Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 8/6 Analysis
Best Bet: SOUTHWIND TESLA (2nd)
Spot Play: BLACK CANVAS (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5,7/1/2,3/5,7,8/5,8,9,10 = $9.60
EARLY PICK 4: 5,7,8/5,8,9/1,3,5/2,5 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,5/2,6/1,6,8/2,3,5,8 = $48
MEET STATS: 238 - 713 / $1,417.40 BEST BETS: 37 - 64 / $130.60
SPOT PLAYS: 23 - 61 / $142.10
Race 1
(5) SUPERLATIVE has lived up to her name in her past four starts and she looks good to continue her win streak in this spot. (7) STORMONT CHARLOTTE can be a big speed threat if she stays flat here, but, that seems to be about a 50/50 proposition at this time. (9) HOPES SOLO is another with gait issues that could be right there if she stays flat the entire mile. This is a tricky race to kick off the Pick 5. (6) LADYS INTUITION came from what looked like an impossible spot to win when the leader slowed to a walk halfway down the lane. She should close for a piece of this.
Race 2
(1) SOUTHWIND TESLA got away with a soft opening 1/2 last week which made her impossible to catch, but, she comes right back in the same class and doesn't need an easy trip to beat these; call to repeat. (6) JAKE has been mostly disappointing so far this year, but he adds Lasix here which may help turn things around. (7) ILLUSIONEESTA has never come close to the speed the choice showed in her most recent start and she will likely be closing from last for a smaller share here. (5) HEAD TURNING JAG is another who will be coming on late to round out the Tri or Super most likely.
Race 3
(3) BLANK CANVAS was very impressive last time despite having missed close to three weeks action. He'll need a good result here after missing the first leg of the series last week, and he is likely to get it; top call. (2) U S CAPTAIN was put in an impossible spot last week and had to try to pass five horses in a 26 3/5 final quarter which was mission impossible. I'm sure McNair will put him in the race here. (5) THISISHOWWEDOIT had an eventful trip last time, but that was a good effort and he can take a slice here. (4) TYGA HANOVER should sit a good trip and stick around to fill one of the lower exotic slots.
Race 4
I'll side with (5) REIKI here, strictly off the Auciello claim. (7) JENKINS CREEK stepped up off the Johnson claim and produced a big move around the last turn to open up and went on to win. He is the obvious threat right back. (8) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ showed big improvement last time, now he picks up the barn's main driver; using. (1) ROCKIN RONNIE steps up off a nice win, but some of these should prove to be much tougher; small share predicted.
Race 5
Tough race with several possibilities. I'll side with (5) STORMONT KATE who may have got herself straightened out with a big win at Grand River. Her class and speed certainly play well here if she is right. (9) PARKHILL NONSTOP has been solid for several starts now and he never gets bet. He should be a bomb here, but he's not impossible. (8) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY has turned it around with Henry driving and he is another who is clearly in the mix here as is (10) MIGHTY NICKY, who was motoring late last time and may be recapturing good form now.
Race 6
(1) GRACEFUL - a $50K Lexington sale buy - wouldn't need to improve much on her two solid qualifiers to be competitive here at first asking. (5) BLUE RIBBON GAL inherited a win last week when the big chalk jumped it off in the lane when she had the race wrapped up. Still, this isn't a tough spot and her good early speed is a plus. (3) HERBS JOURNEY will justifiably take some play at the windows dropping out of Gold company and he should be right there vs. these. (2) ROSE RUN UNCLEBUCK shows a good late quarter in his debut and he's another who can show sharp improvement in this spot; using underneath.
Race 7
(5) CRUSHER Q had a decent debut effort now moves from the worst post to one of the best starting slots; top call. (2) DECEPTION SEELSTER has some sneaky good form and if he gets put into this race earlier than he has been, he could upset. (6) TWIN B FEARLESS sprinted well in the final 1/4 last week and he could come on late and hit the ticket here. (1) COOL HAND LUCAN raced a bit better last time in a strangely-run race where the back 1/2 was three seconds faster than the opening fraction. He can make it onto the ticket here.
Race 8
(6) MACS POWER tried the impossible last week, moving first up into a 54-flat back 1/2. He can rebound here as the likely second choice. (2) CAPTAIN NASH stole a 1:00 2/5 middle 1/2 but couldn't close the deal. He's the main danger but may find it tough to hold off the choice. (1) TWIN B JAYS and (3) PLANET HANOVER are two good ones to use underneath in Tri and Super bets.
Race 9
(1) RAGING FINGERS was passed by only a deep closer that flew home last week. A repeat of his effort from that race would give him a good chance here. (6) SHIPPEN OUT is hard to overlook here racing off the Shepherd claim; using. (8) SINGHAMPTON KENNY gets a driver upgrade to Henry here which makes him dangerous at a price. (3) J K COWBOY is worth a look on the barn change alone.
Race 10
(8) BUZZ takes a big drop and he'll be tough to beat here if he stays flat. (3) EXEMPLAR also drops into a more likely spot and his good early speed should land him in a prime spot early; using. (5) ST JAMES GATE has hit his best stride lately and he is a dangerous closer in this spot. (2) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD is another who has recaptured good form who should be in the hunt here. (6) CRESURREY is one who can leave, get a spot near the front then hang around for a share.
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