Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 11/10 Analysis
Best Bet: NIRVANA SEELSTER (6th)
Spot Play: SHADES OF BAY (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,5,9/1,5/1,7,8/4,6/8,10 = $19.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,6/8,10/1/3,6,7 = $12
LATE PICK 4: 3,6,7/1,9/2,5,6/2,5,6 = $54
MEET STATS: 11 - 40 / $71.40 (-$8.60)
BEST BETS: 3 - 4 / $14.50 (+$6.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 4 / $11.10 (+$3.10)
Race 1
(9) WHAT CHAPTER fired home in 27 4/5 despite missing five weeks and he figures to get a solid pace to chase here; top call in the opener. (3) TREASURED TEE was no match for Veyron, but he gets to drop back down here, and he should be the one to catch. (4) CHEATALOTPOV tried new tactics last time and it almost paid off. Look for him late in this spot. (5) BARNEY MAC has faced better regularly, and he isn't out of the question in this spot.
Race 2
(1) JM JACK OF HEARTS almost beat non-winners of seven races last time, so he should be tough in here. (5) WALTER MITTY was also in a tougher spot last time and he wasn't disgraced. He should be a player here. (3) GERARDO tripped out to take a rare win last time. I'll use him underneath. (8) KWIK TALKIN is in solid form and he could crash the exotics at a price.
Race 3
(2) MASSMADE's second last start is good enough to win this if he can stay flat this time. (8) HIGHLAND DYNAMITE confidently sat until the lane then cruised by vs. easier. She should be a threat here. (7) ALONA converted with a catch driver and that pilot sticks here; using. (3) CINDY LYNN rarely misses the top three and she can should be up close early which helps her chances here.
Race 4
(6) SHADES OF BAY adds Lasix and gets Henry back here. He should improve sharply. (4) NEEDLECREST raced his eyeballs out in defeat last week. I'll use him off that effort. (7) ITS JUST TOO MUCH was out of position last time, but he was still passing horses late. He should close for a share. (3) MCDAVE rarely wins, but he's another good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 5
(8) ISITFRIDAYYET looked a winner until the last few strides last week when he tired. Slight improvement here gets him to the winner's circle. (10) LINCOLNJAMES takes a big drop here and he should be on go from the start. (3) HES A SENSATION can close for a piece in this field. (9) MOONWRITER is sharp and he likely won't get bet again; consider for exotics.
Race 6
(1) NIRVANA SEELSTER takes a big class plunge here and he should control it from the outset. (6) HUMBOLDT drops slightly, and he usually performs well in this class; exacta factor. (2) ROOTIN TOOTIN comes off two solid tries and he's another good one to use underneath in this spot. (8) PISTON BROKE returns to start his winter campaign and he could be closing for a small share here.
Race 7
(7) VELOCITY DRIVEN lands in a spot where he should be the boss; top call at a short price. (3) COOL ROCK also drops, and he could be the one to knock the choice off if he can get the jump on him. (6) NICKLE BAG should be better in this class and with some post relief, but a smaller share is likely. (2) ROSE RUN QUEST is in good form and he could round out the tri or super off a following trip.
Race 8
(9) ONLY ONE STAR faces tougher here, but she is razor-sharp and she should offer a good price; slight nod. (1) DON'T STOP BELIEVIN raced well vs. tougher and she'll rightfully take heavy action here; using. (8) BETTIM JACKIE has had a fantastic year racing mostly on the Maritimes, but she was good here last winter, too. Toss her in the late Pick 4. (3) QUINTS DREAM will likely look to trip out here after a failed first up try; small share predicted.
Race 9
(2) EASY LOVER HANOVER will likely look to control this dropping from the top class and if he gets one breather, he'll be tough. (5) AMERICAN WIGGLE beat the choice last time, but he had a better trip. He should be a threat here. (6) SHAMBALLA is coming back to his best form and he's not out of the question here. (3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was well-driven to win last time, but he's in with a shot vs. these, too.
Race 10
(2) SCOUTS REPORT is back in the same class for more after just missing his life's mark last week; call to repeat. (5) LARRYS PETROCK looks well-prepped for his return to the circuit and he could be right there vs. these. (6) ROCKY J SQUIRREL will likely get sent this time and he's in with a decent shot if he gets good position early. (4) BEACHIN LINDY raced better last time; consider for exotics. (10) ALI has class and speed but also the worst post; your call.