Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/26 Analysis

Meet Stats – 362– 1023 / $1,845.30 (-$200.70)
Best Bets – 62 - 97 / $181.50 (-$10.50)
Spot Plays – 30 – 97 / $149.80 (- $42.20)
Best Bet – WARRAWEE UBEAUT – (5TH)
Spot Play – ASIAGO – (4TH)
Early Pick 5 – 4,6,8/1,3,4/4/1,3,5,9/5 = $7.20
Late Pick 5 – 2,3,5,7,8/2,4/5/1,3,6/1,2,3,8,9 = $30
Early Pick 4 – 1,3,5,9/5/2,3,5,7,8/2,4 = $40
Late Pick 4 – 1,3,6/1,2,3,9/8/1 = $12
Race 1 – NW $25,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $140,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000 – **$100,000 GTD Pick 5**
(8) ROYAL RENEGADE had little chance last time vs. some Breeders Crown entrants when trying to come from 9th at the three-quarters. He fits better here, and he should be a good price; slight nod. (4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED exits the same race and he should be put into action early; using. (6) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP was flying late last week, and he picks up Gingras here. He is another viable Pick 5 option. (9) MAKE SOME LUCK is another who fits better here, and he could crash the exotics at a price.
Race 2 – BREEDERS CROWN FINAL – OPEN MARE PACE
(4) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL raced great vs. male Breeders Crown entrants last week when she was coming off a month break and I’ll take a swing with her to slay the giant here. (1) SHARTIN N has put together a phenomenal year and she is always the one to beat in this class. (3) CAVIART ALLY has been right there all year – never missing the board once and she comes off a win over Shartin in Kentucky. She in another obvious contender and is peaking at the right time. (7) KISSIN IN THE SAND raced well over this track several times in the summer. She should get a piece of this.
Race 3 – BREEDERS CROWN FINAL – OPEN MARE TROT
(4) MANCHEGO is hard to go against here considering how good she has been in her past four starts. (3) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP looked really good powering down the lane last week and you know she will be laying closer to the lead here. She was only a half-length behind Manchego at Lexington; most likely upsetter. (5) DARLING MEARAS S tripped-out to win her elimination and she should be good for a share here. (6) HANNELORE HANOVER wasn’t used hard in her elimination. She should get more involved here and land in the Tri or Super.
Race 4 - BREEDERS CROWN FINAL – 3YO FILLY TROT - **$100,000 GTD Pick 4**
(3) ASIAGO put in a good late burst last week and she could get a setup here and motor by them all late at a square price. (1) THE ICE DUTCHESS controlled her elimination from start-to-finish, which likely won’t happen here with her starting from the innermost post, but she should be a big threat regardless. (5) WHEN DOVESCRY was beaten by a filly that scratched out of the final and while she is an obvious player here, with only one win in her past four starts, I am inclined to try to beat her. (9) ONLY TAKE CASH is a hard one to leave off Tri tickets because she is so consistent, but her task is tough here leaving from post 9.
Race 5 – BREEDERS CROWN FINAL – 3YO FILLY PACE
(5) WARRAWEE UBEAUT has dominated this division since late August and there is no reason to think she will be knocked off her perch here. She is a multi-race single for me. (4) TALL DRINK HANOVER paced an excellent mile following the choice last week and she looks like she is coming into this race perfectly. Note she is the last filly to beat the choice in the Shady Daisy on Hambletonian day. (3) TREACHEROUS REIGN seems destined to fight for a minor share behind the top two. (7) PHILLY HANOVER is racing well, and she is a good price option to use underneath.
Race 6 – BREEDERS CROWN - FINAL – OPEN PACE
(2) JIMMY FREIGHT draws perfectly here, and he has shown several times that he loves this track. Last week’s race should have him perfectly primed for this Breeders Crown try. (8) MCWICKED is having another great year and has turned his game up a notch late in the season. He is the horse to beat. (7) DORSODURO HANOVER was solid last week when getting the jump on the choice then powering home. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (5) COURTLY CHOICE has a flair for the dramatic and he’s another who has had some big moments at Mohawk Park. Look for him to be motoring late here.
Race 7 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL – 3YO COLT AND GELDING TROT
(4) GREENSHOE has totally dominated this division since his narrow upset loss in the Hambletonian and he has a shot at Horse of the Year depending on how things shake out tonight; top call. (2) DON’T LET’EM has been impressive of late and I am going to use him as a price option in the cash leg of this Pick 4. (1) GREEN MANALISHI S – stablemate to the choice – can sit a trip here and take a good share. (8) FORBIDDEN TRADE races on home soil here, but drawing post 8 makes it tough; using on the bottom.
Race 8 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL – 3YO COLT AND GELDING PACE
(5) BETTOR’S WISH produced a workmanlike winning effort in his elimination, and with that race out of the way, Dunn should turn him loose her to put an exclamation mark on a great sophomore campaign. (4) DANCIN LOU had a perfect run up the pylons to win his elimination, but he is peaking at the right time and he should be a big factor here. (2) CAPTAIN CRUNCH gets a driver change to Gingras here and he did beat the choice in the North America Cup in June on this track, but I am still inclined to use him underneath in this spot. (1) SOUTHWIND OZZI was a strong second to the choice in his elim, but the waters get deeper here and I see him completing the Tri or Super.
Race 9 – BREEDERS CROWN – FINAL – OPEN TROT - **$50K GTD Pick 4**
This will be my biggest swing for the fences all weekend as I take a stab with (3) MISSION ACCEPTED to notch a monumental upset. He seems comes up big on important days and despite having tremendous respect for the great (1) BOLD EAGLE, I just can’t take odds-on with him having shipped across the world and drawing the one-hole, which often can be tricky for trotters. (6) ATLANTA has trotted some big miles over this track and you have to think she will bounce back here with a better effort. (11) MARION MARAUDER should come on late again to take a small share racing on his home track.
Race 10 – 3YO OPEN
(1) FAST N FIRST had no shot last week from the 10-hole and now he moves inside. He will be put into this race; top call. (2) BLOOD MONEY has a much better chance here facing easier and he is another who should be heard from earlier this time. (3) STAG PARTY has yet to notch a win this year, but he has been racing better lately and he is in with a chance. (9) ROCKME ROLLME beat elders last week and he should be a good price here; using.
Race 11 – NW $8,200 L5 OR $17,000 L10 or NW $60,000 LT
(8) POINTOMYGRANSON was terrific last week and this step up isn’t that great; call to repeat. (2) BETTOR OPS N gets to drop slightly off a good effort. He should be right there again. (1) THOR DE VIE move inside, which gives him a good chance to share here. (3) MACH CODE has improving form, but these are tougher; using on the bottom.
Race 12 – NW $8,200 L5 or $17,000 L10 AE: NW $60,000 LT
(1) MONGOLIAN HERO raced too good to lose last week but the winner was too strong. He should be very tough in here. (5) THORN IN YOUR SIDE is improving and he should hit the ticket at a price here. (3) ROCK THIS WAY is always a good one to use underneath and he should be coming on late. (8) WESTLUCKY TERROR races best for Jamieson. He should be in the mix at a price here. (7) BILLS FELLA can come on late again and land in the Super or High-5.