Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/20 Analysis
Best Bet: THE DOWNTOWN BUS (9th)
Spot Play: IDEAL JET (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,5/1,2,6/5,8/5,8/2,4,6 = $14.40
EARLY PICK 4: 5,8/2,4,6/3,6/1,2,4,6 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,2,4,6/3,7/2,4/1,2,9 = $48
MEET STATS: 400 - 1243 / $2,263.90 BEST BETS: 66 - 110 / $232.00
SPOT PLAYS: 36 - 109 / $222.90
Race 1
(5) MISSION THREE took a new life's mark last week and the 2nd-place finisher came back and won easily this week already; call to repeat. (3) CROSS MY MIND drops a level and he's capable of a sub-1:52 mile with his best effort; using. (1) GERARDO continues to be win shy, but he should contend and hit the board here. (7) DRAMATIC POINT also drops, and he missed close to a month between his last two starts. He should improve here.
Race 2
(6) PHYSICALLYINCLINED won an all-out war in the back half last week and he is too sharp for me to go against right now. (2) NOCTURNAL BLUECHIP tripped out again to beat Jimmy Freight last time, but he tends to make his own luck with swift bursts at critical points of the race. He must be used in this Pick 5. (1) TRACEUR HANOVER couldn't repel the choice but racing inside on the front end wasn't the place to be a week ago. He could turn the tables here. (4) EASY LOVER HANOVER is better than he showed last time and hid odds will climb here off that line; consider for exotics.
Race 3
(8) JUST HER LUCK wasn't terrible in the OSS Superfinal and this should be an easier task; top call. (5) SHES LIGHTS OUT raced well off the shelf and she gets to take a class drop here. Expect a more aggressive try. (3) JUSTABIT MEAN takes a slice more than one third of the time and she'll be coming late here, as usual. (1) ART ANGEL BABY comes back quickly following a decent effort. She can grab a share off a good following trip here.
Race 4
(8) IDEAL JET will no doubt be on a speed mission with this big class drop. Catch him to greet the cashier. (5) SHAMBALLA had one good race and three bad ones now he adds Lasix, drops and he'll get pounded at the windows. What price would you take that he'll turn it around 360 degrees here? (2) TIGERS WAY finally broke the goose egg in his 2018 win column but stepping up here he figures to be closing late for a share again. Old favorite (9) MACHAL JORDAN returns here. Keep an eye on him for a couple of starts then be ready for his patented 'drop and pop' move.
Race 5
(2) ROCK THIS WAY is hard to love on the win end, but he drops here, and he could get a great trip starting from the inside; slight nod. (6) NICKLE BAG didn't get the best trip last time, but he was game, and he should be right there vs. these. (4) SHADES OF BAY is an obvious contender at this level, but his penchant for drifting out at virtually any point of the race makes him a risky proposition. (1) WALTER MITTY has been racing tough and he never gets bet; consider for exotics.
Race 6
(3) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN was beaten by two other class droppers last week but that was a decent effort, and this looks like an easier spot. (6) JINS SHARK drops back down and gets his favorite pilot back. He should bounce back here. (2) LINCOLNJAMES is another who should provide a better effort racing in this class. Notice he woke up when dropped to this level on September 15th. (5) ACTING OUT closed nicely late last time. Consider using him on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 7
(1) DUBIOUS CLAIM excels racing around this level and he should be right there on the class drop. (6) MONGOLIAN HERO paces 27-flat kickers every week and he too should appreciate getting some class relief here. (2) HES A SENSATION should be closer early here which gives him a reasonable chance at notching the upset. (4) BIG BANG BOOM was against it racing on the front last week. He could last longer here.
Race 8
(3) JM JACK OF HEARTS keeps getting ignored at the windows, yet he keeps winning. Will we get 6 to 1 again tonight? (7) HIDDEN DELIGHT has been facing tougher and the horse that beat him last time came back and won again at a higher class last Saturday; using. (6) STATEMENT MADE A will likely be over bet with that very fast Red Mile time showing, but he is in with a shot here. (2) CASIMIR RICHIE P is always in the hunt and he should be prominent throughout here again. He's not out of this.
Race 9
(2) THE DOWNTOWN BUS was bottled up until very late last week now he meets elders, but he should be up to it. (4) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT was against the bias last week and picked off by the pocket sitter late. He could be a tough leader here. (7) MAJOR HILL was perfectly tripped out to win and a smaller share seems likely in this spot. (6) REGAL SON was decent off the vet scratch last week. He can close again for a share here.
Race 10
In a race that looks wide-open, I'll take a swing with (2) MS MAC AND CHEESE who drops in class making her fourth start back. (9) BERNADETTE took a new mark in Lexington where everything was flying, but she fits here; using. (1) MANHATTAN PLAY has a goose egg in the win column this year, but her last race showed improvement and she could do here with a trip. (3) KIWI FOCUS N is capable on her best day and she figures to be close to the pace early which should help here. (5) TWICE AN ANGEL should sit a trip near the front and hit the High-5 ticket.
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