Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/5 Analysis

Meet Stats – 315 – 888 / $1,581.70 (-$142.30)
Best Bets – 53 - 86 / $155,20 (-$16.80)
Spot Plays – 26– 86 / $121.50 (- $50.50)
Best Bet – LOVEDBYTHEMASSES – (2ND)
Spot Play – ZAKARINA – (1ST)
Pick 5 – 1,4,9/3/4,6/4,7,8,9/1,2,4,7 = $19.20
Early Pick 4 – 4789/1247/67/10 = $32
Late Pick 4 – 8/9,10/1,6,7,8/1,4,6,10 = $32
Race 1 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 2YO FILLIES - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(4) ZAKARINA produced a decent rally for Roy last week despite having some trouble during the race and I’ll give her the call to upset in the first of eight Grassroots finals. (1) ZEBS FLUR is hot at the right time as she goes for four straight here. She’s the one to beat. (9) MOANA converted a good trip into a win last week and she has the speed to get away decently from this post; using. (6) CANADIAN TITAN will be close early and she should stick around for a small share.
Race 2 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 2YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(3) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES has dominated this Grassroots division and it would take something out of the ordinary to get him beat here. (8) AUSSIE LOVER has raced well decently, and he never gets bet. He could add some value to the Exacta here. (10) AWESOMEDABRA was expertly-driven to win last week but facing the choice now the task becomes much tougher; using underneath. (9) MAGIC BOB was no match for the choice last week, but you know he is getting sent hard off the gate here and he should last to be a part of the Tri or Super.
Race 3 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 2YO FILLIES
(6) QUESO RELLENO impressed last week with a strong move to win her semi-final and she draws well here; top call. (4) MACH MY KISS was also very good, and she goes for four straight wins here. This race should come down to these two fillies. (5) KAT is right there every week, but she still has only one win; using on the bottom. (1) SO DELIGHTFUL should be much closer here leaving from the inside and she has upset possibilities.
Race 4 – NW $8.200 L5 or $16,000 L10 - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
(8) MIDWAY ISLAND drops again after getting a tough trip vs. better and he should get sent hard leaving the gate this time; top call. (7) THOR DE VIE was racing okay in New York and he fits well here; using. (4) AMERICAN VIRGIN exits two very fast races and he should be much closer in this spot with Ellis Park gone. I’ll use him on multi-race tickets. (9) CLASSIC PRO was good last week coming off the shelf and he shouldn’t be tossed here despite stepping up.
Race 5 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 2YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(7) QUICK TOUR has had no trouble overcoming posts 9 and 10 the past two starts and last week he was very impressive. He should be tough to beat here. (4) POSEIDON SEELSTER rallied nicely last week, and he may add some Exacta value here in this final. (2) DAY DELIGHT set big splits and held sway. He isn’t out of this. (1) MAYHEM HANOVER was raced conservatively last week, but I’m not sure post 1 is the best spot for him in here. He is another who is obviously capable in a very good race.
Race 6 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 3YO COLTS AND GELDINGS
(7) SOUTHWIND FROST had no kick as the chalk last week but he was already in the final and had 16 days between starts then. He can rebound here at a better price. (6) JUDGE KEN was never seriously threatened despite winning by a head and he is the obvious danger. (4) ROYALE ELITE tripped to win but he wasn’t close to the top two choices in his previous two starts. I’ll use him underneath only. (9) GOLD EDITION has improving form and he could take a slice at a price here.
Race 7 – Preferred Handicap
(10) EASY LOVER HANOVER is too good to oppose right now, and McNair can find him a spot in the top 1/2 of the field early. A threepeat looms. (8) NIRVANA SEELSTER was chased down late by the choice last time and he should be the one to catch again. (1) MAKE SOME LUCK takes a big step up but he is in top shape and he could rally to hit the ticket here. (9) PHYSICALLYINCLINED can never be tossed from Tri or Super consideration it seems; use on the bottom.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 3YO FILLIES
(7) SO MUCH MORE sticks out in this field and she should be very hard to beat at a short price. Seek value underneath. (4) SAULSBROOK JESSIE raced okay to be third to the choice last time and she could get more aggressive early here and land in the Exacta at a price. (8) KYLIE SEELSTER was a distant second to the choice last time and she could get a rough ride here drawing outside that rival. (9) SWIFT ALLY is in tremendous form, but the draw does her no favors here. I’ll try to beat her out of the Exacta.
Race 9 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 3YO FILLIES – Pick 4
(8) SPLURGE ON ME has been on a different level racing on Lasix the past two starts and she is the one to catch and beat here. (9) PETRO HALL chased the choice in vain last week, but she could blast early and get good position then complete the Exacta again. (2) CAMBRIDGE KATE can get a better trip here and she should be part of the Tri in this spot. (4) REBELLIOUS LADY won from the 10-hole last week but that was the weaker elimination. She had no answer for the choice two starts back.
Race 10 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES – GRASSROOTS FINALS – 3YO COLTS and GELDINGS
(10) FAST N FIRST dominated last week after finishing 2nd in the Little Brown Jug and he gets top call here despite his post. (9) DREAMFAIR MOXY was super in the other semi-final and his excellent current form should be respected here. (5) SPORTSLINE should contend for a decent piece of the pie here but he will likely find the top duo too tough. (6) HP NAPOLEON can rally late at price; consider for the Super.
Race 11 – NW $5,400 L5 or $10,000 L10
(8) TYGA HANOVER drops to a logical spot after chasing some tough ones recently. Filion has to be sending him here. (7) MAJOR HILL could fall into a nice pocket trip here if he blasts. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (1) WALTER MITTY is worth a look moving into Boyd’s barn for this race. (6) THE REV is reunited with driver McNair who knows him well and they have an upset chance vs. this group.
Race 12 – NW $16,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $133,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $45,000
(4) POINTOMYGRANSON drops for his second start back and he could get the setup he needs here; call to upset. (6) ROYAL RENEGADE dominated as expected last week vs. lesser, but he isn’t outclassed here; using. (10) CASIMIR RICHIE P is another class-dropper in with a shot here but post 10 may thwart his designs on taking a win. (1) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP moves up off a loss, but his price goes up and he could do if he gets a better trip. (9) DRAGON TIME is in the mix every week and this is another spot where he should take a check.