Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 3/4 Analysis
Best Bet: B YOYO (8th)
Spot Play: ESQUIRE (5th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 5/2,3,4,5,6/2,4,5/5,8/1,5,8 = $18
EARLY PICK 4: 5,8/1,5,8/2,3,8/6,8 $36
LATE PICK 4: 6,8/1/2,4,5/4 = $6
MEET STATS: 183 - 602 / $1,012.80 (-$191.20)
BEST BETS: 26 - 54 / $91.30 (-$16.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 54 / $114.20 (+$6.20)
Race 1
(5) HEY LIVVY tried the overland route last time and the pace and flow of the race was totally against her. Moving to a much better post, she should blast off early here and she'll be tough to catch if she makes front. (4) BIGBOY ROSCO has developed an excellent late kick and if he is in range again turning for home, he will be the one to fend off. (2) STORMONT CHARLOTTE got a perfect trip but she couldn't seal the deal and got passed by the pocket-sitter late. She should be in the mix again here. (6) SHIVERED should go better here starting from a better slot but a smaller share is predicted.
Race 2
(5) CROCADILE CANYON drops back to the claimed level and he has a better shot here - especially if a claim gets entered on him. (2) LEVY TAYLORE was decent in his first start off the Johnson claim and the short field suits him; using. (4) CHEYENNE FORD is always right there it seems; this is a tricky race for such a small field. (3) THINK AGAIN drops back into a claimer and he is likely to leave harder which also gives him a shot.
Race 3
(2) DERF HANOVER raced decently vs. better at The Meadowlands and he goes for Moreau here; top call in his Mohawk Park debut. (4) VANQUISH KRONOS looks like a solid newcomer and trainer O'Sullivan sends them ready. She's the other one that I'll use in the Pick 5. (5) BAUTISTA beat a decent field easily, but I'm not sure he'll handle both of the top two here; smaller share predicted. (6) PERFETTO is in great form since moving to the Henriksen barn and he should take at least a slice here.
Race 4
Two class droppers look best here, but (8) ER QUINN has slightly better recent from so I'll side with him over (5) SURF REPORT, but use both in multi-race bets. (1) KWICKY KWANZAA raced okay here on Thursday night and he should share again if he goes. (3) DARCEE N is always good to use on the bottom of Tris and Supers.
Race 5
(8) ESQUIRE figures to wake up in this spot and his price might be decent starting from out there. (5) BATTING STATS came close at this level on February 14th, but he was in to go on Saturday; using. (1) LMC MASS OAK can sit a trip and hit the ticket here. (10) JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL blew up the tote board here on Thursday night, but the same perfect trip is unlikely.
Race 6
(2) ILL BE BACK moved up in his second start for Auciello and he was right there in the photo last time. He looks good vs. this group and gets my nod over (3) DON'T DILLY DALLLY, who had little chance in two starts vs. the very sharp Kenny Joe. (8) SPEED TO MARKET would have a decent chance if he blasts off the gate for position this time going for a hot barn. (7) SHRIMP AND GRITS can take another small share vs. these.
Race 7
(8) BEE IN CHARGE beat up on weaker and attracted a claim, but he's razor-sharp and can handle this step up if he gets put into the race. (6) MAGIC NIGHT was live as expected last week but he was a bit lucky when the winner split horses inside of him in the lane. He's a contender right back. (5) ODDS ON AMETHYST drops and he should wake up with the class and post relief; using underneath. (7) HEMI SEELSTER should be a pace threat again, but he needs to find more late.
Race 8
(1) B YOYO draws perfectly for a run at his fourth straight Preferred win and he's hard to go against right now. (5) P L JILL didn't have it racing first up last time, but she can bounce back if given an easier trip. (6) MUSICAL RHYTHM is capable vs. these with the right trip and he moves up on a wet track if that condition presents itself. (2) BUZZ was game in defeat to the choice last week and trainer Auciello has him at the top of his game. He can beat this prediction if he gets a good trip.
Race 9
(4) WILD AND CRAZY GUY takes a big class drop here and you know where McNair is pointing him when they leave the gate; top call. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO destroyed weaker as expected, but that mile was so good that I'll use him here in the late Pick 4 as a price alternative to the choice who figures to be bet heavily. (2) SO NOT COOL was out of position last week and he should go better here, but a smaller share is likely. (6) EXEMPLAR tripped out last week under a slick Roy steer but from this post he will likely take the overland route and close late for a slice.
Race 10
(4) PHIL THE THRILL lands in a good spot here and his February 22nd qualifier indicates readiness; top call. (5) NEEDLECREST couldn't go with a leader that was a huge favorite last time, but that effort was good enough that he can be an exacta factor here. (2) NICKLE BAG has seen better days, but his class alone should be enough to land him a slice vs, these. (6) ELM GROVE KABOOM is improving and he could finish higher than predicted here if he can work out a trip starting from out there. for (1) SURPRISE HANOVER frequently finishes on the edges and from the inside post he should sit a trip and make the bottom of the Tri or High 5.