Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 7/30 Analysis
Best Bet: CAPTAIN AHAB (3rd)
Spot Play: BRICKMAN (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,7/2,4,6/1/2,3,8/2,5,6 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 238/256/25/26 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 26/4568/57/578 = $48
MEET STATS: 229 - 670 / $1,379.80 BEST BETS: 36 - 61 / $128.20
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 58 / $138.00
Race 1
(1) SPLURGE ON ME could get the jump on likely favorite (7) CAMBRIDGE KATE here as they race in between Grassroots engagements. Slight nod to the former while using both in the Pick 5. (4) ORDER MATTIE is in solid form and she should get a piece of this while racing close to the front. (2) REBELLIOUS LADY made a decent first up move in her debut and she can contend in this dash.
Race 2
(2) TWOFOURROADIE faces easier here and he will likely still be a square price while having a good shot vs. these; top call. (6) SOUTHWIND TESLA should be right there vs. this group but she may also get overbet. I'll use her in the Pick 5 but hope to beat her just the same. (4) PARKHILL NONSTOP is another great Pat Hudon reclamation project who has put it all together and he is dangerous here. (5) STORMONT VENTNOR will likely get a conservative steer racing in between stakes engagements, but he can still share.
Race 3
(1) CAPTAIN AHAB has been impressive at The Meadowlands and he takes beating here at a very short price. (4) MACS POWER motored home to take his debut and he looks next best. (3) SHIPSHAPE gained ground in a rapid last 1/4 last time out and he should hit the ticket here. (5) SAUBLE PLAY can close late for a small slice.
Race 4
(2) RAGING FINGERS - a 73-time winner - lands in a spot where he may be able to control the pace and get a breather this time; top call. (8) REGIL TIGER is back in good form and he should win one soon; using. (3) WALTZKING HANOVER was a winner last time he raced in this class when claimed. He figures here on the drop. (6) LIGHT FOOT RD is coming around and he can close for another slice here.
Race 5
(2) BRICKMAN raced well off the claim last time and he lands in a spot where there should be a contested early pace to chase. He gets the nod. (5) A BOY NAMED SUUZZ drops back into a claimer and he will no doubt be put into the race by Roy while racing for a tag; using. (6) JENKINS CREEK was used up early when claimed last time but he moves from the worst post to the best starting slot here which puts him in the mix. (3) NEEDLECREST should be closing late and he isn't impossible here despite having won only once in the past 35 starts.
Race 6
(2) RENEGADE MAGIC moves inside and gets plenty of outside speed to chase here; slight nod. (5) MEGO MOSS was close at this level three starts back with Roy driving. He may try to stack the outside speed horses up behind him at the start and if he can, he could wire these. (1) ADVERSITY is another noted closer who will be coming late here; using. (8) WILLYORWONTHE gave it a big try last time but was nailed late and if he blasts here he can stick around for another share but he could also help set things up for the choice.
Race 7
(2) CASH FOR GOLD has two decent starts following a five-month absence. He could be ready to pop now and the slight class drop won't hurt. (7) KAMERAN HANOVER got hammered at the windows last week and he raced well. He should be a big factor here. (1) SLIP INTO GLIDE is right in the thick of it every week and he should make the ticket here, at a minimum. (4) MARQUIS VOLO's race two back was very good and he merits a look for Tri and Super bets.
Race 8
Tough race with many possibilities. I'll side with (6) ALLERAGE STARGAZER who won at a huge price last time she was in this class following a Grassroots race. (4) HOPES SOLO was good at Georgian Downs but looking at all those breaks on her card is obviously concerning. (5) EZEE TIGUAN should be a speed threat here as he isn't likely to get hung the mile on this track; using. (8) GALARY GIRL is another that I'll use in the late Pick 4. If she leaves hard, she has a shot in here.
Race 9
(5) U S CAPTAIN gets away from stablemate Captain Ahab here and he can boss these. (7) BEST IN SHOW was decent in his debut when facing three very good colts. He could jump up and win this with that race under his belt. (1) DANCIN LOU and (3) CAPTAIN NASH exit the same dash where they were 1-2 but they will need more here to take down the choice.
Race 10
(5) THE FIRST STEP raced erratically for most of the mile last week, but down the lane he was absolutely flying. An equipment change could be telling for this gelding. (9) FACE THE CHALLENGE can leave a bit and finish well which puts him in the picture here and he could be an overlay starting from out there. (7) COOL HAND LUCAN likely has more in the tank than what we have seen so far and he should be closer facing this field. (3) LIFE IS BETTER is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris, Supers and High-5s. (1) TWIN B FEARLESS is another who can come on late for a smaller slice.
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