Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/6 Analysis
Best Bet: BRONX SEELSTER (8th)
Spot Play: JM JACK OF HEARTS (1st)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,3,7/5/2,3,6/4,5,6/1,5,7 = $16.20
EARLY PICK 4: 4,5,6/1,5,7/3,8/4,8,9 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 4,8,9/3/2,4,6/2,5 = $18
MEET STATS: 372 - 1157 / $2,120.10 BEST BETS: 62 - 103 / $214.20
SPOT PLAYS: 34 - 101 / $201.40
Race 1
(1) JM JACK OF HEARTS was starting what looked like a good late move when he broke stride at the head of the stretch in the Grassroots final. He can bounce back and beat these if he stays pacing. (7) SCOUTS REPORT closed well in a fast mile and he fits well here; using. (3) CROSS MY MIND steps up a level but with the speed he showed last time when taking a new life's mark, he can contend here. (8) GERARDO should be coming on late for a slice as he typically does.
Race 2
(5) BETTORS WISH raced too good to lose last time and there's no Bronx Seelster in here so that makes him a Pick 5 single for me. (4) YS SUNSHINE hasn't missed the board yet ad he was a winner here in August. He should be in the hunt here. (1) BETTER UP raced tough last time, but he couldn't close the deal as the chalk. He can take a slice. (3) SUNSHINES FINEST is another to consider for the exotics who should be well-placed early.
Race 3
(3) POWERFUL CHRIS paced a big mile in defeat over a wet track here last time. A slightly better trip can get her a win this time. (2) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP comes off a couple of tough trips, but she remains viable if she behaves. (6) IDEATION HANOVER also had an adventurous trip last time and she is one of the main contenders vs. these. (7) BETTER SINGLE tripped out to beat the choice last time. A repeat is unlikely, but she can take a share.
Race 4
(4) TUXEDO BAY drops to a level where he should be prominent. Expect him to get put into the race early. (6) CLASSIC PRO is erratic but capable on his best day; using. (5) ALWAYS N THE MONEY comes off a sharp win out of town for a barn that has heated up recently. He's not out of this. (3) CITY OF THE YEAR faces tougher here, but he can close to hit the Super or Tri.
Race 5
(5) JINS SHARK steps up off a powerful win and while he isn't noted for stringing wins together, these aren't much tougher; call to repeat. (1) NICKLE BAG was a winner last time he drew inside, and he hasn't expended much energy in his last three starts from outer posts. He could be loaded for this try. (7) BEYOND DELIGHT has come around racing in this class and he should win one soon; maybe here? (2) CROFT BAY N could be closer here if he can work out a better trip.
Race 6
(3) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY moves inside and comes back much quicker here. Sharp improvement is likely. (9) SPORTS FLIX has raced well in all her last five starts and she merits close consideration here despite drawing outside. (4) CAFE SOCIETY rolled past some confusion to win last time. She will likely be closing for a smaller share. (8) CRISP MANE raced decently from the second tier last time and she can pass horses late; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(9) PHYSICALLYINCLINED takes a big drop here and an early blast is likely. (8) SHADES OF BAY also drops and he was a winner last time he raced at this level; using in the Pick 4's. (4) COOL ROCK moves inside and he too shows a recent win at this level. He should get a better trip here, too. (3) FREDDY BEAR should be passing a few of these late; using underneath.
Race 8
(3) BRONX SEELSTER is the king of this castle right now and he drew what looks to be an easy division; Pick 4 single at a puny price. (4) SPORTS TEEN comes off two upset wins in a row and he can close late to complete the exacta here. (2) KEYSTONE CONCRETE took five weeks off, so in this spot I'll look to beat him out of the exacta. (8) CAVIART ROCKLAND flashed a return to form last time but drawing outside here may have him fighting for scraps.
Race 9
(4) JIMMY FREIGHT is here to tune up for the $250K Superfinal next week, but anything close to his best probably still wins this. (6) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP keeps tripping out to win, but he puts himself in position early to get good trips. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (3) CONTINUAL HANOVER can close hard for another good share here. (1) NIRVANA SEELSTER may have knocked himself out for a bit with his 1:48 1/5 win over Lazarus N three starts back. It's hard to predict which version of him will show up here.
Race 10
(2) BACKSTREET SHADOW is another tuning up for the OSS Superfinal next week, but he kind of lays over these and should win if he gets put into the race as normal. (5) MAJOR HILL takes a drop and he is the logical alternative to the choice. (7) DUBIOUS CLAIM steps up off a solid win, but he may be closing from too far back here. (1) VALIDUS DEO is interesting shipping in and going into the Johnson barn; consider for exotics. (3) ST LADS NEPTUNE should be good to hit the High-5 ticket or Super.
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