Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 7/22 Analysis

Meet Stats - 119 – 383 / $613.40 (-$152.60)
Best Bets – 18– 35/ $47.60 (-$19.50)
Spot Plays – 7 – 35/ $33.60 (- $36.40)
Best Bet – FORBIDDEN TRADE - (8TH)
Spot Play – BUZZ - (6TH)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 – 4,5,6/2,8/5,6/5,6,7/4,7,10 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 5,6,7/4,7,10/3,5/4,9 = $36
Late Pick 4 – 4,9/5/1,3/5,9
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $15K to $18K for NW $75K LT
(6) LEADER TONIGHT was relentless racing on the rim last week but was picked off late by a rival who got a much better trip. He gets a slight nod in a race that will likely be decided by trip again. (4) ZEN DA BALLYKEEL got clearance late and swung widest to get up on the line. He should be a threat again. (5) STELIOS is always dangerous with his speed but he gets used hard often which can make him vulnerable. (1) KINGOFBROKENHEARTS is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 2 – NW5 (F&M 7) or $83K LT
(2) TRIX AND STONES keeps firing sub-28 kickers and that last speed should play well here; top call. (8) TAX SAVINGS beat the choice on June 25th and she continues to race well. She should be a threat here. (5) PLAYED BY SWAN should get a good trip racing near the front here. He is another possibility. (6) CINDY LYNN always finishes third or fourth it seems. I’ll use her on the bottom here.
Race 3 – Preferred
It appears as though (6) TREASURED TEE was bought by driver Henry after his last start and he goes to top trainer Moreau’s barn for this jump to the Preferred. Coming off a lifetime-best 1:51 3/5 score, he may jump up and beat these. (5) RUN DIRECTOR had no luck in the Hambletonian Maturity but he was very good two starts back when beating a massive front-end bias. He is a must-use for me, (3) DUNBAR HALL seems to go in and out of form, but he is very good right now and he could win this with a trip. (2) EMOTICON HANOVER didn’t show much from an outer post last time. She is capable but I’m not sure how aggressively she will be driven with stakes engagements likely upcoming.
Race 4 – 2YO Fillies
(5) LIBSPEAK raced well in her debut but the winner was too tough. She gets the nod here. (7) MARTINIQUE BEACH is a full-sister to the very fast Melmerby Beach and she looks plenty fast enough to compete at first asking. (6) WANNASHAKEYOURTREE finished behind the choice in their debuts and she can contend for a share here. (8) CANARD HANOVER is worth a look for the exotics here off her breeding and qualifiers.
Race 5 – Ontario Sired 2YO NW $5,000 LT
(4) WIND BLOWN has had two tough trips in a row, but he finished fast in both starts and now this looks like a much better spot for him. He gets top call. (7) WILSONS VINNER closed nicely in his debut and this also looks like a good spot for him to make some noise. (10) BETTER TAKE IT closed mildly as the chalk last time. If Henry fires him off the gate at the start, he could be right there. (1) NEEDLESS TO SAY raced better last time and he is another who could do if provided with a good trip in this wide-open race.
Race 6 – NW $15K L5 or $29,500 L10 AE: NW $120K LT AE: 3YO
(3) BUZZ had a start back over the track now he takes a big drop; expect aggression. (5) ABSOLUT SEELSTER comes off a new life's mark and picks p white-hot driver Filion here. He's worth using in this Pick 4. (1) KAMERAN HANOVER is in solid form but I prefer to use him underneath again in this spot. (7) BIZET also just took a new life's mark, but he may not get the same golden trip here; using underneath.
Race 7 – CLM HDCP $8K to $12K
(9) SECTIONLINE ROCK faces much easier on the class drop here and if her can work out a decent trip from out there he'll be tough to beat. (4) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is always in the mix and he seems likeliest to upend the choice; using. (8) FLAHERTY is in solid form but these are much tougher than what he just beat in Sarnia; small share predicted. (5) REAL WICKED had a tough trip on the rim and hung in there at Grand River; consider using underneath.
Race 8 – NW $15K L5 or $29,500 L10 AE NW $120,000 LT AE: 3YO
(4) FORBIDDEN TRADE probbaly won't get the same golden trip he got on the front last week but he should beat these as a prep for the upcoming Hambletonian. (7) B YOYO is most likely to take down the choice considering the company he has been keeping recently. (5) KADABRA QUEEN can leave for position and stick around for a share. (3) SUPERLATIVE should be following on the inside most of the way here and she can sneak onto the Tri or Super.
Race 9 – NW $3K L5 or $9,200 L7
This race looks like it will boil down to (1) ROCKIN IN HEAVEN or (3) IMSPORTY both who face much easier here. Slight nod to the former who will likely look to control the race. (5) GHOST DANCE produced a huge effort in his Confederation Cup elimination then hasn't done much since. He's a hard one to gauge, but he's capable with his best race. (7) SIR GALAHAD is a good one to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers in this spot.
Race 10 – NW6000 in last 5
(9) ALEXUS EH was a powerful winner one class lower two starts back and this isn't a stellar NW $6K L5 group so she gets the nod. (5) HIGHLAND TOP HILL comes out of two fast miles but shows a vet scratch; your call. (2) MUSICAL SPELL is usually thereabouts in this class when he can sit a good trip and he should sit a nice following trip here; using underneath. (4) SETANTA and (10) JANGONE are two closers who can make it onto the High 5 ticket in this spot.