Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/16 Analysis

Meet Stats – 32 – 94 / $159.00 (-$29.00)
Best Bets – 3 – 9 / $6.00 (- $13.00)
Spot Plays – 2 – 9 / $6.30 (-$12.70)
Best Bet – ANGERS BAYAMA – (7TH)
Spot Play – LIFETIME ROYALTY – (3RD)
Pick 5 – 3,6/5,7/4,8/1,6,8,9/4,6,9 = $19.20
Early Pick 4 – 1,6,8,9/4,6,9/4/1 = $12
Late Pick 4 – 1,5,10/2,6,7/7,8/3,5 = $36
Race 1 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 OR $7,000 L10 - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(6) PRETTY HOT produced her best effort in many starts when she won at this level last week and she draws the same post here in a bid to repeat; top call in the opener. (3) SLY ELEANOR N is going to get a good trip and pop one of these weeks. I’ll use her in this Pick 5. (5) ARTISTIC MADISON drops but she has only two wins this year and has missed four weeks. She is likely to get overbet here and I’ll play to beat her. (1) KAYS SHADOW is in good form now and she should take another share here.
Race 2 – NW $16,200 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(7) NIRVANA SEELSTER drops to a spot where he should control the race on the front end from start to finish. (5) AMERICAN VIRGIN made a couple of moves to win last week and he is the second one I’ll use here in the Pick 5 coming off that sharp effort. (4) HERVEY HANOVER raced well again last week, and he could be coming again for a slice. (1) LISBURN should sit another inside following trip here and make it into the Tri or Super.
Race 3 – HARVEST SERIES – FINAL – ONTARIO SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(8) LIFETIME ROYALTY had a brutal trip last week, but he did have some trot at the end of the mile when he was shown racetrack. Jamieson climbs aboard here, and he should provide an aggressive steer. (4) OKEANOS was flying late but the winner was long gone. He has a good chance to take this stakes series final. (10) A ROYAL LINE moved at the perfect time and sprinted away from the closers, many who got into traffic trouble. Leaving from the second tier is a different scenario and likely a tougher chore for this gelding. (5) MEEAS DREAM should be racing on or near the front early and hang around for a share.
Race 4 – NW $11,000 L5 or $24,000 L10 or NW $8,800 L4 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(6) MONGOLIAN HERO N had a rough trip last week but stayed game now he gets to drop in class here; slight nod. (9) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP drops and he should get put into play leaving the gate by teamster Jamieson; using. (8) NICKLE BAG ran into some traffic issues in the lane last week and he remains a viable contender here. (1) REGAL SON steps up off a sharp win and he could get another good trip here. He’s another in with a decent shot in a contentious field.
Race 5 – NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 AE: NW $70,000 LT
(4) HP NAPOLEON blew up the tote board last time he raced in this class and he could get a setup for his late kick here; top call. (6) PRICELESS BEACH was right behind the choice that night and he came back to race well vs. some good sophomores; using. (9) WESTSLUCKY TERROR raced tough last week and he could be a good price option here as he steps up one class level. (2) IDEAL JET is always a speed threat, but his form was much better in the summer; small share predicted.
Race 6 – NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(4) O NARUTAC PERFETTO drops to a likely spot and gets regular driver McClure back. He should be tough to beat here. (10) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO was motoring late last week and he could get a better trip here starting from the second tier; using. (1) WILD AND CRAZY GUY dropped and popped now he moves back up. Small share predicted in this spot. (5) TWOFOURROADIE should be passing rivals late again in this spot; using underneath.
Race 7 – HARVEST SERIES – FINAL – ONTARIO SIRED 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(1) ANGERS BAYAMA has been untouchable since shipping into Mohawk Park and he should take control early here and convert at another very short price. (5) THE FIRST STEP looks next best and he should close for second. (8) MACHDAVID raced well in this series so far and he should blast early and then hang around for a share. (2) BETTER B GOING should leave in the top flight then sit a following trip to take a slice.
Race 8 – NW $10,000 L5 or $20,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(5) WHAT A RUSH is sharp but he just can’t seem to get the right trip. Stepping up a level should ensure a good price here. I’ll stick with him. (1) P L JILL blew up at 2 to 5 odds last week. She is obviously one of the best in here, but what price would you take off that loss? (10) KAMERAN HANOVER drops and he should get a decent trip here; using. (7) HEAD TURNING JAG also drops and he should contend for at least a share in this spot.
Race 9 – NW $5,000 L5 or NW $10,000 L10 – 1 3/8 Miles
(2) YACHT SELESTER drops to a good spot here and Filion should put him on the lead early and defy anyone to come to him; top call. (6) KEEP COMING passed them all while the pace accelerated at Flamboro last time which isn’t something you see often. He is sharp and dangerous. (7) HEZA THRILL N also drops and he should be in the mix from the start. (1) SHADOW MOON was a winner at this distance two starts back and he’s worth a look off that race alone.
Race 10 – PREFERRED HANDICAP
(8) EASY LOVER HANOVER should be top dog here with the sharp mare that won this class last week gone. He gets top call over (7) PHYSICALLYINCLINED who beat him for 2nd by inches last week. (1) ROYAL RENEGADE should trip out here and finish in the Tri or Super again. (4) TRACEUR HANOVER can finish better here if he can latch onto some live cover; consider using underneath.
Race 11 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $56,500 LT
(5) MC PAT came back from a break sharp and he should be tough right back facing similar here. (3) CORTEZ THE KILLER can be closer here if he works out a better trip; using. (2) SAUBLE PLAY has been excellent at London lately but this a tougher and a slice is likely his ceiling HERE. (8) ARUKIDINME CABBIE was flying late last time when second to the choice. I’m not sure what kind of a trip he can get starting from out there, but he is capable. (10) CLIFFHANGER should trip well starting as the trailer. Toss him in the High-5.