Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 4/29 Analysis
Best Bet: MUSICAL RHYTHM (8th)
Spot Play: MOVIE STAR (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,2/1,2,4/2,3/1,2,3/2,3,7,8 = $28.80
Early Pick 4 - 1,2,3/2,3,7,8/5,7/6,8 = $48
Late Pick 4 - 5/5,6,7/3,4,5,6/1,5,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 284 - 906 / $1,654.50 (-$157.50)
BEST BETS: 37 - 83 / $129.10 (-$36.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 84 / $138.40 (-$29.60)
Race 1
(2) NORTHERN CAVALIER's 27-flat kicker sticks out and while he could get over-bet off that fast closing speed, he should be a major player here. (1) GRIMMIE HANOVER was decent last year and he merits a long look off his good qualifier. (10) SPEEDY DUNCAN fits vs. these and he can be right there if he gets good position early. (9) KING FOR LIFE stole a slow opening 1/2 last week but couldn't seal the deal. I see more of the same from him here.
Race 2
(4) ALPHA SEELSTER steps up here, but he barely broke a sweat last week rolling by effortlessly to beat non-winners of three; call to repeat. (1) A J CASH beat some decent veteran competitors at Flamboro last time. He fits here; using. (2) EYES COOL finished well in his recent qualifier and he adds Lasix here. I'll use him in the Pick 4. (5) BATTING STATS gets McNair back and he's worth a look for the exotics.
Race 3
(2) MOVIE STAR's qualifier was decent, he adds Lasix and he lands in a good spot for his sophomore debut; top call. (3) STONEBRIDGE SURF also qualified very well and this could turn into a battle of the two colts making their seasonal debuts. (5) ONEDARKKNIGHT raced okay last time and if he gets position early again, he can stick for a slice. (8) BETTER BE GOUDA has three shares in seven tries and he looks best of the rest.
Race 4
(1) APRIL ROSE ripped off two nice wins at Flamboro and she figures to get a good trip on the lead or in the pocket here. She should also bring a good price; slight nod. (3) MARQUIS VOLO steps up but he comes off a sensational win and he should be heard from here. (2) KAMERAN HANOVER should get a good trip and he can be dangerous down the lane. (9) MYSTERY BET impressed last week, but I'm not sure he can pass all of these. I'll use him underneath.
Race 5
(7) SWIFT ALLY missed some time but she could be any kind and I'll give her the nod here off her impressive initial win. (3) FARGO HANOVER finished well in both qualifiers leading to this sophomore debut and the trainer sends them ready; using. (2) FARMGIRL TOUGH showed some promise last year and she's another who can win this if she gets put into the race early. (8) BLUEWATER BEACH qualified fast enough to suggest she is yet another contender in this contentious-looking dash.
Race 6
(5) MISTER MAGIC keeps rolling along and he has shown that he has a nose for the wire; call to repeat. (7) ODD BALL was visibly motoring late last week but he was simply too far behind. He gets a better post here and he should be a big factor. (6) MR CONTESTANT had a great record last year and he goes for trainer Boyd here; using. (4) WESMONT will be the one to catch again, likely. He can better this placing if he gets a breather.
Race 7
(8) P L IDAHO seemed antsy racing in the pocket last week and he drops here. I expect Roy to roll him and take no prisoners. (6) CROCADILE CANYON goes for Auciello off the claim here, which has been a deadly angle for a long time; using. (2) DARCEE N has raced better the last few starts and he should be coming late to take another good share. (1) BS TYRRIFIC had no chance last time after breaking from the start. I expect him to hit the ticket if he stays flat.
Race 8
(5) MUSICAL RHYTHM is the current king of the trotting castle at Mohawk Park and he has been known to reel off a long string of wins when he's at the top of his game. He should be tough to beat again. (1) P L JILL made a middle move then tired late. Maybe the choice is just sharper right now. (3) PERFETTO was impressive last week and while this is obviously tougher, he can take a share. (6) B YOYO is frequently a victim of pace and trip. I'll use him on the bottom here.
Race 9
(5) LUCKLST BLUEGRASS goes for a hot barn off the claim and his price may be good due to last week's dull line. I'll stab here. (7) LISVINNIE is sharp, he just needs a trip. Perhaps Jamieson will roll him this time. (6) PRINCE GIOVANNI brushed and crushed last week but he loses the injured McClure here; mixed signals. (1) MY TEEN IDOL should be closing late to take a share vs. these.
Race 10
(6) MAGIC NIGHT couldn't hold off the winner who was dropping from the top class last week, but that was a good effort and he gets the nod here. (4) HEMI SEELSTER may have better luck trying to bottom-out this field; beware. (3) SEEYOU MEN should be a big closing threat here; using. (5) EXEMPLAR is in solid form and he wasn't far behind the choice last time; using underneath
Race 11
(6) ADVERSITY rarely gets bet, but he fits well here and he gets a good post; slight nod. (5) RAMAS LAST SON raced tough last week from a worse post. He rates highly here. (1) MUSICAL SPELL should like the inside post and I expect him to get position near the front early then stick for a share. (2) MISTER MUSCLE finished behind the choice last time but he figures for a share leaving from the inside. (3) BANK GUARD made up a lot of ground late and he gets a much better post here. Consider him when you construct Tri, Super and High-5 tickets.