Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 5/27 Analysis
Best Bet: ODD BALL (9th)
Spot Play: DREAMFAIR TECATE (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,7,8/4,6,7/6,8/2,3,7/7 = $10.80
Early Pick 4 - 2,3,7/7/1,2,10/1,5,10 = $27
Late Pick 4 - 1,5,10/1,4/7/1,4,5,6,7 = $30
MEET STATS: 7-30 / $29.00 (-$31.00)
BEST BETS: 2 - 3 / $5.00 (-1.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 1 - 3 / $6.40 (+$0.40)
Race 1
(8) HEY LIVVY looked briefly like she might come on and register a huge upset last week, but the winner was too strong. Henry may send her right down the road. (1) SMART AS HILL is obviously a high-class horse, with a Breeders Crown elimination win showing on his card, but this race isn't the goal. He can win, but he likely gets a conservative steer first time out as a sophomore. (7) WHAT CHAPTER had a useful opener and he gets his regular driver back now; using. (5) GALLANT MAN was much the best, but he got set back for a pylon violation. This is the same class, but it appears that he is facing tougher. I'll play to beat him.
Race 2
I'll try class-dropper (6) MUSICAL SPELL in this amateur drivers race where anything likely goes. (7) NOBODYNOSJUSTICE has been racing well and his driver has six wins and the most drives of any in the race so far this year. Perhaps experience counts. (4) CAROLUZZO gets a much better starting slot here and he's in with an upset chance. (10) DONATO LANE has some inherent class and he gets local driver Britt Kennedy here, who has notched a couple of wins vs. non-amateurs already.
Race 3
(6) PHANTOM SEELSTER takes a massive class plunge here and if he is ever going to wake up, it's in this spot. (8) LONE WOLF TERROR will be coming like a freight train in the lane. The only question will be, is he close enough to pass them all? (7) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE should go much better in this spot; consider for the exotics. (5) JAYDENS PLACE should be good for another small share vs. these.
Race 4
(3) VANQUISH KRONOS took a break after his second start here where he was flat in the lane. He looks ready now; top call. (2) CATCH THE DREAM drops and moves inside, which makes him a logical contender. (7) R FIRST CLASS was in against some beasts in his qualifier and he did okay. I'll use him here going out for a trotting barn that has been hot. (9) ODDS ON AMETHYST is always capable, but he is also quirky and unpredictable; your call.
Race 5
(7) DREAMFAIR TECATE made a huge brush to the front in the second eighth of the race at Flamboro and he never looked back. This horse is as sharp as they come, and he could offer a decent price here; Spot Play. (2) PRINCE ADAIR should go better here leaving from a much improved post; exacta factor. (6) THE FIRST STEP was beaten by a colt that moved up to Gold company. He should factor here. (8) PRESTIGE SEELSTER was decent at Flamboro and he can crack the exotics at a price.
Race 6
(1) ROYAL ESTEEM comes back much quicker and moves inside, plus she gets top call vs. these coming off a sharp try after missing 3 1/2 weeks. (2) MERCEDES TALMA should be a big threat in this company if she stays trotting this time. (10) FINGALS WAVE must be considered off that razor-sharp May 20th qualifier; using despite the post. (4) KNIGHT ANGEL should be closer here exiting Gold company; using underneath.
Race 7
This race is a tale of three class-droppers and I'll take the one that draws best, (1) FREE WILLY HANOVER, on top. (5) B YOYO and (10) DUNBAR HALL are also quite capable at this level and I'll use all three in the Pick 4s because the outcome could simply come down to trip with these three. (4) MARQUIS VOLO has thrived under trainer Winnacott, but a smaller share may be his ceiling in this contest.
Race 8
(1) GAMBLINTERROR came up against a monster named Sportsline at Flamboro and there are none like that in here. He gets the nod over (4) NAGLE, who was a sharp second here on Thursday night. (3) ARCANE SEELSTER also faced a fast one last time and he got paced off his feet. He should hit the ticket here. (7) BUELLER was better in his second start and he can enter contention.
Race 9
(7) ODD BALL exploded with a new lifetime-best last week making his first start out of the Auciello barn. If he repeats that mile, his opponents here are in trouble. (5) MUSCLES FOR LIFE has been right there racing in Open company down south. He should fit well here. (3) WILD AND CRAZY GUY drops from the top level, but a renewed Odd Ball is no bargain here; smaller share predicted. (1) KAMERAN HANOVER can get a better trip here and close late for a slice.
Race 10
(7) AMERICAN SARA shifts to the Boyd barn here which is noteworthy, and I'll give her top call. (6) THE GIRLS OF IMAGE paced a huge mile on the engine last time while under pressure the whole way. She's too sharp to leave out. (4) PICKLES ON TOP does her best work when racing at this level, so I'll toss her in the late Pick 4. (5) NAUGHTY LADY B drops to the bottom here but she's no lock and she'll likely get overbet. I'll play to beat her. (1) SHES LIGHTS OUT has done some of her best racing at this track; don't think she can't compete here.