Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 8/27 Analysis
Best Bet: SINGHAMPTON KENNY (3rd)
Spot Play: SAGEBRUSH SID (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,2,8/3,4,6,7/7/1,3,6/2,5,6,7 = $28.80
EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,6/2,5,6,7/7/1,5,7,9 = $48
LATE PICK 4: 1,5,7,9/5,7/2,4/3,7 = $32
MEET STATS: 284 - 870 / $1,653.00 BEST BETS: 48 - 79 / $165.00
SPOT PLAYS: 27 - 76 / $153.40
Race 1
(2) WELL DID is racing well for trainer Weller now and he should be a good price in the opener. I'll go price shopping and land here. (6) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ was very live last week and he could be sitting on a win now with the right trip; using. (8) NEEDLECREST must be considered off the Johnson claim, even starting from out there. (1) CHEYENNE FORD parlayed a perfect trip into an upset score last week, but I don't see him landing in the pocket here, so a smaller share is likely.
Race 2
(3) HERBS JOURNEY had a brutal trip last time and understandably backed up. This isn't a tough spot and he could pop here at a decent price. (4) ROSE RUN UNCLEBUCK was in contention all the way last time and he may go chalk off that line. I'll use him in the Pick 5 but wouldn't take a short win price on any of these. (7) ARCANUM was motoring late last time and he should be in contention here if he stays flat. (6) LARIAT SEELSTER raced well from the 10-hole and he is another who can win this with the right trip.
Race 3
(7) SINGHAMPTON KENNY was buried for most of the mile last week and he had no shot of getting more than a small share. Dropping back down a level he should show what he can do here. (2) LIGHT FOOT RD comes off an improved effort, but he was well-beaten by the tripped-out winner. He can contend here. (1) BRICKMAN fits here and he should take at least a slice racing in this field. (5) ONE WARAWEE won for the first time in two seasons last time at Grand River and his improving form could see him hit the ticket.
Race 4
(1) SAGEBRUSH SID won here five starts back then raced over his head and got some bad posts and poor trips. He has a good shot here. (6) COOL ROCK always fits in these classes, but often is a victim of trip and pace due to the way he is raced. Perhaps McClure will leave with him this time. Either way, he's a contender. (3) AVALANCHE HANOVER is only 1 for 17 this year, but he got closer last time, and this isn't the toughest spot; using. (2) HIGHLANDBEACHYCOVE should be a speed threat here, but he probably only lasts for another minor award.
Race 5
(5) FLASH A SMILE's race two back would probably be good enough to beat these. She gets my nod over (6) ARIELLE HANOVER, who was a decent 4th here Thursday night and now lands in a spot that looks easier. (7) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH was 5th vs. much better and she paced home well. She will rightfully take plenty of action. (2) SPORT JET RAY can improve racing in this field and she's a long bomber to consider for the exotics.
Race 6
(7) TIKI TAKA goes for a sharp barn off the claim and his mile last week was outstanding; call to repeat. (2) WARAWEE PROTON is capable of improving sharply on the barn change here; using. (1) MOST WANTED LINDY was 2nd to the choice but he had a much easier trip; smaller share predicted. (5) AVUNCULAR will likely be the first leader, then stick around and make the ticket.
Race 7
(1) ZEUS LIGHTNING has had a good season racing when he is classed correctly, and he stays in the same class where he has made hay; call to repeat. (7) MANOFMANYIMAGES was a good 2nd to a classy mare last time and he should be a main contender here, too. (5) WINNING LYRIC can win this if everything falls his way, but he often needs a setup. (9) CABERTOSS gets McNair here and he could get him rolling earlier; beware.
Race 8
(5) SHOE SHINE looks best here, he just needs to work out a winning trip in a race with a small margin of error. (7) JACK RACKHAM is winless on the season, but he faces easier here and could do vs. these. (2) CABLE BEACH A really had no excuse last week and he may go chalk again here. I'll play to beat him. (6) DARCEE N hasn't won in 47 starts and it seems like that streak will continue here, but he should close late for a piece.
Race 9
(4) VOTE FOR PEDRO gets Roy back here and note he won with him two starts back. I'll side with him as the likely second choice. (2) VEYRON will get bet off his last, but he is also one of the best in here; using. (6) MR HOUDINI gets McNair back and they raced well together two starts back. They can contend here. (5) ALEXUS EH has seen better days it seems, but she can rebound is she stays flat.
Race 10
(3) CALVIN K performed well in a fast race last time and a repeat of that mile should get the job done vs. these. (7) KEYSTONE CHARLES moves up off a tremendous effort and has the look of a contender here. (8) REBEL VOYAGER fits okay here, and he often shares; using underneath. (2) TOXICITY won as chalk last time at Georgian but some of these are tougher; smaller share predicted. (10) TOOT TOOT N would be rated higher with a better post, but he may be able to sneak onto on of the exotic tickets.
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