Woodbine Mohawk Park: Saturday 10/13 Analysis
Best Bet: STAG PARTY (8th)
Spot Play: TRACEUR HANOVER (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,5/3,6/2,4,5/7/4,8,9 = $7.20
EARLY PICK 4: 7/4,8,9/2,5,8/4,8= $18
LATE PICK 4: 3,6/4,5,9/1,7,9/5,6,8 = $54
MEET STATS: 391 - 1200 / $2,208.90 BEST BETS: 65 - 106 / $223.70
SPOT PLAYS: 35 - 105 / $215.90
Race 1
(1) DRAGON TIME has been facing the toughest competition of any of these lately and he should appreciate the class relief here despite missing some time; slight nod. (5) MCKINNEY gets off the inside post which should mean a more aggressive try this time; using. (4) P L IDAHO won as he should have dropping to the bottom conditioned level last time. He can factor here but I expect he won't last vs. these. (8) HES A SENSATION should be passing horses late for a share this time.
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Race 2
(3) SORCERESS SEELSTER is unquestionably the best one in here and last time she took a few weeks off she responded with a lifetime-best effort on August 16th; top call. (6) SUPERLATIVE was second best that night and she is the logical alternative if the choice falters. (4) ILLUSIONEESTA has a great record this year and she should add to it here by hitting the board. (5) MAGICAL LADY has still yet to win this year, but she is sure-gaited, and she can take another slice here.
Race 3
(2) FORBIDDEN TRADE navigated through some trouble to easily beat lesser last time, but he couldn't be sharper, and he will likely go off second choice here to (4) DREAM NATION, who took a new life's mark on the same night thanks in part to some swift early fractions. This race will could come down to these two in the lane. (5) OKEANOS was game despite getting a brutal trip last time and he gets a much better post here. He would benefit if the top two hooked up in a battle before the 3/4 pole. (6) TYMAL TULLO gets an interesting driver switch here; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(7) TRACEUR HANOVER has moved up sharply with Henry driving. I'll take a stand and single him in the multis expecting a big try. (2) VELOCITY DRIVEN is sharp and drops. He should be right in the mix here. (1) PHYSICALLYINCLINED dominated a field that he laid over last week. This is much tougher, but he should contend for at least a share. (5) JINS SHARK moves up off two sharp wins, but a smaller share is likely his ceiling vs. this group.
Race 5
(4) POWERFUL CHRIS was beaten by the second choice last week on a wet track which should help her price this time. She can turn the tables here with a trip. (8) BETTER SINGLE is the 'now' filly in the race and she's hard to leave out of the multis at this point. (9) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY is capable of a monster rally on her best day and she is likely to be overlooked here. I'll use her as a possible value horse in the multi-race bets. (1) QUEBEC BLUE CHIP seems to be going in the wrong direction, but she isn't impossible with a trip.
Race 6
(2) PRESTO CHANGE O was solid last time and from an inside post she should take beating here. (5) HP TITANIA RUNNER tripped out to win, but she's sharp and dangerous and shouldn't be penalized for getting a good steer. (8) TEDDYS LITTLEANGEL did all the heavy lifting last time and ended an unlucky loser; consider at a price from out there. (7) TOMMI CANU HEARME always pays huge when she wins, but she seems more likely to crash the exotics here.
Race 7
(4) STORMONT VENTNOR can be erratic at times, but he's one of the best in this division when he behaves; slight nod. (8) RUN DIRECTOR converted at a short price last time and he should be tough again; using. (10) JOEY BATS will likely get put into action early here by hot pilot McClure and he's worth a look at a price. (5) JULA DOWNTON can take a smaller share with a trip here.
Race 8
(1) STAG PARTY is the Metro Stakes winner racing against sires stakes foes; enough said. (6) BETTORS WISH is in top form and he could add a bit of value to the exacta if he can split the choice and likely second choice (5) BRONX SEELSTER here. (3) KEYSTONE CONCRETE got a golden run up the inside to win and while that was sharp improvement, his task is much tougher here.
Race 9
(6) PERCY BLUECHIP has been rejuvenated racing out of the Burke barn and she gets top call here over arch-rival (3) KENDALL SEELSTER, who can never be counted out. (8) SUDDEN PASSING should be flying late again, and she can complete a chalky Tri. (1) PLAY THE BELL should trip well from the inside and she's another good one to use on the bottom.
Race 10
(9) JIMMY FREIGHT was unlucky last week when an elder slipped up the inside to edge him late but that was a perfect primer for this sires stakes final and he gets top billing here. (4) THE DOWNTOWN BUS has been sharp as a tack recently and McNair driving won't hurt. (5) BACKSTREET SHADOW has excelled in Moreau's barn and he should provide a challenge to his stablemate, the choice. (1) LEVIS DAY often outruns his odds in these spots; consider for exotics.
Race 11
(1) HUMBOLDT takes a big class plunge here which should wake him up. (7) BIG BANG BOOM also drops and he will likely be blasting which gives him a good shot here. (9) ROCK THIS WAY is stuck on one win, but he retains driver Roy here which makes him a contender. (2) BEYOND DELIGHT is always around the money and he should hit the Super ticket at least.
Race 12
(8) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT drops to a likely spot and he should be sent forward immediately at the start; top call. (6) MAJOR HILL gave it his all last week, but a sharp sophomore was too tough. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (5) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN is another class dropper who merits a long look in this spot. (9) PRETTY HANDSOME was unbeatable vs. Grassroots foes but this is much tougher; small share predicted. (7) NATIONAL DEBT has won 22 of his last 59 starts but this is a tough spot. Peg him for a possible class drop next week if he misses a check here.
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