these. (5) ROYAL RENEGADE missed by an inch when riding a closer bias home last weekend, but he is sharp, and he fits well in here. (6) BRAVE WORLD missed some time, but Roy drives him well and he should hit the ticket vs. this group. (1) ELLIS PARK was one of several winners that came from far back last weekend. He takes a big step up now and he is likely a fringe player in here.
Race 11 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $50,000 LT
(9) LYONS PEGASUS was a bias beater last weekend and he continues to roll. A fifth straight win is likely here. (7) CORTEZ THE KILLER raced tough when second to the choice and he seems like the logical alternative. (2) CLIFFHANGER can get a better trip here and hang around for a share. (4) JAY EYE EM was part of an early pace battle and then took a shuffle. Consider using him underneath here. (10) WINDSUN RICKY is always around the money and he could add some value to exotic wagers here starting from the second tier.