Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 9/17 Analysis
Best Bet: PURE SUNSHINE (8th)
Spot Play: BIG BANG BOOM (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,3,4,6/1,5,6/1,5/3,8/2,7 = $24
EARLY PICK 4: 3,8/2,7/1,4/7 = $8
LATE PICK 4: 7/3/2,3,6/ALL = $30
MEET STATS: 336 - 1032 / $1,925.10 BEST BETS: 55 - 92 / $191.10
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 90 / $173.80
Race 1
Tough race to kick off the Pick 5, but I'll give a slight edge to (4) MINOR OBESSESSION who should be right there vs. these if she can stay flat. (2) SILVER has some lines that puts her square in the picture here, but she also has had gait issues. (6) ANGEL MAGIC fired home quickly last time and she has some upside; using. (1) CHAMPAGNE JANE is Grand Circuit-placed and sure gaited. She's another who can win this tricky race.
Race 2
(1) NEEDLECREST tried hard last week, but he was simply too far back as the pace accelerated. I'll stick with him here in this short field. (5) LISVINNIE was against a speed-killing sloppy track and predictably faded late. He can bounce back here. (6) DEEPFAVE HANOVER comes up tagged and he'll likely get pounded at the windows, but he's no lock here. (2) REGIL TIGER is racing well in this barn and he's not out of this, but a smaller share seems likely this time.
Race 3
(1) SUPERLATIVE has been solid all year and facing colts didn't seem to matter last time; call to repeat. (5) WHAT CHAPTER is classy and fast, but he does make the odd miscue so he's hard to trust as a big chalk. (4) VEYRON has been getting closer recently. His first win of the year can't be far off. (8) CANTABERNET tripped out to win in the slop. This will be tougher, and he will likely close late for a smaller share.
Race 4
(3) CRUSHER Q and (8) SILAS SEELSTER look like they had this race written for them, with both just making the earnings cut. Top call to the former who raced okay in Grassroots company last time. (7) SUGARTOWN is worth a look changing barns for this. (4) JAY EYE EM may be the one to chase down late but a smaller share seems likely for him in this spot.
Race 5
(7) MAC RAIDER lands in a spot where he may be able to control the pace; slight nod. (2) BS TYRRIFIC is on the improve and moving inside should allow him to get away better; using. (9) LEVY TAYLORE faced tougher last time and took a check. He has a shot here if he can beat a few of these off the gate. (10) PAPARAZZI HANOVER isn't out of the question here, but his chances probably hinge on how hard he has to work to clear to the front early. I'd demand a price with him.
Race 6
(1) SUNSHINES FINEST gets away from the tough Bronx Seelster here and he gets a slight nod over (4) TWIN B WATCHING who steps up off a fast win. I'll use both in the Pick 4. (5) TIME TO DANCE can leave for position then stick around for a share here. (3) ROUSSEAU rolled by late on a very sloppy track and while these are tougher, he should hit the Super.
Race 7
(7) BIG BANG BOOM recaptured some of his good early zip last time and hung in there in a fast mile and now he gets to take a class drop. That probably means doom for his rivals here. (4) FREDDY BEAR also drops out of the same race and he could close late to complete the exacta. (3) OSBORNE SEELSTER is sharp, but he may end up providing a perfect pocket for the choice if that one chooses to let him lead for a while; small share predicted. (5) LEAFS AND WINGS had everything in his favor last week and he converted. Look for him to close late for a slice.
Race 8
(3) PURE SUNSHINE left, led, let one go and took a shuffle, almost got pushed off the track in early stretch, then got blocked with pace deep in the lane. I think Henry will aim to control affairs here. (1) CALVERY HILL may get overbet based on the final time in his debut, but he should improve and contend here. (2) LYONS COPPERTOP COMES off a good win out of town and he should hit the Tri racing up close here. (4) SHADOW OF A DAUT improved racing in the slop and another board finish wouldn't be a surprise.
Race 9
(3) RED JOHN had a rough trip in the heavy slop as chalk but missing a check allows him to take another class drop and he should be tough here. (6) CLASSIC PRO also drops again and if there are no mishaps this time, he should be a threat. (2) SPEEDLING is the kind that can sit a good trip near the front then pounce late in a race like this. I'll use him in the Pick 4. (4) A FARMBOYS SUCCESS faced some tough ones here two and three starts back; consider for the exotics at a price.
Race 10
(6) WHISKEY TAX may have found a field he can beat here to take his first win in two seasons. I'll give him the nod in a race where I don't have a solid opinion. (2) STAN THE MAN should get an aggressive steer here and he's in the mix in this field. (7) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY has taken the overland route the past two starts and finished with trot. He's another who can take this with a trip. (9) DOTTIE is reliable to use underneath from any post it seems. (10) CLOUD NINE HANOVER drops and is in with a shot, but it will likely be hard to work out the right trip from out there.
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