Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 2/18 Analysis
Best Bet: LETS HAVE ANOTHER (2nd)
Spot Play: JENKINS CREEK (4th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,9/3/6/1,9/2,4,5,6,10 = $6
EARLY PICK 4: 1,9/2,4,5,6,10/2/1,3,6 = $30
LATE PICK 4: 1,3,6/5,6/2,6/1,3,6 = $36
MEET STATS: 157 - 518 / $892.90 (-$143.10)
BEST BETS: 20 - 46 / $71.30 (-$20.70)
SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 46 / $95.20 (+$3.20)
Race 1
(4) QUADRANGLE again gets a post edge on (9) HEY LIVVY - who is on everyone's watch list after her flying finish last week. Because I think the former may be an overlay again, I'll side with him. The latter was certainly flying last week, but she saved all her speed for one move. She contends here but may get overbet. (3) PERFETTO wasn't far back in the same race and he is another that could turn the tables with the right trip. (1) MONOPOLY will likely set the pace again and hang around for a slice.
Race 2
(3) LETS HAVE ANOTHER simply towers over this group right now and another short-priced win should be coming for him. (2) SHRIMP AND GRITS should be better starting from an inner post and he can complete this exacta. (5) GOODERTHANGOUDA has raced well in both starts and he should be closing for another slice vs. these. (4) HOWMAC DIAMOND looks the best of the rest.
Race 3
(6) JIMMY BE GOOD closed like he was shot out of a cannon last week when going for the Moreau barn off the claim. The short field helps him; call to repeat. (5) DOVUTO HANOVER was game but he couldn't find the same gear to go with the choice last week. He should set the pace again. (2) PRINCE GIOVANNI can sit a trip again here, but he is another that couldn't match the choice's brush last week. (1) LONE WOLF TERROR is quirky, and he leaves the Auciello barn here after he was good in two straight. I have no idea what to expect from him here but will play to beat him on the barn change
Race 4
(9) JENKINS CREEK set the pace on a night where not one horse that was leading at the 3/4 pole won a race. He has a history of winning quickly after being claimed by Moreau and I'll stick with him. (1) HEZA BIG DEALER doesn't win very often but he goes for a hot barn off the claim here and he's the other one that I'll use in the multis. (6) MYBROTHERGEORGE is in good form, but he will likely be closing belatedly for a slice here. (10) ER QUINN isn't likely to get the same great trip he got last time, but a quick start may see him land in the Super.
Race 5
(2) HEAD TURNING JAG re-emerged from a mid-race shuffle to come on for second vs. a class-dropping winner last week and he fits well here; slight nod. (5) HEMI SEELSTER should be able to blast to the front off the gate here and that gives him a solid chance to win this; using. (6) GREAT MAGIC has hit his best form and he's a good one to use underneath in this spot. (4) FLYING ISA N moves up off a nice win, but he didn't beat much there; small share predicted.
Race 6
(2) SURF REPORT was just short last time when beaten by a pocket-sitter. He looks solid here. (8) CROCADILE CANYON continues to fly at the end of his miles but is again hamstrung by the post draw. (5) REIKI finished well for third on Thursday night and he can take a piece of this. (4) BOOTS N BRIAN looks best of the rest here.
Race 7
(6) BIG RICH got shuffled last week and he couldn't make up the deficit. He may get a pocket trip all the way here which would give him every chance vs. these. (3) CUE HALL was dead game in defeat and he will probably be the one to catch again. (1) FLY BEYOND was also right there in the same race where several were close on the wire. This race will come down to trip. (4) ST JAMES GATE couldn't seal the deal on the lead now he moves up and he figures to be a fringe player vs. these.
Race 8
(6) P L JILL continues to race well, and she gets a slight nod over the 'now' horse (5) B YOYO who was much the best last week but hasn't strung wins together here at this level before and may get overbet here. (7) DANCER HALL had the worst trip last time and from the outermost post here he may not do any better trip-wise; using underneath. (2) MUSICAL RHYTHM is capable on his best day, but he definitely moves up if the track is wet.
Race 9
(6) SOME PLAYA wasn't far back in this class Thursday night. He gets my nod if he goes here. (2) SHADOW MARGEAUX looks like he is returning to form now, and his best race would crush these. (1) ARSENAL SEELSTER should get an easier trip here, so he can share. (4) SURPRISE HANOVER has improving form and he can crack the exotics here.
Race 10
(3) SEEYOU MEN had trot late last week but he was too far back. He is a contender here. (6) APRIL ROSE has the speed to take these on a trip down the road and she's another that I'll use in this Pick 4. (1) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO moves back up off a win, but he's not out of this. (2) EXEMPLAR should be closing for a share vs. these. (Note: original pick LETS LEAVEM was scratched)