Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/17 Analysis
Best Bet: ISITFRIDAYYET (6th)
Spot Play: SHADOW WORLD (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4/1,3,4,7,9/2,4,7/1,7,8,9/1,2,3 = $36
EARLY PICK 4: 1,7,8,9/1,2,3/2/7 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 7/1,2,4,7/3,4,5/1,8 = $24
MEET STATS: 26 - 80 / $160.30 (+$0.30)
BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $14.50 (-$1.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 8 / $15.10 (-$0.90)
Race 1
(4) SHADOW WORLD was raging with pace but completely buried for the entire stretch drive last week. She can beat these with a better trip. (1) I SHADOW U finished ahead of the choice but was also one of the fillies that kept her from getting needed room down the lane. She fits here and should be an exactor factor. (2) SLY ELEANOR N shoots for three straight but these are tougher, and I'll play to beat her this time. (6) ONLY ONE STAR drops from non-winners of five races back to non-winners of three and she should be a factor here.
Race 2
(9) SHES GOT PIZAZZ re-rallied last week to almost pull an upset. She gets a slight nod as I price shop in a race full of possibilities. (7) STORMONT CHARLOTTE got the jump on the choice in a good effort and she should be tough right back. (4) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE was also in the photo with the top two and she gets a better post here; using. (3) ALLERAGE STARGAZER will set the pace again, but she would need more late speed to hold all of these off.
Race 3
This race will likely come down to a battle of the class droppers and I'll give (4) DUBIOUS CLAIM the edge over (2) FINE DIAMOND. Both are capable, but the former has a much higher win percentage over the last two campaigns. (7) POINTOMYGRANDSON's 27-flat kicker from November 10 is enough to interest me and use him in the Pick 5. (5) OSBORNE SEELSTER couldn't keep up to a leader who was in another gear last week. He's another with an outside shot racing near the front.
Race 4
(9) TORRIN HANOVER had mixed results racing down south but he is capable of beating this group even starting from this post if all is well with him; price play. (1) WALTER MITTY was a sharp first-up winner in this class last week. He is a contender here again. (7) JM JACK OF HEARTS may be better chasing horses and he should be dangerous here coming from off the pace. (8) PRO BEACH is one of the better-bred horses around, but he only has one win to show for it this year. He's not impossible in this spot.
Race 5
(2) CROFT BAY N was game in defeat last week to a horse who paced out of his skin. He gets top call here off that game effort. (1) SHADES OF BAY looked like a new horse with Lasix added last week and he could step up and repeat here. (8) JINS SHARK is quite capable at this level and even starting from out there he is on my tickets. (3) TE KAWAU N is another class dropper with a good chance in a race with several live contenders.
Race 6
(2) ISITFRIDAYYET looked as good last week as he did earlier in the year when he reeled off several wins in a row here. He jumps several classes here, but it won't matter if he brings that same race to the track again tonight. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER makes sense dropping from the top class, but he may be racing for second here. (4) MONGOLIAN HERO N has raced tough on the rim for several weeks in a row and he should hit the ticket here. (5) HUMBOLDT steps up off a sharp win but he will likely be closing for a minor share vs. these.
Race 7
(7) SHAMBALLA should get the right setup here with some strong early speed to chase; top call. (4) NIRVANA SEELSTER drifted out which may have cost him a win last week. He should be the one to catch again. (6) ASAP HANOVER drops off a good effort and he should be passing many of these late again. (5) PISTON BROKE can wake up and crash the exotics at a price with a comeback race now under his belt.
Race 8
(1) NEON MOON - winner of 11 of 24 so far - comes off a sharp victory at the added distance in London and she looks primed to take win #12 here. (4) NO MO FO JOE showed some talent out west and this isn't the toughest spot; using. (2) QUINTS DREAM can be dangerous off a covered trip, but she has been racing on the rim lately, so it's hard to predict how she'll be driven here. (7) VINES TO HEAVEN steps up off a strong win but she likely won't get a lonely lead here; using underneath.
Race 9
(3) EASY LOVER HANOVER steps back up off a strong win and if he can replicate that effort, he'll be tough to beat here. (5) PHYSICALLYINCLINED had the worst trip last time and he felt the effects in the final quarter. He remains sharp and viable, however. (4) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP has won three of the last five Preferreds and any battling at any point of the race plays into his hand. (1) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN could trip out starting from the pylons and hit the ticket here.
Race 10
(1) MACHAL JORDAN paced a strong mile last week setting then chasing some quick fractions. He should be all systems go here in his fifth start back. (8) LINCOLNJAMES had no shot vs. a rejuvenated Isitfridayyet last week, but he did pass some rivals late. He fits here; using. (7) DREAMY FELLA can wake up with a much better effort moving inside here; consider for exotics. (3) MCDAVE is a good one to use to fill out Tris, Supers and High Fives. (10) NEEDLECREST can pass some of these late and possibly hit the ticket at a price.