Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 9/24 Analysis
Best Bet: FOR A DREAMER (6th)
Spot Play: KAZIMOTO (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,7,8/1,2,3/1,2,10/4,6/3,4 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 4,6/3,4/1,5/1,4,5 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 4,7/3,4,5/3,5,8/2,10 = $36
MEET STATS: 350 - 1078 / $2,015.60 BEST BETS: 56 - 96 / $194.40
SPOT PLAYS: 32 - 94 / $183.30
Race 1
(4) NEXT ISSUE moves into the Moreau barn here off the claim and he gets my nod with his main rivals lined up on the far outside. (7) CHEYENNE FORD is in solid form and he will likely set the pace here. (8) TOMY TERROR almost won with broken equipment last week with Gingras driving. He's a contender off that mile. (2) JENKINS CREEK is always a threat at this level it seems and he's another that can take this if he gets his trip.
Race 2
(1) MINOR OBSESSION probably won't get the same easy trip she got last week, but she fits well here, and she should be a big threat anyway. (3) CONFESSION SESSION has been facing some tough ones and she should wake up with a better try in this spot; using. (2) SETTE DEO gave it a good try in Grand Circuit company. She fits better here and is another one to consider for the Pick 5. (4) BLUE RIBBON GAL is always a threat with her good tactical speed and she may get an easier trip here.
Race 3
(2) MAGICAL LADY gave it a good try vs. a couple of good ones last time, but she shriveled up a bit late. This looks like an easier spot and she gets a better post and my nod. (1) STRENGTH OF A WOMAN was right there in this class twice straight in August and she can bounce back here. (10) Y C BROADWAY could easily be the best one in here, but with post 10 she will be one of three I'll use in the Pick 5. (7) P L KETCHUP races well for Saftic; consider for exotics.
Race 4
(4) AMERICAN RISK was flying late last week and while he's sure to get plenty of play off that mile, he does look best here. (6) PURE SUNSHINE was just behind the choice and he will likely be the one to catch here; using. (1) PHILS SUN debuts for a barn that can have one ready, and this isn't the toughest spot to start out; consider for exotics. (7) FOLLOWYOURDESTINY made a big recovery last time and if he can stay flat he may threaten here.
Race 5
(3) MUSSELSFRMBRUSSELS comes back to town and goes for the Shepherd barn. Note he took a mark of 1:50 flat here last week. He can be very tough in this spot. (4) CAJON THOMAS was impressive last week sustaining a long first-over bid chasing and overcoming swift fractions. He's a must-use for me here. (5) MCDAVE fits well in this class and he is another that should be in the mix again. (2) PAPARAZZI HANOVER stopped to a walk late in the mile last week but moving inside gives him a chance to rebound with a better effort.
Race 6
(1) FOR A DREAMER trotted a mile two starts back that would leave his rivals racing for second money here if he can repeat it; top call. (5) EX HANOVER has been driven more aggressively lately than she was earlier in the year and she has been right there most weeks. She's the most likely to upend the choice. (4) KINNDER DANGEROUS brings solid form in from out of town, but he seems most likely to take a slice here. (7) MONI JUSTICE raced better last time and she has some races in the past that would put her right there with these if she can recapture her best form.
Race 7
(5) KAZIMOTO has won off the shelf before and his qualifier was good. I'll give him top billing here. (4) FREDDY BEAR was really motoring late in the mile last week, but he often comes too late and he will likely be chalk here. What price will you take? (1) SINGLE WHITE SOCK does his best work when he races at the lower conditioned classes. I'll use him in this Pick 4. (9) SENIOR K never gets bet, but often hits the board. Consider using him underneath.
Race 8
(7) BLONDE MAGIC won last time she raced in this class and she should be tough here exiting a Grand Circuit event. (4) WHAT CHAPTER couldn't quite reach up as the choice last time, but he remains viable in this spot; using. (9) JORDAN BLUE CHIP was just behind the choice last time and she is worth a look for the Tri and Super here. (10) CANTABERNET is sharp, but from out there I expect he'll be fighting for a minor share.
Race 9
(3) BETTER EARL comes back to action off a solid qualifier and he lands in a good spot; top call. (4) LUZIANA barely makes the earnings cut in the race conditions and he has faced a steady diet of better colts. He is a top contender here. (5) FOREVER FAV is also in a better spot here and Zeron will likely be more aggressive with him; using. (7) SPORTY MCSPORTSTER was second in a similar class five starts back. He could wake up here.
Race 10
(3) DRUNKONAPLANE is capable in this class, especially if he gets put into the race earlier which very well could happen here with Macdonald driving for the second time. (5) PAR INTENDED was right there in a fast mile last time and he may be the one to beat here. (8) LEVY TAYLORE couldn't catch a gutsy winner last week, but that was a good effort and he merits a look for the Pick 4 here. (6) UNION MAN HANOVER is a closer who can roll up late for a slice here.
Race 11
(2) J J MYSTIC STORM tipped his hand last time with a good late close. This isn't a tough spot and he may pass them all. (10) TIGERS WAY rarely wins, but, this is his easiest spot in a long time and his post may ensure a good price; using. (5) BROOKDALE SONNY set some big fractions last time then tired. With a trip, he should share here. (9) BS TYRRIFIC's last race is probably better than it looks on paper. He can make the ticket here. (1) A FARMBOYS SUCCESS can close again and take at least a slice.
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