Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 5/13 Analysis
Best Bet: FAST N FIRST (8th)
Spot Play: LANESIDE SPORTSGRL (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 2,3,5/3,4,7/2,3,8/2/3,4,6,8 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 - 2/3,4,6,8/1,8,9/4,5,6 = $36
Late Pick 4 - 4,5,6/7/1/1,3,5,7 = $12
MEET STATS: 308 - 991 / $1,797.00 (-$183.00)
BEST BETS: 42 - 91 / $140.60 (-$34,30)
SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 91 / $153.30 (-$28.70)
Race 1
(3) CONFESSION SESSION managed to get bottled up for most of the mile last time and when she got free it was too late; one more chance. (2) SCARLETT RAIDER was a solid second in that same race and he is the logical one to beat here. (5) OBERTO is capable if he can stay flat, but that's hard to predict from race to race. (9) ABSYNTHE HANOVER gets Lasix and faces easier for her sophomore debut. She could move forward here.
Race 2
(7) XELENE BAYAMA keeps winning the hard way and starting from out there, she could bring another good price. I'll stick with her. (3) PROTECT BLUE CHIP need only start her move earlier to be right there at the wire. The inside post can help with that here. (4) LEAVING A LEGACY won nicely when claimed by Shepherd and then was vet scratched due to lameness. Take a look at her on the track. (5) ONLY ONE STAR has been win shy this year so far, but her last effort was a good one and she should contend again.
Race 3
(8) ODD BALL powered home two starts back, trotting his back 1/2 in 55 1/5 without threatening. If he stays flat here, he may be able to pass all of these late. (2) Y A MUSCLE MASS has been close to unbeatable at Flamboro recently and he should make his presence felt vs. these. (3) CINDY LYNN was used up early last time racing over a track rated two seconds slow. She could get a good trip racing near the lead here. (5) HEY LIVVY has popped and stopped a few times in a row at Yonkers, so I'm not sure she can be trusted at this point, but you know where she's headed leaving the gate.
Race 4
(2) LANESIDE SPORTSGRL retains Roy after a couple of decent efforts and I have a feeling that the first time she gets asked for big speed she is going to explode with a dominant win; maybe tonight? (3) SHESONEHOTWRITER had a tightener and she shows at least one line from last year that would put her right there with these. (9) SUGAR SHADOW qualified fast enough to make her an instant contender vs. this group. (8) LADY CHRISTINE's debut mile was good enough to put her in contention for a share here if she could duplicate that effort.
Race 5
(8) RAMAS LAST SON is racing great currently and he gets a slight nod in a contentious Pick 5 cash leg. (6) EYES COOL flew late to win two starts back and if he can stay flat here, he is in with an upset chance. (4) MARQUIS VOLO was outclassed last week but he drops back down to a spot where he should contend; using. (3) PINK PISTOL is quirky but when she trots entire miles she can be a threat. She's another that I'll use in the multis in a tough race.
Race 6
(8) MACHPAPERSCISSORS kicks home quickly every time he is on the track. He just needs to get position to be a big factor here. (9) PHILS SUN won from a tough post at Flamboro and this barn continues to send them out ready; using. (1) LYONS COPPERTOP was only a 1/2-length behind one of the North America Cup favorites in his May 3rd qualifier and he could be right there at a price in his sophomore debut. (4) BIG BULLY was nailed by Phils Sun last time but he can contend for a smaller share here.
Race 7
(6) CUE HALL trotted his eyeballs out in defeat last week to one of the top older trotting mares in the sport. A repeat of that effort can get him a win here. (5) P L JILL shakes her white-hot stablemate here, which should make her a major player in this spot. (4) DREAM TOGETHER is obviously capable but I'm sure she has a steady diet of stakes on her menu this summer so she may get a conservative trip. (7) B YOYO is sharp and he could make it tough on the choice if he decides to leave with him off the gate.
Race 8
(7) FAST AND FIRST was simply outpaced late by a very sharp rival last time in an excellent race for that class. The step up shouldn't affect him if he can pace the same kind of mile here. (2) UPTOWN FUNK also exits a quick race and he should be able to get into contention late vs. these. (6) TALBOTCREEKWHISKEY is in good form and he should sit a trip near the front and take a share. (5) OSIRIS BLUE CHIP adds Lasix and he should be passing some of these late to hit the ticket.
Race 9
(1) FREE WILLY HANOVER drops to a spot where he should control the race if put into play early by Drury; top call. (8) O NARUTAC PERFETTO drops and he should be passing many of these down the lane; using underneath. (3) MIAMI is an interesting shipper who might prefer bigger tracks but I'll watch him once and perhaps wait for a class drop. (7) R FIRST CLASS didn't notch a win last year, but he is capable of taking a share vs. these if ready.
Race 10
(7) ARSENAL SEELSTER's mile in this class from April 6th is plenty good enough to win this and he could be a good price here; top call. (1) JAYDENS PLACE should get a better trip here and he's on my late Pick 4 ticket. (3) ROCKIN WIZARD is sitting on a big race it seems and he's hard to leave out in this spot. (5) HES A SENSATION's 27-flat kickers puts him in the conversation; consider for exotics. (10) HOMEY JOE can wind up from far back and land on the bottom of the Super or High-5 at a price.