Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 9/30 Analysis

Meet Stats – 297 – 844 / $1,540.20 (-$147.80)
Best Bets – 50 - 82 / $147.40 (-$16.60)
Spot Plays – 26– 82 / $121.50 (- $42.50)
Best Bet – ALICORN – (3RD)
Spot Play – SUDDEN PASSING – (7TH)
Pick 5 – 1,6,7,10/7/5/2,4,5,6/1,3,5,7 = $12.80
Early Pick 4 – 2,4,5,6/1,3,5,7/8/2,4- $32
Late Pick 4 – 2,4/2,4/2,6/1,4 = $16
Race 1 –NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 – BILLINGS AMATEUR DRIVING SERIES - $50K GTD Pick 5
(1) STIRLING BOUDICA was involved in a highly-competitive Billings race at Delaware and she couldn’t advance after suffering interference at the start. She should be tough here getting driver Olford back as he is wining at a 25% rate. (6) SETANTA raced well at this class two starts ago and he gets a good post here. Britt Kennedy may roll him early. (10) OCEANVIEW DEB has been blasting recently, so expect another aggressive try here. (7) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO drops in class for this second start back and he should be heard from in the lane.
Race 2 – 5YO and Younger NW3 or $56,000 LT
(7) ROCKME ROLLME is simply faster than these right now and he is sure to get sent on a speed mission by Henry here; top call. (3) LEGION SEELSTER is the obvious danger coming in with a perfect record, but he will likely need more speed here. (5) READY TO RUMBLE N is an interesting price option because if there is a battle on the front end mid-race, he could blow by them all late. (2) FIXED IDEA is always closing, and he should come on for a share here.
Race 3 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD – 2YO Fillies
(5) ALICORN was dead game in the Shes A Great Lady final and just missed to another outstanding filly. She should have no problem getting back on track here, but she’ll offer a puny price. (2) ROSE RUN VANTAGE is likely to blast off the gate to get in Alicorn’s pocket early and she should complete this Exacta. (6) KEYSTONE KALIMBA looks next best in a race that isn’t likely to offer much in the way of payouts. (1) TEMAGAMI SEELSTER can sit a following trip and take a small slice.
Race 4 – NW 5 (F&M 7) or $70,000 (F&M $85,000) LT AE F&M NW $6,200 L5 – GTD $50,000 Pick 4
(5) SMART AS HILL wasn’t very good at 50 cents on the dollar last week, but he is likely best here if he can stay flat this time; slight nod. (4) NOTHING BUT MUSCLE has only 3 wins in his last 51 starts but he has been right there in three straight races and he should be in the mix here. (6) BLONDE MAGIC steps up off a nice win, but this isn’t the toughest group. I’ll use her on multi-race tickets. (2) HEY JOCK can be erratic at times, especially in the lane where he tends to drift out, but he should be on the Super ticket here.
Race 5 – 2YO NW1 $7,000 LT
(3) CHOIR MASTER was wildly overbet last time, then he made a rare three-wide backstretch move that stalled. He could be much better here, and the price should go up. (1) PLAY THERAPY was second to a colt that came back and paced a 1:50 4/5 mile vs. NW2 the other night. I’ll use this colt in the Pick 4 and Pick 5. (7) BEAUMOND HANOVER looks ready to deliver a solid debut performance; using. (5) P H IMPULSE should improve on his first Mohawk start but he loses McClure here which is a concern; using underneath only.
Race 6 – CLM HDCP $12,000 TO $15,000
(8) VERO AMORE BI can be tricky to drive at times, but he has the best form in here and gets top call by default. (7) ALPHA SEELSTER showed nothing when dropped into a claimer and he was claimed, as predicted. Maybe trainer Puddy can wake him up. (6) YOUUUUKILIS almost won last Tuesday, but he is stuck on one win in 32 starts this year. I’ll toss him in this Pick 4, but I wouldn’t take a short win price. (1) EXPLOSIVE JET gets Lasix and goes to Moreau, but she is another with only one win in more than 30 starts this year. Use underneath.
Race 7 – F&M NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10 – Pick 4
(2) SUDDEN PASSING had an impossible trip last week and no chance of catching the winner. She draws better here and gets Roy. Expect aggression. (4) NAUGHTY LADY B was right there vs. better and McNair jumps off the choice to drive her; using. (1) ROUND THE BEACH finished just behind the choice and she should be in the hunt throughout here. (3) SOS BAMBIE can sit a trip and sneak onto the Super.
Race 8 – ONTARIO SIRES STAKES GOLD – 2YO Fillies
(4) KARMA SEELSTER may have been a bit short last week after missing 17 days, but she won anyway which is the mark of a very good horse. She gets top call here. (2) BETALADY has to contend here dropping out of Grand Circuit competition; using in the Pick 4. (1) FREE FLYIN TICKET wasn’t far behind the choice last time. She could hit the board here. (3) OFF THE PRESS is worth a look for use underneath after facing the best fillies on the continent.
Race 9 – PREFERRED
(2) MARION MARAUDER pressed the pace in the Caesars Trotting Classic in an effort that is likely better than it looks in the program. This is where he takes his first 2019 win. (6) EMOTICON HANOVER was live in the lane at Delaware but she ran out of racetrack. She should be the choice’s main foe here. (5) DREAM TOGETHER has improving form and she can be part of the Tri here. (7) TOP EXPECTATIONS is worth a look for the Super on the barn change.
Race 10 – NW $6,000 L5 or $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(4) HEAD TURNING JAG takes a big class drop for his second start back and Henry should have him rolling early; top call. (1) ON THE ROPES raced decently chasing speedball Hey Livvy and he should have a big shot here making his second start for trainer Auciello. (3) SEVERUS HANOVER will be close up early and he should hang around for a good share. (6) MUSICAL SPELL is always a good one to use underneath at this level. (7) ALEXUS EH will be closing from far back. Use her in the 4-5 slots in the exotics.