Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 5/20 Analysis
Best Bet: EMOTICON HANOVER (2nd)
Spot Play: CABERTROSS (6th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,3,7,10/3/4,5,6/5,6.7/2,5 = $14.40
Early Pick 4 - 5,6,7/2,5/1,2,8/1,9 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 1,9/7/3/1,2,8 = $6
MEET STATS: 328-1033 / $1,902.90 (-$160.80)
BEST BETS: 45 - 95 / $157.50 (-$32.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 22 - 95 / $168.40 (-$21.60)
Race 1
Tough race to kick off the Pick 5. I'll side with (1) ZIG ZAG who qualified well in the slop and raced against some tough ones last year. (10) ADINA is capable if she can stay flat and get put into the race. I'll use her at a price. (3) WITCHES N ANGELS was a Gold filly last year and she wouldn't have to improve much on her qualifier to compete here. (7) P L MOLLY had a decent opener and driver Waples has won a few races recently. She's the fourth filly that I'll use in the Pick 5.
Race 2
(3) EMOTICON HANOVER sticks out here but expect nothing higher than 1 to 5 for a price. (4) THE ERM had a good season debut effort and she can complete a small exacta here. (5) DREAM TOGETHER should go better with a race under her belt and she can close for a share. (2) PAT MATTERS looks next best in this short field.
Race 3
(6) PROTECT BLUE CHIP only needed to lay closer early last time to capitalize last week and from the best post here she can repeat that effort. (5) XELENE BAYAMA may be better stalking the pace and she could turn the tables with the right trip here. (4) LEAVING A LEGACY is right there every week in this class and she's another who can get the job done here with the right trip. (1) KIMS DESIRE has some things to like shipping in from London; using underneath.
Race 4
(5) Y C BROADWAY kicked home to just miss to a winner that was repeating, and he is sharp and dangerous here. (6) DONATO LANE had a decent tightener and Roy will likely put him into the race this time; using. (7) WHAT CHAPTER rarely misses the exacta when he stays flat, so I'll use him on multi-race tickets here. (8) ALEXUS EH returned in good form and she can take another share at a price here.
Race 5
(2) CLEARLY BETTER was a sharp winner in this class two starts back and she should appreciate the drop back in class; top call. (5) KYLIE SEELSTER was first up against unbeaten Sunny Dee which is like Mission Impossible right now. She too should like this company better. (7) KICKIN COWGIRL can close late to hit the Tri or Super ticket. (9) PREMIER CABERNET was ready to produce a strong effort in her 2019 debut but some of these should prove to be much tougher; small share predicted.
Race 6
I've cashed some big tickets on (8) CABERTOSS on previous occasions when he shipped in to Mohawk Park, so I'll take another swing here in a race where it's hard to love any of them. (1) SEVERUS HANOVER is an obvious contender if he can stay flat, but that's hard to predict. (2) CONSTANTINO fits decently here and he could trip out near the front; using. (6) POWER MOVE is a good one to use in the 3-4 slots in Tri and Super bets.
Race 7
(9) BLACKCHEDDAR was very impressive winning at first asking at Flamboro and I'll call her to repeat facing some suspect company here. (1) SUNSHINEATTHEBEACH keeps getting bet and keeps getting beat. Maybe tonight's the night? (10) SHESONEHOTWRITER comes off a solid effort and she could spice up the exotic payouts here. (7) SUGAR SHADOW can go forward off an even opener. I'll toss her on Tri and Super tickets.
Race 8
(7) MUSICAL RHYTHM got a forced vacation when no Preferreds were carded, but he has been off less than three weeks and he should be formidable at odds-on here. (4) B YOYO is sharp, and he should be able to work out the right trip to complete this exacta. (6) DUNBAR HALL has been off a week longer than the choice so I'm not sure if there will be any rust apparent on this gelding. (5) P L JILL broke in the slop, squandering a great rip. She can be quirky or brilliant and it's hard to predict which version of her will show up from week to week.
Race 9
(3) MONOPOLY faces much easier here and he can boss this group. (6) ODD BALL got going too late last week, then inherited a win when the victor was tossed for cutting inside three pylons. He can be a late threat again. (5) QUADRANGLE can be a bit of an in-and-outer, but from this good post he can trip out and hit the ticket. (4) DERF HANOVER should get situated near the front early and follow along to take a share.
Race 10
(2) HOCKEY HANOVER popped and stopped, but that was coming off a month break and now he drops several classes. He gets the nod here. (8) EYES COOL has a wicked late kick on his best day and he could get a setup here; beware. (1) SEEYOU MEN is sharp and dangerous and he's the third one that I'll use in the Late Pick 4 cash leg. (5) MAJOR MUSCLE raced huge last time, but these are tougher, and a smaller share is likely for him in this spot. (3) WHISKEY TAX had a decent seasonal debut and he could better this placing if he works out a good trip.