Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/19 Analysis

Meet Stats – 344 – 974 / $1,743.90 (-$152.20)
Best Bets – 59 - 93 / $173.50 (-$14.50)
Spot Plays – 29– 94 / $144.20 (- $43.80)
Best Bet - WARRAWEE UBEAUT (8TH)
Spot Play – THE REV (12TH)
Pick 5 – 4,5,7/1/2,7,8/7,8,9/2,4,5,6 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 7,8,9/2,4,5,6/3,6,7/7 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 1,2/1/1,5,7/3,6,7,9,10 = $30
Race 1 – NW $5,000 L5 or $10,700 L10 - **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(5) MONGOLIAN HERO N had no chance to close into a 26 3/5 kicker in his comeback race, but not getting a check allows him to drop again and he picks up driver Dunn, who has been red-hot at Mohawk Park; slight nod. (7) WESTSLUCKY TERROR takes a big class drop here and Jamieson is sure to be sending him. He should be tough vs. these. (4) TYGA HANOVER raced tough last time in this class after starting from the 10-hole and he is another in with a decent shot here. (2) CROFT BAY N almost blew up the tote board last time and he can close for a small share here.
Race 2 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES
The inside two look best here, but (1) EVIDENT BEAUTY has had (2) THE ICE DUTCHESS’s number most of the year. Nod to the former. (3) ONLY TAKE CASH remarkably has only missed the Exacta once to date. She is another obvious contender, but she will need to find more speed here. (6) GOLDEN TRICKS’ two races at The Red Mile were good and she could sneak into the Tri or Super here.
Race 3 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 2 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(8) BEAUTIFUL SIN was dynamite in the filly version of the Kentucky Futurity and she gets top call here over (2) WHEN DOVESCRY who may have not liked the off “good track” that day and would be no surprise if she bounced back. (7) ASIAGO gets her nose on the gate this time and she is capable of a big mile as seen two starts back vs. the choice. (3) MILLIES POSSESION is another who should bounce back with a better effort here. She has upset possibilities.
Race 4 – PREFERRED - **$50K GTD Pick 4 **
Interesting race here that has several Breeders Crown entrants – including a mare – prepping, and they obviously have a bigger fish to fry next week. I’ll give the nod to (9) JIMMY FREIGHT on his home track where he has performed at a high level many times. (8) COURTLY CHOICE also seems to love Mohawk and he will be coming late. (7) DORSADURO HANOVER should set sail for the front early and if his rivals are content to make their moves later in the mile, he could go all the way. (6) YOUAREMYCANDYGIRL is an interesting one to watch for next week, coming off a four-week break. Her sub-1:49 mile here this summer could make her a threat in the Mares Open Pace.
Race 5 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
(6) SOUL STRONG comes off a sharp effort in the Kentucky Futurity and I’ll swing away with him for an upset in this contentious Crown elim. (2) GREEN MANALISHI S doesn’t need to face his might stablemate until next week and that makes him the likely chalk and one to beat here; using. (5) DON’T LETEM may be turning his season around and he is worth a look for the multi-race bets off his excellent effort at Lexington. (4) GIMPANZEE is a hard one to leave out. It makes sense to price shop in this race.
Race 6 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - OPEN MARE
(7) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP is in excellent current form and she gets the nod over Mohawk Park lover (6) HANNELORE HANOVER who also comes into this race in fine fettle. (3) CUSTOM CANTAB has raced tough in top company all year and she’s not out of this. Local hope (1) DREAM TOGETHER is in great form now and she could spice up the exotics at good odds here.
Race 7 – NW $11,000 L5 or $22,200 L10 or NW $80,000 LT AE:OPT CLM $30,000
(7) ELLIS PARK comes back much quicker here and perhaps he will be gunning early; top call. (1) ROCKME ROLLME was picked off by the pocket-sitter who is now trying his luck in the Breeders Crown. He remains a viable option. (4) BETTOR OPS N should go better here starting from an inside post. Give him a price look. (5) CASIMIR RICHIE P could be better here racing off a helmet. I’ll use him underneath.
Race 8 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 3 YEAR OLD FILLIES
(6) WARRAWEE UBEAUT has been nothing short of sensational the past few months and she should convert here at odds of 1 to 5 or so. Local star (9) BODICEA supplemented here and she can produce big speed early. She gets an acid test here but is worth using in the exotics at a price. (5) TALL DRINK HANOVER has been great racing over this track in the past and I expect a wakeup performance here. (2) STONEBRIDGE SOUL was very good vs. the choice at Lexington and she is another who is in the mix here.
Race 9 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - OPEN MARE
It’s hard to imagine (8) MANCHEGO getting beat here, but it’s obvious that she will be offering a very low price. (1) ICE ATTRACTION was a good third to the choice last time without threatening her. She should best the rest of these. (3) EMOTICON HANOVER won this race last year and she can’t be tossed, but it will be tough for her against the choice. (4) HIGHLAND TOP HILL is at the top of her game and she may trip out and sneak into the Super late here.
Race 10 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS – Pick 4
(1) CENTURY FARROH was coming off a three-week break last week and he really didn’t get the trip he needed. His price will be much better here. (2) CAPTAIN CRUNCH is coming back to top form and he is the obvious horse to beat here. (3) DANCIN LOU is getting hot at a great time – having just beat the Little Brown Jug winner – and he’s worth a look here for the exotics. (7) STAG PARTY also has improving form and he should get a good piece of this.
Race 11 – BREEDERS CROWN - ELIMINATION - 3 YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS
(1) BETTORS WISH is having a tremendous season and adding Lasix here he will be very hard to beat at a short price. (3) SOUTHWIND OZZI will rightfully go off as second choice here, but he’s never beaten one as good as the choice and he could be racing for second here. Note, he also adds Lasix. (2) DE LOS CIELO DEO is talented but quirky. He could pose a threat if he is on his best behaviour. (4) BRONX SEELSTER was privately sold before this race which makes him interesting, but he’d need a huge leap in performance to threaten the top two choices.
Race 12 – NW $8,000 L5 or NW $16.000 L10
(5) THE REV raced oaky from the 10-hole in this class last time, now he gets McNair back and he should be prominent throughout here. (7) MAJOR HILL finished just behind the choice and he fits well vs. these; using. (1) MIDWAY ISLAND should be closer early this time and that gives him a decent shot vs. these. I’ll use him in this Pick 4. (3) BIT OF LUCK should be coming on late in this mile. He’s a good one to use in the 3-4 slots of the exotics.
Race 13 – NW $23,000 L5 or $30,000 L10 or NW $130,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $55,000 AE: 3YO
Interesting race with several horses in from each condition. (6) TRACEUR HANOVER frequently drops and pops and he has some options here leaving from the best post; slight nod. (9) NIRVANA SEELSTER is sure to blast off early on the class drop, but there is plenty of early speed in here that could soften him up. (7) YACHT SEELSTER fits well in this class and he should get a piece of this. (10) FAST N FIRST has been tremendous the past few weeks and he’s hard to toss despite getting post 10. (3) DREAMFAIR MOXY has hit the board 26 times this year so it isn’t a big stretch to think he’ll land in the top 5 here.