Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 7/16 Analysis
Best Bet: DREAM NATION (3rd)
Spot Play: PAPARAZZI HANOVER (8th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6,7,9/1,2,4,9/5/1,5,9/1,5,7 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 1,5,9/1,5,7/5,8,9/1,8 = $54
LATE PICK 4: 2,4,9/1,2,3/4,7/1,7,8 = $54
MEET STATS: 207 - 591 / $1,258.80 BEST BETS: 31 - 54 / $109.00
SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 51 / $125.20
Race 1
(7) JENKINS CREEK drops back to the claimed price for Auciello here and he could take this group all the way on the engine. (6) INTENDED STYLE woke up at a big price last week and trainer Johnson may have him figured out now; using. (9) SINGHAMPTON KENNY goes for Moreau off the claim here but draws the worst post. I'll use him in the Pick 5 but wouldn't take a short price for a win bet. (1) ISLAND ENERGETIC seems likely to take a smaller award here.
Race 2
(9) KNIGHT ANGEL - a $26K London Selected sale buy - showed good late pop in his only qualifier. I'll land here hoping the outer post boosts his price. (4) SCREAMING HAWK had good late trot in his second start and he has the look of a contender here. (2) RFLS LORD COMMAND is a 1/2-brother to 11-time winner Muscles Jared ($380K, 1:54 F.) who also has the look of a contender here; using. (1) LARIAT SEELSTER brought $54K at the London sale and he is yet another in with a shot in a race where it makes sense to price shop.
Race 3
(5) DREAM NATION lived up to his even-money quote by delivering a professional win in his debut. He can double up here. (3) TYMAL TULLO is sent out by a stable that has been winning with everything the past couple of weeks and his two starts at Grand River give him a good foundation for his stakes debut; exacta factor. (6) BUDGET BUSTER is well-bred, and his June 29th qualifier was quite good; consider for exotics. (9) CT CONABRA has one impressive qualifier on his card and he could better this placing with a decent trip.
Race 4
(5) CHEYENNE FORD ships into Mohawk Park with sharp form, which gives him a decent chance vs. this field; slight nod. (9) REGIL TIGER is coming back to form. Don't be surprised if he blasts off the gate this time. (1) MACHAPELO has won two of three since changing barns. Don't underestimate him here. (10) ROCKABELLA may pass several of these late; use underneath.
Race 5
(5) THE CAPTAINS ANGEL ($47k Lexington) and (7) FIERY BEAUTY ($102 Lexington) are both by the same first-crop sire who is off to a decent start and this isn't the toughest spot to debut; slight nod to the former who has shown more early zip in her qualifiers. (1) TAKE ABIT OF LIFE is the only winner in the field and that should count for something; using. (2) HONEYITSONLYMONEY can build off a decent debut and take a share here.
Race 6
(8) SOUTHWIND AVENGER - a $77K Lexington buy - is a 1/2-brother to two winners from three that his dam has produced so far. He looks ready to come out swinging here. (5) RADICAL ROY was up against it in his debut, but he still trotted home in 28 2/5; using. (9) TITANIUM SEELSTER had a good qualifier on July 6th and his trainer/driver is typically aggressive from any post. He could pop at a price here. (2) BAIL OUT had a couple of decent qualifiers down south; consider for exotics.
Race 7
(8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO takes a big class drop here and he should beat these if he gets any kind of a trip. (1) ADVERSITY steps up off a solid win and he seems to fit well here, too. I'll use him in the Pick 4. (4) EXEMPLAR is getting closer and he could do with a better trip than he got last time. (3) MANOFMANYIMAGES is one that I'll use underneath in this spot.
Race 8
(4) PAPARAZZI HANOVER cleaned the carbon out of his engine last week, now he gets a much better post in a similar field; top call. (2) THINK ON IT fires fast final quarters every week. His sharp late speed should play better in this class. (9) GREAT TUNE drops another level after chasing the classy Nickle Bag last week. He isn't impossible in this spot. (3) MACH DEJA VU challenged the choice last time and paid the price. He can share here if he can work out a better trip.
Race 9
(2) JUMPSHOT was a solid debut winner and he can come right back and take an OSS Gold off that good debut effort. (1) MAGICAL WINNER K is by a top sire out of a dam that was a very good race mare and he can contend at first asking here. (3) COOL CLIFFORD finished fast in his debut and he isn't out of this. If he can enter contention earlier, he has an upset chance. (6) TYMAL HOUDINI has been solid training leading up to this and he's in with a shot to take a good share here.
Race 10
(7) TYMAL REIGN ships in with good form and there is plenty of early speed in this field to chase; slight nod in a wide-open affair. (4) LADY CATERINA chased a big class-dropper last time and she hung in there okay. She could trip out here, similar to her race two back when she was a winner. (6) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL takes a slice almost every week and she figures to hit the board here, too. (1) RENEGADE MAGIC's best race probably wins this, but it's hard to say which version of her will show up.
Race 11
(8) VINCENT VAN GO doesn't win often, but his race two back puts him right there with these. Hopefully Filion will choose to send him early. (7) GOTAMEETING was right there in this class last time in a quick race; using. (1) SIR GALAHAD has some class and if his race at Kawartha is a signal that he's returning to his best form, look out. He does attract Roy to drive. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER can provide a stout rally on his best day and he should be passing many of these in the back 1/2. (6) IM NOT BAD was decent in his Mohawk debut and he is one for use on the bottom of exotic bets here.
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