Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 8/5 Analysis

Meet Stats – 159 – 485 / 815.30 (-$154.70)
Best Bets – 26 - 46 / $75.10 (-$14.60)
Spot Plays – 10 – 44 / $48.50 (- $39.50)
Best Bet – TALL DARK STRANGER - (5TH)
Spot Play – STORMONT CHARLOTTE - (3RD)
Pick 5 – 2,7/4,5,6/4,5,7/3,4/6 = $7.20
Early Pick 4 – 3,4/6/2,3,4,5,7/4,5,9,10 = $40
Late Pick 4 – 4,5,9,10/6/2,4,7/1,4,9,10 = $48
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $18,000 to $25,000 - GTD $50K Pick 5
(7) RACEMUP dodges the streaking P L Idaho here and he should be able to take care of these if he gets a reasonable trip., (2) STOLEN ART will take play dropping in for a tag and there is a good chance he'll get claimed so expect Roy to blast early. (5) FAMILY SPORTS should get better position early in this race and that gives him a chance to do well. (3) JIMMY BE GOOD should be rallying late for a small share as he often does.
Race 2 – NW 5 (F&M7) or $75,000 LT
Interesting race here with some sires stakes stars seemingly holding the power., (4) BRIGHT EYES M has been hottest recently and if her form holds here, she should beat these. (6) ALL WRAPPED UP beat some good colts last time and when he is behaving, he can be very good; using. (5) HAVEONEFORME is having an excellent year and she can't be tossed in a race that will come down to trip and intent. (1) BLONDE MAGIC can sneak into the Tri or Super here off a following trip.
Race 3 – NW $6,000 L5 of $13,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $25,000
(4) STORMONT CHARLOTTE had a couple of starts back vs. better and she fits this class well. Her best race beats these. (7) HOCKEY HANOVER has been disappointing since shipping to Mohawk Park but he faced much better last time and a wake up should be coming here; using. (5) BLAZING TRAIL could pass all of these in the final 1/4 if trip and pace work out for him; beware. (1) MUSICAL SPELL usually contends for a placing when racing at these levels. I'll use him on the bottom here.
Race 4 – Ontario Sired 2YO NW $10,000 LT - GTD $50K Pick 4
(3) MAYHEM HANOVER faced the best company in his last start and he just missed a check. His race two starts back sticks out and this should be graduation night for him. (4) ROCKIN ROLL BEACH is likely to provide a challenge if he stays flat this time based on a couple of his qualifying miles. (8) NIGHT WATCHMEN and (9) WILSONS VINNER both figure as contenders but I'm not sure either can work out a winning trip from out there so I'll use them underneath.
Race 5 - Dream Maker - 2nd Leg - 2YO
(6) TALL DARK STRANGER impressed in his unveiling at the Meadowlands and he could be as low as 1 to 5 to double up here based on the result and ensuing publicity, but he looks the part. (7) NO LOU ZING looks obviously fast enough to compete immediately at a high level, but his stablemate - the choice - may present a tall order at first asking for this colt. (3) EXAMINER HANOVER was very good last time but he steps into deeper waters here; small share predicted. (12) CAPTAIN KIRK would be rated higher if he had his nose on the gate to start the race.
Race 6 - NW $10,500 L5 or $24,000 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000
(3) SORTIE was apparently no secret last time, winning easily at 85 cents to the dollar when adding trotting hopples. She faces tougher here, but she may be up to it with the new equipment making a difference for her. (2) BUZZ draws back inside where he may be able to work out a much better trip close to the front here; using. (7) DREAM TOGETHER is obviously one of the best in here on talent and class, but she hasn't really got untracked this season; your call. (4) ALARM DETECTOR has seen better days but his last effort indicates improving form and he's not out of this.
Race 7 - NW $15,000 L5 or $31,000 LT or $120,000 LT AE: Ontario Sired 3YO
(5) HEMI SEELSTER would be very tough here if he decides to trot the whole way this time. (4) ELYSIUM LINDY has some miles down south that interest me; using. (9) DREAM NATION and (10) SOUTHWIND AVENGER are both obviously capable, but in between Gold starts they may both sit back early and make a charge late to take shares.
Race 8 - CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $84,000 LT
(6) STELIOS should be very tough here racing in a conditioned claiming handicap; top call. (3) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL should get a good trip here, possibly in the choice's pocket; using. (4) L WEATHER B is the kind that will sit a trip and try to pounce late. I prefer using him underneath here. (7) OFFICIALY CREEK moves over from Kawartha where he was doing well in conditioned races. He should get a piece of this.
Race 9 - NW $25,000 L5 or $150,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(7) TREASURED TEE has moved up since changing barns following a private purchase and he looks strong here. (2) DUNBAR HALL is a Preferred horse when he brings his best but his gait issues keep popping up periodically. Take a look at him on the track before you plunge. (4) ROYAL WITCH is in very good for and she's not out of this. (1) B YOYO steps back up off a predictable win vs. much easier. I'll use him underneath here.
Race 10 - Ontario Sired 2YO Fillies NW $10,000
Interesting finale with plenty of live chances. I'll try (9) ISLA SEELSTER on top on the Steacy barn angle. (10) P L NOTORIOUS is in with a decent shot despite drawing poorly and post will help the price. (4) REGIL ELECTRON showed predictable improvement for trainer Brethour last time and he's not out of this. (1) MACH MY KISS should last longer vs. these; another that's hard to toss. (3) TRIZZLE TRAZZLE lost all hope at the start last time; consider for the exotics at a price.