Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 4/15 Analysis
Best Bet: CATCH THE DREAM (5th)
Spot Play: BAUTISTA (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Pick 5 - 1,4,5,7/1,4,7/1,4,8/5,7,8/1 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 - 5,7,8/1/1,2,3/4,7,8,9 = $36
Late Pick 4: 4,7,8,9/1,2,3/3/5,6,8 = $36
MEET STATS: 260 - 824 / $1,528.70 (-$119.30)
BEST BETS: 35 - 76 / $120.10 (-$31.90)
SPOT PLAYS: 18 - 76 / $132.10 (-$19.90)
Race 1
This looks like a good spot for an invader to strike, so I'll take a stab with (7) BANK GUARD. He moves into the potent Boyd barn and attracts driver Filion, who is having a very good meet. (5) CONSTANTINO woke up for McClure last time and that teamster sticks; using. (4) CLASS ME NICE drops and keeps McNair. A form reversal for him in this spot wouldn't be a big shock. (1) MYSTERY BET's Flamboro line is a toss considering the early break. He fits here and is another with a chance in a wide-open kickoff to the Pick 5.
Race 2
(7) A J CASH dropped three seconds last week in taking a new life's mark and the short field helps him here; call to repeat despite his post. (1) SHES GOT PIZAZZ provided perfect cover for the choice last time and then got picked off right on the wire. She's an obvious contender but a similar scenario could develop here. (4) STORMONT CHARLOTTE was decent racing in a tougher class and she is the third one that I'll use in this Pick 5. (2) HIGHLAND TOPHILL is worth a look for the exotics returning at a reduced level here.
Race 3
(4) ST LADS CASH was nailed late by a tripped-out winner last time. He may try to give them the slip early this time leaving from a better post; top call. (8) MC PAT was the rival that got by the choice late as he moved up with the driver change to McClure as many have recently; using. (1) CARSONS SHADOW obviously faces better here, but he's worth a look off his blowout win in his sophomore debut at Flamboro. (5) OVERLORD should sit a good trip again and take a smaller share.
Race 4
Interesting dash here with several horses changing barns. I'll go price shopping with (8) BS TYRRIFIC making his debut for a barn that strikes frequently in these types of situations. (7) CROCADILE CANYON is as good as he has been in a long time and the classy veteran is hard to leave out right now. (5) DOVUTO HANOVER interestingly got retaken by Auciello for this start, so I'll use him in multi-race bets. (2) DARCEE tries hard every week, but a smaller share seems likely.
Race 5
(1) CATCH THE DREAM drops and gets a good post from which to work out a winning trip. He looks like the most logical single to me in the Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequence. (6) ESQUIRE goes to Moreau off the claim but he steps up. He isn't impossible, but he may find the choice too tough. (3) ADVERSITY looks solid to make it onto the Superfecta starting from an inside post. (2) MUSICAL SPELL is another good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 6
(3) FREE WILLY HANOVER's price climbs now and from this post, he may be able to work out a golden trip like he did when he won two straight Preferreds; slight nod. (1) MUSICAL RHYTHM gets to dodge P L Jill here, so he is a logical top contender in this spot. (2) ST JAMES GATE is as good as he's ever been right now and he's one I must use in this Pick 4. (5) CUE HALL is always around the money and he should get a good trip here to take a share.
Race 7
(7) ON CRUISE CONTROL moves into a hot barn here and gets my nod in a race with a few possibilities. (4) PRINCE GIOVANNI can trip-out near the front in this spot and he has a puncher's chance at upsetting. (9) LISVINNIE is hot and cold but he comes off a solid effort and his best beats these; using. (8) AVALANCHE HANOVER is right there every week and his good early speed should put him in the mix here in a race that looks like a spread leg of the Pick 4s to me.
Race 8
(2) MISTER MAGIC keeps rolling and the excellent late kick that he has developed makes him a top threat again. (3) ON THE SLY faces tougher here but with the improvement he has shown in Moreau's barn, he could take these with a trip. (1) MAGIC NIGHT was a winner last time he raced in this class. He should bounce back with a good effort. (4) KAMERAN HANOVER is classy enough for these and he gets a trainer change here, but I'm inclined to watch one from him coming off a break.
Race 9
(3) BAUTISTA never took a breather last week and he was picked-off late. He looks best here and if he can steal one slow quarter, he could be long gone. (5) MONOPOLY keeps charging home quickly and he should be the one the choice will need to worry about late. (6) FLY BEYOND gets McNair back here but he's had many chances this year and hasn't been able to convert; small share predicted. (4) SEEYOU MEN should be closing late for a piece of this.
Race 10
(6) OUTLAW GUNPOWDER has hit the top of his form cycle and he could be good for another starting from a good post. (8) MERVS TRU LEGACY is getting closer racing out of the Johnson barn and he would be no surprise here. (5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE gets claimed every week, so he has been hard-used for a while, but he is still a factor regardless. (1) BLUE EYED COWBOY comes in from Flamboro off the claim and he should be good for at least a slice here. (4) MCSINNER MAN has a nice closing kick to offer on his best day and he could spice up the exotics here with a repeat of his most recent effort.