Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 1/11 Analysis

Meet Stats – 99 – 324 / $555.50 (-$92.50)
Best Bets – 13 – 32 / $42.70 (- $21.30)
Spot Plays – 4 – 32 / $33.30 (-$30.70)
Best Bet – SINTRA (2ND)
Spot Play – FANCOURT (8TH)
Early Pick 5 - 6,7/6/1,6/2,3,4,5,7,8/1,2,3,5 = $24
Late Pick 5 - 4,8/4,5/1,3,8/1,3,4/1,7 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 - 2,3,4,5,7,8/1,2,3,5/4,8/4 = $48
Late Pick 4 – 1,3,8/3,4/1,7/4,10 = $24
Can Am Pick 4 – 1,7/2,3,4,5,7/4,10/5,7 = $40
Race 1 - NW $6,000 L5 NW $15,500 L10 AE: OPT. CLM. $20,000. - **GTD $50,000 Pick 5**
(6) ZEUS LIGHTNING raced decently from the worst post last time in a good field, now he draws one of the best starting slots; top call. (7) TIKI TAKA is hot, and he has been grinding out some tough miles. He can handle this step up in his current sharp form. (9) DOTTIE finished third more than 33% of the time last year and she can add some value to the Tri starting from the worst post. (10) BAUTISTA will get covered up at the start here and he should be in the mix for a share.
Race 2- PREFERRED HANDICAP
(6) SINTRA was ready to roll racing off an eight-month layoff last week and he will be very tough to beat again. (4) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL loves this track and she isn't without a shot despite facing males here. (2) EAST END raced tough on the engine until late last week when Sintra went by and then he was nailed for 2nd. He will be a threat for a good share again. (3) SO SURREAL will be closing again and he is likely to be covered up until late then pass a couple to land in the Tri or Super.
Race 3 - HORSES WHO HAVE RACED FOR A PURSE $9,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF L3
This is a good spot for the sharp (1) JAY EYE EM, who has some options starting from the rail and this is a field he can handle if provided with a reasonable trip. (6) THE REV got a confidence-building win at Flamboro and he also fits well here. I'll use these two only in this leg of the Pick 5. (9) RACEMUP gets Henry here and that should mean early aggression. He is in the exotics mix. (6) CASIMIR OOPS missed a month, faced tougher, and had broken equipment last time. Some factors should swing his way this time and he can hit the ticket.
Race 4 - NW $3,750 L5 or $9,500 L10 - **GTD $50,000 Pick 4**
(2) OSBORNE SEELSTER was a stubborn winner in a similar class two starts back here and he should be the one to catch in a race with a few options. (7) HP NAPOLEON drops furthest, and he gets his nose on the gate here. He will likely get more aggressive in this spot. (8) INDIGO ART should be flying late again, but he may be too far back to pass them all starting from this wide post. (3) CROFT BAY exits a race where a class-dropper dominated. He's another in with a shot in a contentious race.
Race 5 - 5YO and Younger NW3 or $55,100 LT
After blowing up at the start of the Valedictory final, (5) LYONS PEGASUS may benefit from getting a week off and get back on track here. (3) J M MANDAMIN is developing a lethal late kick and he should be heard from again here. (1) JKNR LIKETELL had a rough go of it in a stakes final and he could get a much better covered trip here; another possibility. (2) GRAND POOBAH loomed large on the turn in an improved effort last week. Give him a price look.
Race 6 - NW $11,000 L5 or $22,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(4) FREDDY BEAR seems to be sitting on a big race and he could get the setup he needs here in a race where the early pace should be solid; price play with the slight rise in class. (8) AMERICAN VIRGIN takes a big drop here and he is the one to beat in this spot. (10) ROCK THIS WAY gets driver Young back and a better post, and he should be coming late too; using underneath. (9) P L JACKSON was sharp last week but he figures to get stung a little early this time; small share predicted.
Race 7 - NW $16,000 L5 or $29,000 L10 or $120,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
This is a field that (4) TRACEUR HANOVER should dominate; Pick 4 and Pick 5 single. (5) FIXED IDEA took advantage of a slowing late pace last time and passed the winded choice and the rest to score a monster upset. I'm not sure the pace scenario is in his favor here, but he will be a factor. (9) DREAMFAIR B J is on a good roll for trainer Auciello and he should be a factor again despite his post. (2) EVENWOOD SONOFAGUN couldn't get by a stubborn leader late last week when it appeared he was going to get up. He should hit the ticket again.
Race 8 - NW $8,000 L5 or $16,000 L10 or NW $60,000 LT
(8) FANCOURT drops back down and gets a slightly better post. Macdonald is one of the best at blasting one off the outside of the gate. I expect aggression here. (1) CLASSIC PRO was close racing one level higher two starts back and he could trip out here racing near the front; using. (3) BETTOR OPS N is another class-dropper who should go better here, and I'll use him in this late Pick 4 as well. (10) PRO BEACH should trip well here; consider for use on the bottom of the Tri or Super.
Race 9 - NW $22,000 L5 or $36,000 L10 or NW $145,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000
(3) PHYSICALLYINCLINED drops and stands a good chance to pop here, his main rival being fellow class-dropper (4) ELLIS PARK who figures to be the main challenger. I'll use both in the late Pick 4. (1) ISLANDSPECIALMAJOR's race two starts back would put him right there if he can replicate that effort and he should be a good price. He's not out of this. (7) KEEP COMING can pass a few of these late and land on the ticket.
Race 10 - NW $5,900 L5 or $11,900 – Can Am Pick 4
(7) POINTOMYGRANSON and (1) REAL WILLEY both drop out of the same race and they should fight it out here. Nod to the former who should be on the engine from the outset. (10) LARRYS PETROCK has been very good of late and he should be in the hunt again for a share. (9) UF BETTORS HANOVER has been sharp for weeks and he will be passing horses late; consider for the Super at a price.
Race 11 - NW $3,750 or $9,500 L10
(4) PLAY JET RAY disappointed at 3 to 5 last week, but he was part of a contested pace that collapsed late. He can make amends here. (10) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE fits better here after facing some salty claimers for a few weeks; using. (1) BEACH PRO was part of the pace in the race the choice exited, and he could get a better trip here and pop at a price. (8) SHADOW MOON should be good for another small slice here closing from the back. (2) OUTLAW TURN N BURN brings some good form in from Ottawa and he can crack the High-5 in this field.