Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 2/4 Analysis
Best Bet: P L MUNSON (2nd)
Spot Play: HEAD TURNING JAG (3rd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 1,7,8/2/1,5,9/5,9/2,5,7 = $10.80
EARLY PICK 4: 5,9/2,5,7/6,7/3,6,7 = $36
LATE PICK 4: 3,6,9/6,7/3,4,7,8/1,2 = $48
MEET STATS: 138 - 440 / $772.00 (-$108.00)
BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $62.70 (-$15.30)
SPOT PLAYS: 11 - 39 / $90.20 (+$12.20)
Race 1
(1) FLY BEYOND lands in a better spot here, draws better and gets McNair back. There's lots to like. (7) PERFETTO was bet like he couldn't lose when debuting out of the Henriksen barn and he came through with a solid win. His biggest issue has always been with his gait. If that's solved, he can be a new and improved racehorse. (8) DONATO LANE brings it every week and he's hard to leave out. (6) QUADRANGLE is another who has improved sharply recently and that makes for an interesting opener.
Race 2
(2) P L MUNSON paced a wicked back 1/2 in his debut and he only needs a more aggressive steer to graduate here. (7) PICKEM gets Roy which could mean a blast off the gate is coming in this spot. (9) BEACH BABY BEE was closing best on Monday night, but it was too late, and I fear the same trip is in the offing here. (5) ASCENDANT could get put into play here and I'll use him underneath.
Race 3
In a race where it looks like on paper that no one wants the front early, I'm going to conclude that Henry will try to send class-dropping (9) HEAD TURNING JAG right down the road. (5) MIGHTY NICKY often hangs, but perhaps the move to Moreau's barn will wake him up here. (1) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is obviously good enough to beat these, but the 1-hole may not be best for him considering his frequent gait issues. (4) MYSTICAL MISSION can close for at least a small piece vs. these.
Race 4
(9) JENKINS CREEK goes for Moreau here and the last two times he acquired him, he won immediately and one of those wins was a wire job from the 9-hole. I'll take him to beat likely chalk (5) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE, who was last Monday's Best Bet here, when the card was canceled due to cold, but I'll use both in the multis. (2) ARAZI doesn't win often on this circuit, but he comes off a good third to the choice and he can share here again. (1) HEZA BIG DEALER can use his good early speed to get position then hang around for a slice.
Race 5
(2) BIG RICH tripped out to win last time he was in this class and a repeat is very possible here. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO drops and is sharp, he just needs an honest pace to chase. (7) CATCH THE DREAM is always dangerous at this level and Hudon usually puts him in the race earlier; using. (9) CUE HALL is another class-dropper who merits a look here.
Race 6
(6) BETTOR OPS N took a new life's mark in his first qualifier on North American soil on January 17th and his next qualifier was even better - although raced slower over an off track. It looks like all systems go for this Kiwi invader. (7) KEEP COMING paced a huge 55-flat middle 1/2 last week then understandably stalled. A better-timed move puts him right there. (4) HOMEY JOE flew home to win last time, but this is tougher; using underneath. (3) WEATHERLY is another good one to use on the bottom here.
Race 7
(3) EXEMPLAR races best for Roy and the inner post should help him in this spot; top call. (6) OLE JACK MAGIC got an aggressive steer from Henry last time and it paid off. The step up isn't that steep and Henry sticks. I'll use him. (7) MAJOR MUSCLE woke up with a win last time he raced in this class on December 17th. I'll toss him on Pick 4 tickets, too. (10) LETS LEAVEM raced like a different horse out of the new barn last time but stepping up and moving farthest outside makes him a bit player in my opinion.
Race 8
(6) ON THE SLY has found his groove racing in claimers and I'll call him to repeat here. (9) ZEUS LIGHTNING was a solid 2nd to the choice and it wouldn't take much for him to turn the tables. (3) BEE IN CHARGE was so good last time that I'll use him here, even though a regression off the claim is probable. (2) VERO AMORE BI is capable if he brings anything close to his best, but that's hard to predict at this point.
Race 9
(7) LETS HAVE ANOTHER looked very sharp winning his debut and he can come right back here and double up. (6) AREUKIDINME CABBIE was narrowly beaten by a colt that came right back and won his third straight on Thursday night. He's the main danger. (3) L WEATHER B raced decently Monday night. He can come right back and take a share here. (4) THISISHOWWEDOIT showed some talent last fall and he's another that should contend for a share here.
Race 10
(8) P L JILL is very good when she's on her game and right now it appears as though she couldn't be much better; call to repeat. (3) DANCER HALL was a narrow loser to the choice last time, and he is a logical inclusion in this late Pick 4. (7) B YOYO is in great form, but he is likely to be closing belatedly for a slice here again. (4) MUSICAL RHYTHM seems to move up on an off track, so keep an eye on that factor when considering his chances.
Race 11
(2) BETTORS WESTERN was a scratch here Monday night, but he fits well in this spot and he should come out swinging after shipping in. (1) DON MCWHITE was a game 2nd here on Monday night and he should be a threat. (6) MITT JAGGER is another coming back quickly who can share here. (3) SHADOW MARGEAUX has seen better days, but if he wakes up, he can contend for a share here. (10) OSBORNE SEELSTER can blast for position and stick around to make the High-5.