Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 9/10 Analysis
Best Bet: FREYA SEELSTER (8th)
Spot Play: NEEDLECREST (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 4,6,7/1,2,6/4,5,8/1,7/6,9,10 = $32.40
EARLY PICK 4: 1,7/6,9,10/1,5,7/2,8 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 5,6/3,6/1,3/1,3,5,6,9 = $40
MEET STATS: 320 - 984 / $1,845.80 BEST BETS: 54 - 88 / $188.70
SPOT PLAYS: 30 - 86 / $173.80
Race 1
(6) JAMMIN JACK has the best lines on the page, he just needs to avoid breaking this time. Notice he was 1/2 odds vs. similar in that Rideau race. (7) DELCREST HOLIDAY has been consistent all year and he fits well here; using. (4) MISTER MAGIC comes off a sharp effort in Grassroots action and he's the third one that I'll use to kick off this Pick 5. (3) DAYLON PHANTOM has shown some flashes of ability and he has a strong overall record this year. He should hit the ticket here.
Race 2
(1) NEEDLECREST paced a sub-54 second back 1/2 in his first start off the claim last week and the short field should help here; top call. (6) LISVINNIE is having a banner year with 10 wins and 20 in-the-money finishes in 28 starts. He's the one to knock off again. (2) OK ICEMAN is on the upswing and the Fellows barn can move one up off the claim; using. (5) CHARMBO ORBIT is another who has compiled a good record who should at least hit the ticket here.
Race 3
(8) LEVITATION left hard last week, but he was immediately pushed 5-wide and he had to take back. He should be able to get a spot near the front leaving the gate here which would make a big difference. (4) T BARR hinted at a return to form with a middle move last week and he's in with a good chance here. (5) SICARIO should be a big speed threat here. Last time he raced in Grassroots company, he jogged. (9) SAY YOU DO is consistent and a good longshot to use underneath in this spot.
Race 4
(7) RED JOHN made a 3-wide bid on the final turn last week then stalled. He takes another class drop here and he should be tough vs. these. (1) WILLIE JOE HILL was bet like he was the best last week and he converted with a big mile. I'll use him off that effort. (3) WEATHERLY figures to rally late again for a piece of this. (4) MR MACH JIMMY raced well in this class last week and he's another that I would consider using underneath.
Race 5
(10) TREASURED TEE was outstanding in this class last time and he shattered his previous lifetime-best mark; call to repeat. (6) VOTE FOR PEDRO closed into a fast final 1/4 and he should be the main danger to the choice. (9) WHAT CHAPTER had no chance racing from the 11-hole in Grand Circuit company. This is an easier field and he merits a look here. (7) VEYRON appears to be in a spot where he'll take another small share.
Race 6
(5) FREE EXCHANGE has turned up her game recently and she stands a good chance to double up here. (1) THAT'S INCREDIBLE had too long a trip last time which means she will likely get overlooked here. I'll use her as a possible value play in the Pick 4. (7) LADY DRIVER was a determined winner at Clinton and she's not out of this. (2) HARD EIGHT should be able to work out a trip near the front and stick for a slice.
Race 7
(2) SPORTS JACKET went too fast, too early last time. I look for him to trip out this time and make amends. (8) ROUSSEAU adds Lasix here and he has finished every mile under 28 seconds as it is. Does the medication put him over the top this time? (10) CASSIUS faces what should be easier here and he's in with a shot despite his post. (1) SHADOW OF A DAUT has some hints of ability. He could crack the exotics at a price in this spot.
Race 8
(5) FREYA SEELSTER looks good to extend her win streak to three in this spot; top call. (4) LYONS JAVELIN gets a notable barn change here which might wake her up. (7) LOVES DELIGHT has finished in the exacta in 5 of 7 starts and she should be competitive in this spot, too. (2) KARANS CHOICE is always around the money and she could better this placing with a decent trip.
Race 9
(5) GRANTMEAWISH lands in a good spot to take his third win of the season and I expect an aggressive try here. (6) BURN OUT HANOVER beat older foes last time at Grand River and he should be right there again here. (7) GERARDO continues to get hammered at the windows, but he has 2 wins in 29 tries. I'll play to beat him again here. (3) TIGERS WAY is another one who is likely to take only a smaller share.
Race 10
(3) TURNCOAT was narrowly-beaten by a filly who came back to win again and she should be tough in this spot. (6) CLEARLY BETTER has faced tougher most of the year and she should be respected in this spot. (1) SOFT WIND HANOVER is in decent form now, but more likely to fight for a smaller share here. (5) TWIN B FRIENDLY has 4 exacta finishes in her last 5 starts and while these appear to be tougher, she isn't without a chance.
Race 11
(3) THINK AGAIN moves into a barn that is potent with new acquisitions and I'll play him on that angle here in a race that has several possibilities. (1) CLASSIC PRO on his best day would destroy these, bit it's hard to say how close he is to coming up with that kind of effort. (7) BRICKMAN and (6) WALTER MITTY are two others that race out of new barns that are worth a loom for the exotics.
Race 12
(5) TOXICITY raced decently in this condition last time. I'll give him a slight nod in a race that seems wide-open. (6) LEAFS AND WINGS ships in with very good form and he adds Lasix. He's won here in the past; watch for him late. (9) BUCKEROO is another shipper who has won on this circuit previously and Saftic drove him on those occasions. I'll use him as a price possibility. (1) GIVE EM HECK has a better chance to share moving inside here. (3) MCDAVE went to Kawartha to qualify for this race and he isn't out of this. This is a Pick 4 spread race for me.
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