Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 8/12 Analysis

Best Bet – FORBIDDEN TRADE (8TH)
Spot Play – MISS LA – (5TH)
Meet Stats – 173 – 526 / 884.40 (-$166.60)
Best Bets – 29 – 50 / $88.70 (-$11.30)
Spot Plays – 11 – 49 / $52.50 (- $45.50)
Pick 5 – 1,2,3,6/3/3,5/5,6/9 = $3.20
Early Pick 4 – 5,6/9/2/2,7,8 = $6
Late Pick 4 – 2,7,8/1/2,6,7/3/ = $9
Race 1 – Ontario Sired 3YO Grassroots Starters in 2019 NW $10,200 L5 – **$50K GTD Pick 5**
(1) GRAND POOBAH had no chance from the 10-hole vs. a colt who came back to repeat Thursday night. He should improve sharply here. (6) QUAN BLUE CHIP was getting closer in his last two starts and these are easier; using. (2) BETTER MOONON OVER should get a good trip racing on or near the lead here and he is another possibility in a tough race to kick off the Pick 5. (3) SPORTS TEEN broke last time but faced some salty older foes in his two previous starts. He is somewhat of a hidden contender here – if he stays flat.
Race 2 – OSS Gold 3YO Colts and Geldings
(3) SOUTHWIND AVENGER had a perfect prep for this last week racing vs. older conditioned foes. He should handle these. (2) KNIGHT ANGEL has really come into his own in the past month and he could provide a challenge to the choice here. (5) WHILE YOUR UP tuned up for this with a nice win on Thursday here; using underneath. (7) NORTHERN CAVALIER can close for a small slice.
Race 3 – Dream Maker Final – 2YO
(5) CAPTAIN NEMO was picked off by his tripped-out stablemate last time but he is still the one to beat in this stakes final and I’ll give him the nod over (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER who has done nothing wrong so far and should provide a good battle, (1) CAPT MIDNIGHT flew late to beat the choice but he isn’t likely to get the same trip here. I’ll use him underneath. (4) CAPTAIN KIRK – one of four Alagna trainees in the race – should be coming on late to take a share.
Race 4 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $78,500 LT – **GTD $50K Pick 4**
(6) OFFICIALLY CREEK showed good speed both early and late when heavily-bet coming in from Kawartha Downs last week and he can repeat facing similar here. (5) EASY FLYER comes in from Georgian on a big roll and he’s on my multi-race tickets. (2) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL is right there every week but another smaller share seems likely in this spot. (7) STELIOS drifted in the lane Monday night and the choice easily went by. He may be tailing off a bit.
Race 5 – Ontario Sired 2YO Fillies NW 1 or $10,000 LT
(9) MISS L A – full-sister to $1.7 million earning Jugette winner LA Delight - is supposed to beat these at first asking. It’s just that simple. (8) FIORELLA has shown good closing power in her races and she could add some value to the Exacta here. (3) DUOSTEP HANOVER can leave and sit a good trip here; using on the bottom of Tris and Supers. (4) LOOK N FABULOUS comes back quicker here so she may improve.
Race 6 – NW $18,000 L5 or $31,000 L10 or $125,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $40,000
(2) P L JILL tried the best older mares on the continent last Saturday now she faces a field that she should beat; top call at a short price. (4) FREE WILLY HANOVER can trip out and re-emerge for a good share here. (7) SORTIE rode a perfect drive and an ideal trip to a second straight win last week. The waters get deeper here, and I’ll use him on the bottom only. (6) ROYAL WITCH is in solid form but she’s another that figures to take a smaller share this time.
Race 7 – NW $6,000 L5 or $16,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $20,000
(8) BUZZ sprinted a quick third 1/4 last week and he was under siege all the way after making the front. These are easier and he may blast and go right down the road this time. (2) JANGONE is kind of hit-and-miss but she fits well in this class and she should be heard from. (7) WHISKEY TAX has taken his only two wins of the year in his last three starts and he could be an interesting Pick 4 price option here. (5) ESQUIRE has been racing well out of town, but these are much tougher; for the bottom of Supers only.
Race 8 – OSS Gold 3YO Colts and Geldings
(1) FORBIDDEN TRADE just beat the best on the continent in the Hambletonian. Him being 1 to 9 and likely unbeatable here makes the late Pick 4 a Pick 3. (3) ALL WRAPPED UP has been a new horse with trotting hopples added and he can complete this Exacta. (5) ONLY FOR JUSTICE had a good tightener for this last week; using underneath. (7) COOL CLIFFORD has been arcing great, but he takes a big step up here. He may be able to sneak onto the Super.
Race 9 – 5YO and Younger NW 3 or $50,000 LT AE: Grassroots Starters NW $12,000 L5
(2) FAST N FIRST comes off a solid Grassroots try, and he should be able to control the pace vs. these; top call. (7) CLIFFHANGER has been very good when he stays flat. I’ll use him in this Pick 4 along with (6) HERVEY HANOVER who comes in off a lifetime-best score. (3) OK KUDO races best in actual Grassroots races, typically, but he is obviously capable vs. these.
Race 10 – NW $12,000 (F&M $16,500) L5 or $27,500 L10 AE: OPT CLM $30,000 0r NW $6,500 L4
(3) LINDY THE GREAT sticks out here on class and this Pick 4 could pay tiny if both he and Forbidden Trade win, as expected. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO fits this class well and he should be closing for a good share. (9) ON A SUNNY DAY also fits well but from out there I see her closing for a slice. (7) KAMERAN HANOVER raced well last time; consider for exotics. (2) BAUTISTA can sit a trip here and sneak onto the Super or High-5 at a price.