Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 4/22 Analysis
Best Bet: MISTER MAGIC (5th)
Spot Play: OUTLAW GUNPOWDER (7th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,5,6/3,4,7/1,4/1,2,3,8/3,5 = $28.80
Early Pick 4 - 1,2,3,8/3,5/4,8/3,9,10 = $48
Late Pick 4 - 3,9,10/2,5,6/4,9/2,8,10 = $54
MEET STATS: 272 - 865 / $1,600.60 (-$129.40)
BEST BETS: 36 - 79 / $123.10 (-$34.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 19 - 80 / $138.40 (-$21.60)
Race 1
(5) SURE FIRE KATIE was sent first-up into the teeth of the fastest quarter of the race last time and that was mission impossible. She has a big shot vs. these. (6) MY BABY GIRL hinted at some ability last year and she attracts Roy here; using. (1) WINDSUN JAGRA is getting closer and she could take this with the right trip. (8) SUNSHINE INN has been decent this year and she should sneak into the Tri or Super.
Race 2
Horses making their initial 2019 starts look like the main contenders here and of those, I'll side with (4) SHESA SWEETHEART, who moves into a barn that sends them ready. (7) MERCEDES TALMA also gets a barn switch to a noted trotting trainer and she would be no surprise here. (3) OBERTO shows one good qualifier this year after not being able to make the races at age 2. Trainer Henriksen appears to have turned him around; beware. (8) CONFESSION SESSION - with 4 slices in 10 starts last year - can close for a share.
Race 3
(1) P L JILL skipped a week but that hasn't bothered her in the past and she has won three of the last four in this top class. She gets the nod over (4) MUSICAL RHYTHM, who has found his best stride and should be the one to catch. (3) B YOYO can be hot-and-cold but he gets Roy back here following a good try and he's not out of this. (2) FREE WILLY HANOVER will be looking to trip-out and take a good share again.
Race 4
(3) P L IDAHO goes for Moreau off the claim here and I can see teamster Roy making a middle move to the front then bottoming out this field. (2) PRINCE GIOVANNI can sit a good trip on the inside most of the way here and if the race falls apart, he may sneak by them all at a price late. (8) LISVINNIE is as tough as nails when he is right, but he needs to find a way to work out a better trip from out there. (1) LUCKLST BLUEGRASS is another to consider coming off a strong effort and moving inside.
Race 5
(5) MISTER MAGIC exits the fastest race and no one was catching Hemi Seelster in that one. He can bounce back vs. these. (3) SHES GOT PIZAZZ has become a very consistent mare and she's hard to leave off multi-race tickets at this point. (4) STORMONT CHARLOTTE figures to sit a good trip here and she should take a good share. (9) ODD BALL would be rated higher if he drew better. I don't see him passing them all in this spot.
Race 6
(8) SETANTA was passing horses in the fastest quarter of the race last time and he picked up Roy at scratch time; top call. (4) MYSTERY BET couldn't seal the deal last week but that was a good effort and he should be a big threat again. (6) MANOFMANYIMAGES gets McClure back here and they teamed up for a win in early March; using. (7) MUSICAL SPELL is in very good form and he won't get bet here. Consider using him underneath.
Race 7
(3) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER is as good as he gets right now and I'll ride him while he's hot. (9) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE didn't get claimed last week for the first time in a couple of months. He remains a consistent threat at this level. (10) WESTERN PHIL was a blowout winner last time he raced at this level. If he blasts off early and makes front, post may not matter. (1) BRICKMAN should go much better here with post relief; using underneath.
Race 8
In what could turn out to be an announcer's nightmare, class-droppers (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO and (2) PERFETTO may be battling to the line to decide this dash. I'll side with the former, who was a strong winner in a similar class two starts back. (6) HEMI SEELSTER comes off a sharp front-end winning effort and he's a threat to repeat if he can get a breather. (7) SEEYOUMEN has developed a nice closing kick and he should be coming on late to hit the Super or Tri.
Race 9
(4) PINK PISTOL drops, moves to what should be a better post and gets McNair; top call. (9) ODDS ON AMETHYST comes off a good effort and he gets class relief here. He is dangerous despite his post. (6) WESMONT moves up off a sharp effort but he figures to land on the bottom of the Tri or Super. (5) REVENUE AGENT was no match for Wesmont last week. He is in the mix here, though.
Race 10
(10) JAYDENS PLACE was double entered in this class prior to winning Thursday night in his first start for Moreau and he could prove tough to beat even from post 10 here. You won't see anything close to the 15/1 morning line quote. (2) CARTOON DADDY gets Lasix and a better post and he's in with a decent shot. (8) JOES BID drops and he exits the fastest races. He's hard to leave out in this spot. (5) BANK SHOT HANOVER can close to finish on the edges. (4) OSBORNE SEELSTER can last longer in this spot and he should at least land in the High-5 somewhere.