Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 1/7 Analysis
Best Bet: R BAZINGGA (4th)
Spot Play: MEADOWBRANCH MEMO (2nd)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 3,4,5,9/2,3,5/4,9/4/1,5,8,9 = $19.20
EARLY PICK: 4/1,5,8,9/1,5,6/7,9 = $24
LATE PICK 4: 7,9/2,4/2,9/4,6 = $16
MEET STATS: 102 - 310 / $570.80 (-$49.20)
BEST BETS: 11 - 28 / $40.80 (-$15.20)
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 29 / $81.90 (+$23.90)
Race 1
(4) CHARMS LITTLE SIS changes barns, adds Lasix and she shows a quick last 1/4 in her qualifier. She should be tough vs. these. (3) CARDIFF is better than she's shown since returning from a break and Jamieson may roll her early here; using. (5) CLASSIC BLACKJACK - who finished in the exacta 10 times last year - drops a level here and she should be heard from. (9) BEACHES BE CRAZY is also worth a look sporting a 27 2/5 kicker in her qualifier.
Race 2
(2) MEADOWBRANCH MEMO fires home quickly every week, he just needs to get positioned better. Maybe the driver change will help here. (3) ST JAMES GATE is often a victim of pace and trip, but he fits well in this class and I'll use him in this Pick 5. (5) HEMI SEELSTER dropped and popped now he steps back up, but he's not out of this. (1) PARKHILL NONSTOP is a good one to use underneath in this spot.
Race 3
(9) SO NOT COOL faces much easier here but he still may be a good price starting from out there; top call. (4) TOUCHDOWN AS almost wired this class two starts back. He's logical here. (6) TRY TRY AGAIN got wildly overbet last time when he dropped to this class and he was only an even third. I'll use him underneath here. (2) AMITYVILLE LINDY steps up in good form and he can close for another share.
Race 4
(4) R BAZINGGA gave it a good try in the Valedictory final despite being saddled with an impossible post. He should handle these. (2) REAL WILLEY has done well in Moreau's barn, but the choice should offer a very tough test for him here. (8) STOLEN ART is in great form and he will be passing horses again here; exotics factor. (7) HE GOT SWAGGER should be part of the early pace with the question being how long he'll last vs. tougher here.
Race 5
(9) LONE WOLF TERROR is fast but erratic. If he behaves, he should beat these, but he's too unpredictable for me to single. (8) ITS JUST TOO MUCH should get sent here and the slight class drop may be all he needs; using. (1) PHIL THE THRILL was a good second to Sintra in his qualifier and he's capable if right; using. (5) SHADOW MARGEAUX is another coming out of the same qualifier who is also capable in this class if he has his gait issue fixed.
Race 6
(6) P L JILL was live from the 10-hole last time, but she got hung the mile. Moving to one of the best posts here, she has options; top call. (5) VEYRON has found his best form and he is the one to knock off here. (1) MAJOR MUSCLE is only one race removed from taking a new life's mark. He could topple these with the right trip. (8) STORMONT CHARLOTTE can pass some of these and sneak onto the Super ticket at a price.
Race 7
(5) IDEAL JET takes a big drop and gets Zeron who won several times with him in the summer by rolling him as fast as he could go and bottoming out the field. A big speed try looms. (9) TYMAL PEACEMAKER seems like the logical beneficiary if the late pace collapses and he's the other one I'll use in the Pick 4's. (2) JAYDENS PLACE is a great one to use underneath in this spot. (10) OFFICER JONES is another who should pass many of these late and hit at least the Super ticket.
Race 8
This Preferred Trot seems like it boils down to either (2) DUNBAR HALL or (4) DANCER HALL these days and with the former winning three of the last four in this class he gets my nod, but I'll use both in the late Pick 4. (3) MUSICAL RHYTHM beat both choices in the slop in November so perhaps upgrade his chances if the track is wet. (5) B YOYO figures for a smaller share here.
Race 9
(9) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP may clear these off the gate which would give him a very good chance of a wire job. (2) TOMY TERROR appears to be the only other leaver so he should get a good trip near the front here. (8) DARCEE N figures to take a small share with his lengthy winless streak staying in tact. (10) BRICKMAN is worth a look on the class drop and his chances would be upgraded if he has any claims in on him.
Race 10
(4) BETWEEN THE SHEETS was a sharp winner in this class last time and a repeat is likely here. (6) JONAH beat elders with an impressive move in his debut and he merits a look in this spot. (10) SPORTS CHARM is right there every week, but post likely limits him to a smaller share this time. (7) AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER is another who never misses a check who should be used underneath in this spot. (3) THE COLONEL comes off a decent try and he can crack the High-5 here.