Woodbine Mohawk Park: Monday 1/28 Analysis
Best Bet: CASIMIR OVERDRIVE (7th)
Spot Play: FLY BEYOND (9th)
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
PICK 5: 6,7,9/2,3,6/4,5,8/6,7/6,10 = $21.60
EARLY PICK 4: 6,7/6,10/1,2,4,5/6 = $16
LATE PICK 4: 6/5,7/3,4,8/3,6 = $12
MEET STATS: 128 - 410 / $697.10 (-$122.90)
BEST BETS: 15 - 37 / $55.60 (-$18.40)
SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 37 / $81.90 (+$7.90)
Race 1
(7) LMC MASS OAK finished with a flourish last time and returning for the same tag, he may attract a claim which will mean more aggression; top call either way. (6) ON THE SLY won well in this class racing over a wet track and he should be right there again. (9) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is hard to discount at this level, but him being tagged here could be a red flag. I wouldn't take a short price. (4) BEE IN CHARGE was dynamite off the claim but was claimed again so I'm not sure what to expect now. I'll use underneath.
Race 2
(2) ROSE RUN RANGER fits well at this level and he may enjoy a pace edge with several horses signed on that typically come from off the pace; top call. (3) JIMMY BE GOOD has raced well out of the Fine barn since the claim and he should be right there vs. these. (6) MR MACH JIMMY won last time he raced here at this level and he got aggressive handling that night; using. (5) LISVINNIE is either very good, or the opposite and coming off a break and a claim, I'll play to beat him.
Race 3
(4) CUE HALL raced okay last week when he dropped out of the Preferred, but he was beaten by two other class droppers. He stands a big shot here with the further class drop. (8) ODDS ON AMETHYST won in a similar class two back and he should get put into this race early; using. (5) O NARUTAC PERFETTO has some upset potential here getting driver McClure back. (6) BIG RICH can sit a trip near the front and take a slice vs. these.
Race 4
(6) CHICKIE LOVE was an unlucky loser last week after doing some tough work on the rim. She can win this with a slightly easier trip. (7) NASTY RUMOR nailed the choice right on the line and she's hit her best stride now; using. (3) HEATHER LOVES NY raced tough Monday night and she's right back for more. She's not out of this. (4) REYS IN A ROCKET should sit an inside trip and she can rally for a small share.
Race 5
(6) MAJOR MUSCLE was a winner last time he raced in this class and that was a better field that night. He'll take beating if he gets sent early. (10) LETS LEAVEM was no secret last week on the barn change and he should be a better price here, but he could add some value to the Pick 4 and Pick 5. (5) SETANTA was closing nicely when they hit the wire and he is one I'll consider using underneath here. (7) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY is another who can close that merits consideration for use underneath.
Race 6
(5) HANKS TANK looked good winning last week, and he could be up to the class rise here. (4) CAULFIELD has enough class for these and he's interesting moving into Gallucci's barn here; using. (1) TIKI TAKA can threaten if he can get a better start this time. (2) MISTER MUSCLE isn't out of place in this class and he may be able to work out a good trip near the front.
Race 7
(6) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE was outstanding in victory last time and if he brings that same race, his rivals here are probably racing for second. (1) LIVELY FREDDIE may wake up on the drop here. A much better try from him wouldn't shock me. (5) REAL WICKED and (10) ARAZI were 4th and 3rd, respectively, to the choice last time. Consider using them underneath.
Race 8
(7) P L JILL can be quirky at times, but when she is right, she can be very good and right now, she's on top of her game and I'll ride with her. (5) DANCER HALL was stubborn in defeat to the choice last week and he merits Pick 4 use here. (3) B YOYO steps back up off a solid try and he should hit the ticket again. (6) DUNBAR HALL is obviously capable, but the break last week is worrisome.
Race 9
(3) FLY BEYOND fits better in this class and he should be closer at the start which can make all the difference for him; top call. (4) PERFETTO was no secret last week and he delivered. He's a threat right back. (8) DONATO LANE continues to race well, and his price will be better here. He's a threat. (2) HEY LIVVY will likely try to wire this but I don't see her lasting in this spot.
Race 10
(6) PRINCE GIOVANNI is rolling, and another claim is likely for him here. I'll stick with him. (3) CHEYENNE FORD took a shuffle vs. the choice and racing off the Shepherd claim here, he's on my late Pick 4 ticket. (10) MACKTWOWILLDO is in great form but post 10 likely limits him to a smaller share here. (2) ARRIVED LATE can sit a following trip here then stick around for a share (9) LAUTNER SEELSTER is a closer who can come on late to take a slice here.