Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 8/20 Analysis
Best Bet: ONLY TAKE CASH (1st)
Spot Play: FREE EXCHANGE (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 8/4,6/10/3,7,8/4,5,7,9 = $4.80
EARLY PICK 4: 3,7,8/4,5,7,9/4,6,9/4 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 6/8/1,5,6,10/1,2,4,5,9 = $20
MEET STATS: 268 - 818 / $1,586.90 BEST BETS: 45 - 74 / $157.20
SPOT PLAYS: 26 - 71 / $150.60
Race 1
(8) ONLY TAKE CASH will likely make short work of these if she duplicates any of her past three miles. She looks like a free square to kick off the Pick 5. (5) BLUE RIBBON GAL is typically a threat with her good speed and she is the most likely benefactor if something goes awry for the choice. (4) REBELLIOUS LADY has improving form and she can hit the ticket here. (3) AT WILL is another who seems like a good option to use underneath.
Race 2
(6) WHIP N NEIGH NEIGH produced a good late kick last time, but she started her move too late. I expect McNair to get her in gear earlier this time. (4) GALARY GIRL held sway vs. the choice and she is likely the one to catch again here. (2) FRICK can race better than what she showed last time and perhaps returning quicker will help. (1) EZEE TIGUAN can start fast then hang around for a smaller share.
Race 3
(10) POWERFUL CHRIS lays over this group despite drawing widest and she should get back on track here. (9) ABERDEEN SEELSTER's race two back would make her a contender if she can reproduce it. (7) JUSTJENNYSLIBERTY looked like a winner last week until she started running in down the lane. She can share here, however. (3) BUCKINGHAM gets a better post and she is another who can sit a trip and take a smaller slice.
Race 4
(7) VINCENT VAN GO took all the money at the windows last week, but he couldn't repel a sharp rival late in the mile. A similar effort can get the job done. (3) INTENDED STYLE was okay late in the mile last week and he could pop here off that line, although his odds will plummet noticeably from last week's 62/1 price. (8) FACE OF WAR drops to the bottom and he wouldn't be a shock if he woke up in this spot. (9) REGIL TIGER tries hard every week, but post position frequently makes it tough on him.
Race 5
(5) THAT'S INCREDIBLE improved sharply last time when 2nd to a sharp rival and she looks best off that mile. (4) CINDERELLA DELIGHT is another who turned her game up that could pop in this spot. (7) SAULSBROOK JESSIE closes fast every week; she just needs to be put in position to challenge. (9) SPORTS FLIX closed nicely to win one of these races at Grand River. She's not out of this.
Race 6
(4) FREE EXCHANGE faced much tougher since breaking her maiden at first asking from post 10. This is a good spot for her to take her second win. (9) TWIN B TIPSTER gained a lot of ground in the back half last week, but she was too far out of it to make any impact on the leaders. If she gets sent here, she has a shot. (6) FREYA SEELSTER couldn't close when the pace accelerated late, but this spot should be easier and she's not out of it. (2) PAZZA HANOVER was beaten by two promising fillies last time. She could better this placing with a good trip.
Race 7
(4) BUZZ takes a class plunge to meet a field that he should beat; top call. (3) LITTLE RED CHEV is going great right now and she shouldn't be discounted here despite moving up the class ladder. (6) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD will no doubt be blasting early, and in this field, he can stick around to make the ticket. (9) WINNING LYRIC will be winding up from far back, but he might crash the exotics at a price here if the early pace is fast as expected.
Race 8
(6) SPRINGBRIDGE SASSY went down as the big chalk last week, overbet off her stellar final 1/4 in her debut. She can bounce back here and she'll be odds-on again. (8) BETTER TO DREAM can hit the board at a price if she minds her manners this time. (7) FLASH A SMILE has two good starts in a row and she should be prominent early and stay for a share. (3) KARANS CHOICE faces easier here and she should rebound with a better effort.
Race 9
(8) ZORGIWIJK SOPHIA is simply the fastest filly in here and she should make short work of these assuming she gets put into play off the gate. (2) DALLIANCE SEELSTER's race two back could make her tough here if she gets sent on a speed mission. (1) SENORITA BONITA seems likely to hit the board racing close here. (4) YAKOMOTION could break her string of not making the board if she stays flat this time.
Race 10
(5) LINNEA gets a big driver switch to Roy here and I'll play her on that angle in a race where I don't love anything. (10) DEB drops out of the Whenyouwishuponastar series and she looks best on paper, but it's hard to say what kind of a trip she'll get from out there. (1) RUE HANOVER raced well in two straight and she's in with a chance vs. these and starting from the inside. (6) LOVES DELIGHT faced tough ones twice in both Ontario starts. This is probably a better spot for her.
Race 11
(4) WALTZING WITH TINA finished with interest last time and now she picks up Roy to drive; top call. (5) SOFT WIND HANOVER couldn't fend off a challenge in a quick third 1/4 last time, but she could go much farther against these; using. (2) TOPSILL BEACH is in great form and hard to discount in this field. (1) ERIKAS SHADOW can take a slice here starting from the inside. (9) ZEYNEP has been facing tougher fillies and she is a bomb that's in with a chance here.
[DRF HARNESS NEWSLETTER: Sign Up for the FREE DRF Harness Newsletter. Fresh content and insights delivered each Thursday.]