Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 2/3 Analysis

Meet Stats – 144 – 460 / $820.90 (-$101.80)
Best Bets – 18 – 45 / $59.30 (- $30.70)
Spot Plays – 10 – 45 / $76.10 (-$13.90)
Best Bet – REFI - (2ND)
Spot Play – DERF HANOVER - (5TH)
Early Pick 5 – 1,5/5/3,5,6/4,5,7/7,8 = $7.20
Late Pick 5 – 4,7,8/1,4,6/4,7/2,5/4,9,10 = $21.60
Early Pick 4 – 4,5,7/7,8/4,7,8/1,4,6 = $54
Late Pick 4 – 1,4,6/4,7/2,5/4,9,10 = $36
Race 1 – CLM HDCP $20,000 to $25,000 - **GTD $75,000 Pick 5**
(1) LEADER TONIGHT was taken by Auciello when winning last week and he likely kicks off the Pick 5 as a winning chalk. (5) OCEANVIEW MAGNUM stayed in last week when claimed by another barn that clicks at a high rate with fresh claims. He should be the main threat to the choice. (2) BUDDHA BLUE CHIP is right there every week and he has the knack for working out great trips on live cover. He's not out of this. (7) HES A SENSATION is capable of better and he could be closer here if he finds some good cover.
Race 2- PEPSI TROTTING SERIES - 3 & 4 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS
(5) REFI easily rolled by the odds-on chalk last week and he stands out here but don't expect more than 50 cents on your dollar. (3) STORMONT RARE should be better with his nose on the gate; Exacta factor. (6) CHARMBO GOLDEN is another who should improve here if the track is dry; consider for the exotics. (2) THELASTONESTANDING should sit an inside following trip and beat a couple of these.
Race 3 – PEPSI TROTTING SERIES - 3 & 4 YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS
(5) BLAZING TRAIL has been dynamite since switching to the Gallucci barn and he gets the nod here over (3) ZIG ZAG, who he edged two starts back. (6) STEUBEN HANOVER is capable vs. these and he qualified well showing big late speed. He is a contender if ready. (7) BOO THANG can come on late and land in the bottom of the Super.
Race 4 – CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000 - Pick 4
(4) NEEDLECREST moves inside following a decent effort and he should be a decent price here; top call in a wide-open race. (7) TOMY TERROR is racing well and he is going to pop one of these weeks; maybe tonight? (5) PEFRECT VISTA has improving form and I'll use him on multi-race tickets. (9) REAL WICKED won when claimed but now he moves to the worst post for a low-percentage barn and he loses the hottest driver on the grounds; smaller share predicted.
Race 5 – NW $16,000 L5 or $28,000 L10 or NW $145,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $40,000
(8) DERF HANOVER typically gets aggressive drives from McNair and that's when he performs best. I'll call him to upset the obvious class-dropper (7) P L JILL who can be brilliant or quirky depending on the night and her mood. (3) KAMERAN HANOVER should be closer early here which means he can hit the board. (2) SEEYOU MEN is in the mix for a slice every week; using in the 3-4 slots.
Race 6 – CLM HDCP $15,000 to $18,000 for NW $80,000 LT - Late Pick 5
(4) NO TIME AT ALL was flying late last week and maybe moving back into a claiming handicap from a conditioned race will help his price; top call. (7) AREUKIDDINME CABBIE was a predictable winner last week racing off the fresh claim, but he did look bumpy in a couple of spots. Check this one out on the track. (8) STRATOSPHERE drops back into a claimer for his second start racing out of the Auciello barn and he isn't out of this. (5) STATE OF PLAY should be blasting again and he is a good one to use in Tris and Supers.
Race 7 – 4YO and Younger NW1 or $8,500 LT
(1) KAMBOUCHA was an impressive debut winner and these are no tougher; call to repeat. Not much went right for (4) SEBASTIAN RAY at odds of 30 cents to the dollar last week. He can bounce back here; using. (6) TLF ROYAL LAKE is one of a few making debuts here and he attracts McClure who also drove him in his lone qualifier. I'll toss him on multi-race tickets. (10) CHARMBO PRINCE looked good in his lone qualifier but from post 10 I'll use him underneath in this debut race.
Race 8 – F&M CLM HDCP $10,000 to $12,000
(7) E R RHONDA goes to the potent Fellows barn off the claim and she gets McNair; top call. (4) HAMMERING HALEY provided relentless pressure last week when beating the choice which kept that rival from drifting which is where she wants to be late. She is the main danger. (2) RUSTYS FLYING should sit another good trip and take a share. (5) LUCKY PLAYER took a tin of support at the windows but she rolled off stride at crunch time. She could do better here.
Race 9 - NW $30,500 L5 or NW $210,000 LT AE: OPT CLM $60,000
(5) WILD AND CRAZY GUY loomed dangerously last week despite breaking early. If he stays flat here, he should be tough. (2) BIG RICH blew up the tote board last week and he projects to sit another great trip on the back of pacesetter (1) HEMI SEELSTER; using Rich on multi-race tickets and Hemi underneath. (4) ODDS ON AMETHYST should deploy a deep closing approach here and he can make it into the Tri or Super.
Race 10 - NW $3,000 L5 or $7,000 L10
(9) CINNABAR DRAGON drops to the bottom here and McNair should be looking to send him right down the road. (10) SILVER BEAST had an impossible trip last time now he starts along the pylons; expect improvement. (4) SENIOR K's form is improving each start; consider for Pick 4 and Pick 5 tickets. (2) PHIL THE THRILL was a winner in this class last week so he obviously merits a look. (1) NATIVES SWEET LOU should be good for at least a check in this spot.